New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

Daily Air Temperature and Pressure Series for Stockholm (1756–1998)

Daily meteorological observations have been made at the old astronomical observatory in Stockholm since 1754. Complete daily mean series of air temperature and sea level pressure are reconstructed from the observational data for 1756–1998. The temperature and pressure series arereconstructed and homogenized with the aid of metadata, statistical tests and comparisons with data from other stations. Comparisons with independently reconstructed daily series for nearby Uppsala (1722–1998) show that the quality of thedaily Stockholm data is good, although the reliability is lower before the mid-19th century. The daily temperature data show that the colder winter mean temperatures of the late 18th to early 19th centuries were connected with a particularly high frequency of very cold winter days. The warmer summers of the same period are more connected with a general shift of the temperature distribution towards higher temperatures than in the late 20th century.     

Ludlow (Silurian) stromatoporoid biostromes from Gotland, Sweden: facies, depositional models and modern analogues

Stacked stromatoporoid‐dominated biostromes of the Ludlow‐age Hemse Group (Silurian) in eastern Gotland, Sweden, are 0·5–5 m thick and a few tens of metres to >1 km in lateral extent. They form one of the world's richest Palaeozoic stromatoporoid deposits. This study compiles published and new data to provide an overall facies model for these biostromes, which is assessed in relation to possible modern analogues. Some biostromes have predominantly in‐place fossils and are regarded as reefs, but lack rigid frameworks because of abundant low‐profile non‐framebuilding stromatoporoids; other biostromes consist of stromatoporoid‐rich rudstones interpreted here as storm deposits. Variation between these two `end‐members' occurs both between interlayered biostromes and also vertically and laterally within individual biostromes. Such variation produces problems of applying established reef classification terms and demonstrates the need for the development of terminology that recognizes taphonomic destruction of reef fabrics. An approach to such terminology is found in all four categories of a recent biostrome classification scheme that are easily recognized in the Hemse biostrome facies: autobiostromes (>60% in place); autoparabiostromes (a mixture of in‐place and overturned reef‐building organisms, 20–60% in place); parabiostromes (builders are overturned and damaged, <20% in place); and allobiostromes (transported and detrital reef material, nothing in place). These categories provide a broad taphofacies scheme for the Hemse biostromes, which are mostly autoparabiostrome to allobiostrome. The biostromes developed on crinoidal grainstone sheets and expanded laterally across relatively flat substrates in a marine setting of low siliciclastic input. Planar erosion surfaces commonly terminate biostrome tops. Three broadly similar modern analogues are identified, each of which has elements in common with the Hemse biostromes, but none of which is an exact equivalent: (a) laterally expanded and coalesced back‐barrier patch reefs behind the Belize barrier, an area influenced by limited accommodation space; (b) a hurricane‐influenced shelf, interpreted for Grand Cayman, where reef cores consist of rubble and lack substantial framework; the wide distribution of rounded pebbles and cobbles of stromatoporoids in the Hemse biostromes most probably resulted from hurricanes; (c) coral carpets in 5–15 m water depth of the northern Red Sea, where lateral expansion of low‐diversity frames dominated by Porites coral has produced low‐profile biostromes up to 8 m thick and several km long. Such carpets accumulated large amounts of carbonate, with little export, as in the Hemse biostromes, although the latter did not build frameworks because of the nature of growth of the stromatoporoids. The notable lack of algae in the Hemse biostrome facies is also a feature of Red Sea coral carpets; nevertheless, coral carpets are ecologically different. Hemse biostromes lack evidence of a barrier reef system, although this may not be exposed; the facies assemblage is consistent with either a storm/hurricane‐influenced mid‐ to upper ramp or back‐barrier system.     

An Mw based earthquake Catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe using a hierarchy of magnitude conversions

Data from 25 local catalogues and 30special studies of earthquakes in central,northern and northwestern Europe have beenincorporated into a Databank. The dataprocessing includes discriminating eventtypes, eliminating fake events and dupletsand converting different magnitudes andintensities to M_w if this is not givenby the original source. The magnitudeconversion is a key task of the study andimplies establishment of regressionequations where no local relations exist.The Catalogue contains tectonic events fromthe Databank within the area44&amp;deg;N&amp;#x2013;72&amp;deg;N,25&amp;deg;W&amp;#x2013;32&amp;deg;E and the time period1300&amp;#x2013;1993. The lower magnitude level forthe Catalogue entries is setat M_w == 3.50. The area covered by thedifferent catalogues are associated withpolygons. Within each polygon only datafrom one or a small number of the localcatalogues, supplemented by data fromspecial studies, enter the Catalogue. Ifthere are two or more such catalogues orstudies providing a solution for an event,a priority algorithm selects one entry forthe Catalogue. Then M_w is calculatedfrom one of the magnitude types, or frommacroseismic data, given by the selectedentry according to another priority scheme.The origin time, location, M_w magnitude and reference are specified for eachentry of the Catalogue. So is theepicentral intensity, I₀, if providedby the original source. Following thesecriteria, a total of about 5,000earthquakes constitute the Catalogue.Although originally derived for the purposeof seismic hazard calculation within GSHAP,the Catalogue provides a data base for manytypes of seismicity and seismic hazardstudies.     

Initiation of the last glaciation in northern europe

The bio- and chronostratigraphy of the Eemian interglacial (marine isotope substage 5e) and an Early Weichselian glaciation (5d-a) established from representative and detailed sequences can be correlated with the deep-sea oxygen isotope stratigraphy, ice-core data, sea-level fluctuations and coupled ice sheet-climate models. Biostratigraphic sequences from Fennoscandian key sections are correlated with reference sequences from Estonia and from sections located near or beyond the margins of the last glaciation. Organic sediments previously attributed to Early and Middle Weichselian interstadial periods in Finland are argued to be redeposited and mixed older (last interglacial) material. Pollen and diatom spectra of the undisturbed materials suggest that the Eemian climatic optimum was followed by a continuously cooling climate and a regressive marine level. If only undisturbed sequences are considered, the major climatic fluctuations of the Early Weichselian, apparent in Central and Western Europe, are not apparent in the sequences from the central part of the glaciated terrain. Instead, some sequences are truncated by sediments indicating approaching ice sheets soon after the interglacial. This may imply that the ice sheet grew over Finland during the first Early Weichselian stadial. The preservation of the interglacial beds and the lack of younger non-glacial sediments support the interpretation that the area remained ice-covered until the final deglaciation. During the Early Weichselian, the Norwegian coast was probably occasionally ice free, similar to the coastal zone of Greenland today. The authors' interpretation of the Fennoscandian organic deposits of the last glaciation may also explain similar observations from the central parts of the Laurentide ice sheet.     

Saprolite Remnants as Indicators of Pre-Glacial Landform Genesis in Southeast Sweden

Twenty‐six sites with remnants of gravelly saprolites (grus) have been located in southeast Sweden. Joint block hills (castle kopjes) and steep rock walls with weathered joints as well as rounded boulders are documented to have an origin in deep weathering and subsequent stripping of saprolites. The saprolite remnants and landforms result from the fragmentation of the re‐exposed sub‐Cambrian peneplain along fracture systems. Only shallow saprolites occur on the elevated intact parts of the sub‐Cambrian peneplain, while saprolites up to 20 m thick are encountered in areas where the sub‐Cambrian peneplain is fractured and dissected. Neogene uplift with reactivation of the weathering system is thought to be the main cause of saprolite formation. Deep weathering is thus judged to have been the major agent of landform formation in the study area, while glacial and glaciofluvial erosion has contributed mainly by stripping saprolites, detaching corestones, and plucking joint blocks along weathered joints.     

Magmatic zircon oxygen isotopes of 1.88–1.87 Ga orogenic and 1.65–1.54 Ga anorogenic magmatism in Finland

Summary Oxygen isotope ratios of igneous zircon from magmatic rocks in Finland provide insights into the evolution and growth of the Precambrian crust during the Svecofennian orogeny. These data preserve magmatic &amp;#948;¹⁸O values and correlate with major discontinuities in the lower crust. Oxygen isotope ratios of zircon across the 1.88&amp;#8211;1.87&amp;#8201;Ga Central Finland granitoid complex (CFGC) range from 5.50&amp;#8240; to 6.84&amp;#8240;, except for three plutons in contact with the adjacent greenstone and metasedimentary belts (&amp;#948;¹⁸O(Zrc) = 7.60&amp;#8240;&amp;#8211;7.78&amp;#8240;). There is a systematic variation in &amp;#948;¹⁸O(Zrc) with respect to geographic location in the CFGC, ranging from 6.60±0.23&amp;#8240; (&amp;#963;) in the northeast to 5.90±0.40&amp;#8240; in the west-southwest. These values correlate with a change in crustal thickness and shift in geochemical composition. The oxygen isotope composition of the 1.65&amp;#8211;1.54&amp;#8201;Ga rapakivi granites and related rocks in southern Finland show a decreasing trend from north to south, independent of their emplacement age. The southern anorogenic granite group has an average &amp;#948;¹⁸O in zircon of 6.14±0.07&amp;#8240; and the northern anorogenic group has an average &amp;#948;¹⁸O in zircon of 8.14±0.59&amp;#8240;. This difference reflects the boundary between island arc terrains accreted during the Paleoproterozoic. Deceased     

Acid leaching of ash and coal: Time dependence and trace element occurrences

The leaching of coal and coal/asphaltite/wood-ashes in sulfuric acid (pH 1.0, 25 &amp;deg;C, S/L, 1:10) was studied as a function of time; acid consumption and extracted metal concentrations are presented. Whole coals consumed acid rapidly during the first few minutes, followed by slow acid consumption. Wood-, lignite-, and asphaltite-ashes consumed acid in two stages, the rapid phase extending &amp;lt;&amp;#xA0;30 min and the slow phase extended up to 10 days. The rapid phase was dominated by the dissolution of Ca, K and Mg ions for wood-ash, by Ca, Al and Mg ions for lignite-ash and Ca and Mg ions for asphaltite-ash. The sulfur concentration in solution and the concentrations of Ca, Fe, K, Mg, Na, P, Al and Mn in the aqueous phase verified the neutralizing capacity of the untreated ashes as well as the formation of insoluble sulfates in the residues. The slow phase kinetics differed for different fuels and exhibited leaching of several abundant elements&amp;mdash;Fe, Al, K, Na and Mn. Trace elements (Ba, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Mo, Ni, Pb, Th, U, V, Zn) sometimes required up to 32 h for maximal extraction from ashes. Suggestions are presented regarding the chemical nature of trace elements in the untreated coals and ashes and suitable residence times for economical industrial processes. We think it possible to combine bacteriological oxidation of sulfidic concentrates of acid leaching from ash of various qualities or even whole coals.     

Present-day and future precipitation in the Baltic Sea region as simulated in a suite of regional climate models

Here we investigate simulated changes in the precipitation climate over the Baltic Sea and surrounding land areas for the period 2071–2100 as compared to 1961–1990. We analyze precipitation in 10 regional climate models taking part in the European PRUDENCE project. Forced by the same global driving climate model, the mean of the regional climate model simulations captures the observed climatological precipitation over the Baltic Sea runoff land area to within 15% in each month, while single regional models have errors up to 25%. In the future climate, the precipitation is projected to increase in the Baltic Sea area, especially during winter. During summer increased precipitation in the north is contrasted with a decrease in the south of this region. Over the Baltic Sea itself the future change in the seasonal cycle of precipitation is markedly different in the regional climate model simulations. We show that the sea surface temperatures have a profound impact on the simulated hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea. The driving global climate model used in the common experiment projects a very strong regional increase in summertime sea surface temperature, leading to a significant increase in precipitation. In addition to the common experiment some regional models have been forced by either a different set of Baltic Sea surface temperatures, lateral boundary conditions from another global climate model, a different emission scenario, or different initial conditions. We make use of the large number of experiments in the PRUDENCE project, providing an ensemble consisting of more than 25 realizations of climate change, to illustrate sources of uncertainties in climate change projections.