A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

We propose a long-term volcanic hazards event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, two complex alkaline composite volcanoes that have erupted 1.8–3 km³ of mafic and felsic magmas from different vent sites during the last 35 ka. This is the maximum period that can be investigated from surface geology and also represents an upper time limit for the appearance of the first phonolites on that volcano. The whole process of the event tree construction was divided into three stages. The first stage included the determination of the spatial probability of vent opening for basaltic and phonolitic eruptions, based on the available geological and geophysical data. The second, involved the analysis of the different eruption types that have characterised the volcanic activity from Teide during this period. The third stage focussed on the generation of the event tree from the information obtained in the two previous steps and from the application of a probabilistic analysis on the occurrence of each possible eruption type. As for other volcanoes, the structure of the Teide-Pico Viejo Event Tree was subdivided into several steps of eruptive progression from general to more specific events. The precursory phase was assumed as an unrest episode of any geologic origin (magmatic, hydrothermal or tectonic), which could be responsible for a clear increase of volcanic activity revealed by geophysical and geochemical monitoring. According to the present characteristics of Teide-Pico Viejo and their past history, we started by considering whether the unrest episode would lead to a sector collapse or not. If the sector collapse does not occur but an eruption is expected, this could be either from the central vents or from any of the volcanoes' flanks. In any of these cases, there are several possibilities according to what has been observed in the period considered in our study. In the case that a sector collapse occurs and is followed by an eruption we considered it as a flank eruption. We conducted an experts elicitation judgement to assign probabilities to the different possibilities indicated in the event tree. We assumed long term estimations based on existing geological and historical data for the last 35 Ka, which gave us a minimum estimate as the geological record for such a long period is incomplete. However, to estimate probabilities for a short term forecast, for example during an unrest episode, we would need to include in the event tree additional information from the monitoring networks, as any possible precursors that may be identified could tell us in which direction the system will evolve. Therefore, we propose to develop future versions of the event tree to include also the precursors that might be expected on each path during the initial stages of a new eruptive event.     

The state of water resources in major Mediterranean islands

This work analyses the state of water resources in six Mediterranean islands: Corsica, Crete, Cyprus, Mallorca, Malta and Sicily. The analysis is focused on the prevailing social, economic and hydroclimatological characteristics of these islands in order to identify the main common features affecting water availability, demand and use. A detailed analysis of the state of water resources in all the considered islands has been carried out. A background of current conditions relating to freshwater availability, quality and use has been established. Different strategies to face water scarcity and enhance water quality in theislands have been assessed in a context of climate change which is a common threat. The identification of similar problems for all the islands highlights the importance of strengthening inter-islands co-operation in the field of sustainable water resources management.     

委内瑞拉1999年特大泥石流灾害

受娜尼拉现象的影响,１９９９－１２－１５～１６委内拉北部阿维拉册区加勒比海沿岸的８个州连降特大暴雨,造成山体大面积滑塌,数十条沟谷同时暴发大规模的泥石流。泥石流造成３万人死亡、经济损失高达１００亿美元,成为本基纪最严重的泥石流灾害,这次泥石汉灾害具有群发性、规模大、低频率和直接入海等特点,对这类泥石流进行泥石流成因、活动规律、预测预报、泥石流与异常气候现象关系和直接入海型泥石流运动规律,沉积特征、     

Seismic fragility of plasterboard partitions via in‐plane quasi‐static tests

The seismic damage of internal partitions may cause significant earthquake loss; this phenomenon is caused by (a) their tendency to exhibit damage for low demand levels and (b) the consequent loss of inventory and breakdown that their collapse can cause. Quasi‐static tests are performed on six 5‐m‐high plasterboard internal partitions, which represent typical partitions in industrial and commercial buildings in the European area. A steel test setup is designed to transfer the load, which is provided by the actuator, to the partition. The testing protocol provided by Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 461 is adopted for the quasi‐static tests. The typical failure mode of the specimens is the buckling of a steel stud, which involves the boards that are attached to the buckled stud. The buckling failure usually concentrates across the plasterboard horizontal joints. A frictional behavior is exhibited for low demand levels, whereas a pinched behavior is shown for moderate‐to‐high demand levels. The interstory drift ratios required to reach a given damage limit state are evaluated using a predefined damage scheme. Based on the experimental data, the fragility curves for three different damage states (DS1, DS2, and DS3) are estimated. The fragility curve yields median interstory drift ratio values of 0.28%, 0.81%, and 2.05% and logarithmic standard deviations of 0.39, 0.42, and 0.46 for DS1, DS2, and DS3, respectively. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving watershed management practices in humid regions

In many parts of the world, watershed management practices have been extremely effective. However, implementation of soil and water conservation technologies in the humid African highlands, while beneficial in the short term, were remarkably unsuccessful in the long term. Insights from community knowledge perspectives have revealed that alternative methods are needed. Although conservation practices are designed to conserve water in semi‐arid areas, safely draining excess water is needed in humid areas. The objective of this paper is to review current watershed management approaches used in humid regions as exemplified by those used in Ethiopian highlands and then based on these findings propose more effective practices. Although current government sponsored practices primarily protect the hillsides, direct run‐off is generated from areas that become saturated on valley bottoms near rivers and on specific parts of the hillsides with degraded soils (or with highly permeable surface soils) and with perched water tables on slowly permeable horizons at shallow depths. In these areas, direct run‐off is increasing with deforestation and the soil degradation, demanding additional drainage ways that evolve in the form of gullies. Therefore, watershed management interventions for erosion control should prioritize revegetation of degraded areas, increasing sustainable infiltration, and rehabilitating gullies situated at saturated bottomlands.     

Deformation history of the Hampden Synform in the Eastern Fold Belt of the Mt Isa terrane

The moderately metamorphosed and deformed rocks exposed in the Hampden Synform, Eastern Fold Belt, in the Mt Isa terrane, underwent complex multiple deformations during the early Mesoproterozoic Isan Orogeny (ca 1590–1500 Ma). The earliest deformation elements preserved in the Hampden Synform are first‐generation tight to isoclinal folds and an associated axial‐planar slaty cleavage. Preservation of recumbent first‐generation folds in the hinge zones of second‐generation folds, and the approximately northeast‐southwest orientation of restored L¹ ₀ intersection lineation suggest recumbent folding occurred during east‐west to northwest‐southeast shortening. First‐generation folds are refolded by north‐south‐oriented upright non‐cylindrical tight to isoclinal second‐generation folds. A differentiated axial‐planar cleavage to the second‐generation fold is the dominant fabric in the study area. This fabric crenulates an earlier fabric in the hinge zones of second‐generation folds, but forms a composite cleavage on the fold limbs. Two weakly developed steeply dipping crenulation cleavages overprint the dominant composite cleavage at a relatively high angle (>45°). These deformations appear to have had little regional effect. The composite cleavage is also overprinted by a subhorizontal crenulation cleavage inferred to have developed during vertical shortening associated with late‐orogenic pluton emplacement. We interpret the sequence of deformation events in the Hampden Synform to reflect the progression from thin‐skinned crustal shortening during the development of first‐generation structures to thick‐skinned crustal shortening during subsequent events. The Hampden Synform is interpreted to occur within a progressively deformed thrust slice located in the hangingwall of the Overhang Shear.     

Quantification of vertical water fluxes in the vadose zone using particle‐size distribution and pedology‐based approaches to model soil heterogeneities

One‐dimensional flow simulations were conducted at four locations of the shallow alluvial aquifer of the upper Rhine River (at the Erstein polder) to quantify the time‐dependent moisture distribution, the water flux and the water volume infiltrated in the unsaturated zone as a function of soil heterogeneities during a five‐day‐long flooding event. Three methods of estimating the hydraulic parameters of soil in the vadose zone were tested. They are based on the following: (1) experimental data, (2) soil particle‐size distribution and (3) pedology information on soils. Water fluxes calculated from modelling approaches 2 and 3 were compared with those of the experiment‐based values and the effect of these differences on the arrival time and velocity of water at the water table were analysed. Major differences in water fluxes were found among the methods of estimating the hydrodynamic parameters. At the Terrace location, the groundwater recharge predicted using soil data from methods 1 and 2 are approximately 4500 and 2400 mm, respectively. Flow simulations using soil data and the experiment‐based method show the highest velocities of infiltrating water at the soil surface and largest volume of groundwater infiltration but result in the lowest centres of the moisture content mass. The results obtained using soil data based on the pedological method are similar to those calculated using soil parameters based on the particle‐size distribution of extracted soil samples. Water pressure profiles calculated on Terrace and Channel location, 3 and 7 days after the inundation event agreed reasonably well with those observed when using hydrodynamic parameters from the experiment‐based method. However, the flow model using the pedology‐based parameters largely underestimates the time needed to achieve hydrostatic conditions of the soil water profile once water flooding at the soil surface stops. This can be mainly attributed to the low values of estimated van Genuchten parameter α. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding carbon trading: Effects of delegating CO2 responsibility on organizations’ trading behaviour

The establishment of a carbon market assumes that there is an effective means of transforming price information into technical carbon reduction measures. However, empirical evidence reveals that the links between price information and carbon management strategies are far from obvious. To understand how delegating CO₂ responsibility affects CO₂ trading behaviour, this article proposes a neo-institutionalist approach to answering the question of why companies became sellers, buyers or a combination of both during phase I of the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). Original data from a survey on companies that participated in this scheme were collected and analysed. It was assumed that the trading scheme offered two ways to delegate decisions regarding emissions trading: decoupling from technical knowledge and financialization (i.e. delegating to financial departments) or coupling using technicalization (i.e. delegating to manufacturing departments). The results support the hypothesis that a company that adopts a decoupling strategy is more likely to buy certificates to fulfil their emissions targets. Adopting a coupling strategy indicates that a company is more likely to become a seller, all else equal. Professional identity is the theoretical basis for this relationship. Delegating carbon management to different departments represents either a stronger coupling or a stronger decoupling from core technological processes.

Policy relevance

The transaction data from phase I of the EU ETS open new questions and possibilities regarding the reasons that drive selling and buying in companies. It is important to look not only at the traditional sources of transaction costs, but rather also at the reasons for these tensions. One important source is the professional education of the people in charge of the EU ETS. Tailored information that directly addresses the different professional backgrounds of managers working in both financial departments and more technical departments might help to lower these types of transaction costs. In today's context, important emitter countries, such as China and Korea, have launched their own emissions markets, copying many aspects of the EU ETS. For the positive development of these markets and as a way of establishing a global emissions market, these new schemes should learn from the EU ETS experience.     

Geochemical variations in Andean basaltic and silicic lavas from the Villarrica-Lanin volcanic chain (39.5° S): an evaluation of source heterogeneity,fractional crystallization and crustal assimilation

At 39.5° S in the southern volcanic zone of the Andes three Pleistocene-recent stratovolcanoes, Villarrica, Quetrupillan and Lanin, form a trend perpendicular to the strike of the Andes, 275 to 325 km from the Peru-Chile trench. Basalts from Villarrica and Lanin are geochemically distinct; the latter have higher incompatible element abundances and La/Sm but lower Ba/La and alkali metal/La ratios. These differences are consistent with our previously proposed models involving: a) a west to east decrease in an alkali metal-rich, high Ba/La slab-derived component which causes an across strike decrease in degree of melting; or b) a west to east increase in the contamination of subduction-related magma by enriched subcontinental lithospheric mantle. Silicic and mafic lavas from the stratovolcanoes have overlapping Sr, Nd and O isotopic ratios. Silicic lavas also have geochemical differences that parallel those of their associated basalts, e.g., rhyolite from Villarrica has lower La/Sm and incompatible element contents than high-SiO₂ andesite from Lanin. At each volcano the most silicic lavas can be modelled by closed system fractional crystallization while andesites are best explained by magma mixing. Apparently crustal contamination was not an important process in deriving the evolved lavas. Basaltic flows from small scoria cones, 20–35 km from Villarrica volcano have high incompatible element contents and low Ba/La, like Lanin basalts, but trend to higher K/Rb (356–855) and lower ⁸⁷Sr/ ⁸⁶Sr (0.70361–0.70400) than basalts from either stratovolcano. However all basalts have similar Nd, Pb and O isotope ratios. The best explanation for the unique features of the cones is that the sources of SVZ magmas, e.g., slab-derived fluids or melts of the subcontinental lithospheric mantle, have varying alkali metal and radiogenic Sr contents. These heterogeneities are not manifested in stratovolcano basalts because of extensive subcrustal pooling and mixing. This model is preferable to one involving crustal contamination because it can account for variable Sr isotope ratios and uniform Nd and Pb isotope ratios among the basalts, and the divergence of the cones from across-strike geochemical trends defined by the stratovolcanoes.