A review and assessment of tributyltin contamination in the North Sea,based on surveys of butyltin tissue burdens and imposex/intersex in four species of neogastropods

It is evident from measures of butyltin tissue burdens and imposex or intersex in neogastropods that tributyltin (TBT) contamination of coastal waters and open parts of the North Sea is now low. It has been declining for at least the past decade. This is probably due to two measures. First, regulations prohibiting the use of TBT-based paints on small boats and fish farms have reduced inputs of TBT from these sources so that they are now negligible (except possibly where the regulations are flaunted). Second, there is evidence from sites, where commercial vessels are the sole source of TBT, that the adoption of TBT SPC paints has been effective in reducing environmental levels of these contaminants. However, poor dockyard practices, allowing TBT-contaminated wastes, including paint flakes, to accumulate in sediments have left a legacy of hot-spots of contamination in some ports. The impact is localised so that TBT contamination is low in coastal areas immediately adjacent to ports.     

Crystallization of sodium sulfate phases in porous materials: The phase diagram Na2SO4-H2O and the generation of stress

Mechanical disintegration by crystal growth of salts in pores is generally considered as an important mechanism of rock breakdown both on Earth and on Mars. Crystal growth is also a major cause of damage in porous building materials. Sodium sulfate is the most widely used salt in accelerated weathering tests of natural rocks and building materials. This paper provides an updated phase diagram of the Na₂SO₄-H₂O system based on a careful review of the available thermodynamic data of aqueous sodium sulfate and the crystalline phases. The phase diagram includes both the stable phases thenardite, Na₂SO₄(V), and mirabilite, Na₂SO₄·10H₂O, and, the metastable phases Na₂SO₄(III) and Na₂SO₄·7H₂O. The phase diagram is used to discuss the crystallization pathways and the crystallization pressures generated by these solids in common laboratory weathering experiments and under field conditions. New crystallization experiments carried out at different temperatures are presented. A dilatometric technique is used to study the mechanical response of sandstone samples in typical wetting-drying experiments as in the standard salt crystallization test. Additional experiments with continuous immersion and evaporation were carried out with the same type of sandstone. Both, the theoretical treatment and the results of the crystallization experiments confirm that the crystallization of mirabilite from highly supersaturated solutions is the most important cause of damage of sodium sulfate in porous materials.     

A new atmospheric proxy for sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea: observations and future ensemble projections

Atmosphere–ocean interactions are known to dominate seasonal to decadal sea level variability in the southeastern North Sea. In this study an atmospheric proxy for the observed sea level variability in the German Bight is introduced. Monthly mean sea level (MSL) time series from 13 tide gauges located in the German Bight and one virtual station record are evaluated in comparison to sea level pressure fields over the North Atlantic and Europe. A quasi-linear relationship between MSL in the German Bight and sea level pressure over Scandinavia and the Iberian Peninsula is found. This relationship is used (1) to evaluate the atmospheric contribution to MSL variability in hindcast experiments over the period from 1871–2008 with data from the twentieth century reanalysis v2 (20CRv2), (2) to isolate the high frequency meteorological variability of MSL from longer-term changes, (3) to derive ensemble projections of the atmospheric contribution to MSL until 2100 with eight different coupled global atmosphere–ocean models (AOGCM’s) under the A1B emission scenario and (4) two additional projections for one AOGCM (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) under the B1 and A2 emission scenarios. The hindcast produces a reasonable good reconstruction explaining approximately 80 % of the observed MSL variability over the period from 1871 to 2008. Observational features such as the divergent seasonal trend development in the second half of the twentieth century, i.e. larger trends from January to March compared to the rest of the year, and regional variations along the German North Sea coastline in trends and variability are well described. For the period from 1961 to 1990 the Kolmogorov-Smirnow test is used to evaluate the ability of the eight AOGCMs to reproduce the observed statistical properties of MSL variations. All models are able to reproduce the statistical distribution of atmospheric MSL. For the target year 2100 the models point to a slight increase in the atmospheric component of MSL with generally larger changes during winter months (October–March). Largest MSL changes in the order of ~5–6 cm are found for the high emission scenario A2, whereas the moderate B1 and intermediate A1B scenarios lead to moderate changes in the order of ~3 cm. All models point to an increasing atmospheric contribution to MSL in the German Bight, but the uncertainties are considerable, i.e. model and scenario uncertainties are in the same order of magnitude.     

Characteristics of intra-, inter-annual and decadal sea-level variability and the role of meteorological forcing: the long record of Cuxhaven

This paper addresses the role of meteorological forcing on mean sea level (MSL) variability at the tide gauge of Cuxhaven over a period from 1871 to 2008. It is found that seasonal sea level differs significantly from annual means in both variability and trends. The causes for the observed differences are investigated by comparing to changes in wind stress, sea level pressure and precipitation. Stepwise regression is used to estimate the contribution of the different forcing factors to sea level variability. The model validation and sensitivity analyses showed that a robust and timely independent estimation of regression coefficients becomes possible if at least 60 to 80 years of data are available. Depending on the season, the models are able to explain between 54 % (spring, April to June) and 90 % (winter, January to March) of the observed variability. Most parts of the observed variability are attributed to changes in zonal wind stress, whereby the contribution of sea level pressure, precipitation and meridional wind stress is rather small but still significant. On decadal timescales, the explanatory power of local meteorological forcing is considerable weaker, suggesting that the remaining variability is attributed to remote forcing over the North Atlantic. Although meteorological forcing contributes to linear trends in some sub-periods of seasonal time series, the annual long-term trend is less affected. However, the uncertainties of trend estimation can be considerably reduced, when removing the meteorological influences. A standard error smaller than 0.5 mm/year requires 55 years of data when using observed MSL at Cuxhaven tide gauge. In contrast, a similar standard error in the meteorologically corrected residuals is reached after 32 years.     

Damage identification using inverse analysis in coupled thermo‐hydro‐mechanical problems applied to masonry dams

In this paper, we propose a method to detect the damage and estimate the degree of damage by means of a multifield‐based inverse analysis. The fields being considered are displacement, temperature, and water pressure. Furthermore, the uncertainties due to the size of the damage, the errors in the measurement data, and the errors in the model parameters are also investigated. The uncertainty due to the measurements is quantified by assuming different sources of noise in the measurements. The inverse problem is solved repeatedly by a sampling process. The uncertainties in the inverse solutions can be quantified by their probability distributions. This method can be applied to identify damages in masonry dams using coupled nonlinear thermo‐hydro‐mechanical problems.     

How to Include Ignorance into Hydrocarbon-Resource Assessments? A Case Study Applied to the Presence of Source Rock at the Argentine Deep Water Margin

The underexplored deep Argentine continental margin may be a prospective area for hydrocarbon resources. This study quantifies the degree of certainty about a fundamental part in a petroleum system, the presence of source rocks. Probability theory and, in particular, Bayesian networks provide powerful assessment tools based on incomplete knowledge. However, they should not be applied uncritically in cases where necessary assumptions like independence are not fulfilled or prior probabilities are not known. We discuss the difference between a low probability and the ignorance of a hypothesis, and apply an alternative method to the assessment of source rock presence. The results of this probabilistic argumentation system coincide with the intuitive judgement, stating that there is a quantifiable evidence for a source rock, but no evidence against it.     

Interannual variability of dense shelf water salinities in the north-western Barents Sea

The maximum dense shelf water salinity formed during winter in the Svalbard Bank area of the north-western Barents Sea is reconstructed for the period 1952–2000 by analysing the transformation of summer remnants. The variability of 34.7 - 35.4, waters being at the freezing point, is mainly generated by interannual variations in the near surface salinity. On interannual time scales the latter is strongly linked to the sea ice import. In contrast, no correlation of the salinity of the Atlantic Water (AW) throughflow to the Arctic Ocean with the ice import is found. Salinities of both the dense shelf water site in the north-west Barents Sea and the north-eastward AW throughflow show a long term decrease, which can partly be explained by a less saline inflow of AW from the Norwegian Sea. The unusually low dense water salinities in the north-west Barents Sea during the 1990s appear to have a different origin, consistent with a response to oceanic heat advection and decreasing sea ice extent.     

Allan Hills 77081—an unusual stony meteorite

Allan Hills (ALHA) 77081 is achondritic in texture while the mineral composition and the chemistry are chondritic with the exception of a few elements. An assignment to one specific group of ordinary chondrites is therefore difficult. In many respects this meteorite is similar to the unusual stone meteorite Acapulco. The REE pattern of ALHA 77081 is essentially flat and the distribution ratios of siderophile elements between metal and silicates are high compared to ordinary chondrites.Gas retention ages are 3.5±0.5 AE for U, Th-He and 4.50±0.15 AE for K-Ar. In spite of the high degree of recrystallisation the meteorite contains trapped noble gases in amounts comparable to type 4 chondrites.Cosmic ray tracks and spallogenic noble gases indicate a small preatmospheric radius of about 2–3 cm. Spallogenic nuclides produced by solar cosmic rays or stopped solar flare ions may be present.     

Mineralogy,petrology, and trace element geochemistry of the Johnstown meteorite: a brecciated orthopyroxenite with siderophile and REE-rich components

The Johnstown meteorite is a brecciated orthopyroxenite (diogenite) containing coarsegrained centimeter-sized clasts of cumulate origin that have undergone subsolidus recrystallization. The brecciated portion is dominated by subangular fragments of orthopyroxene (Wo_2–3En_72–74Fs_23–25) in a variably comminuted matrix of the same material. Minor and accessory phases include plagioclase (An_82–90Ab_10–18Or_0–1), diopside (Wo_44–45En_46–47Fs_9–10), olivine (Fo_71–72), tridymite, troilite, metallic Ni-Fe (~3% Ni), and chromite (Cm_71–80Hc_1–8Sp_11–19Mt_2–4Uv_1–3).The clastic component is parental to the brecciated matrix which contains no foreign lithic or mineralogic components. Siderophile trace element studies, however, reveal the presence of meteoritic (chondritic) contamination in the brecciated portion using unbrecciated clasts for indigenous values. Rare earth element abundances show a wide range of values for the light REE in different samples, although all samples exhibit a strong negative Eu anomaly, indicative of earlier plagioclase fractionation. Two pairs of adjacent brecciated and unbrecciated samples from different portions of the meteorite show, respectively, the most enriched and the most depleted light REE patterns. The variability in La content is over a factor of 100. However, in each case the REE pattern for the brecciated portion is very similar to that of the unbrecciated portion. These differences are attributed to sampling of variable amounts of residual, REE-enriched, trapped liquid. The most representative REE pattern for the bulk meteorite has an intermediate composition and was obtained from the largest sample. The data presented here indicate that Johnstown is a monomict breccia, in contrast to several other diogenites which may be considered to be polymict on the basis of their mineral compositions and/or clast populations.     

Experiences with an expert system for gold exploration in Botswana

This article describes initial experiences with an expert system in the scope of an exploration project in Botswana. A simple and easy-to-use expert system shell for personal computers was applied to construct an inference network for epigenetic gold deposits. The main objective, however, was not the automation of human intelligence but the structural analysis of domain knowledge for a target assessment. Aspects of human reasoning are discussed and compared with machine reasoning. Some actual problems concerning the inversion of rules under uncertainty, contrary evidences, and prior probabilities are discussed. Technical aspects like costs and schedule are included in the exploration model. Three different approaches for constructing an inference network are described.