Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework

The Budyko framework characterizes landscape water cycles as a function of climate. We used this framework to identify regions with contrasting hydroclimatic change during the past 50 years in Sweden. This analysis revealed three distinct regions: the mountains, the forests, and the areas with agriculture. Each region responded markedly different to recent climate and anthropogenic changes, and within each region, we identified the most sensitive subregions. These results highlight the need for regional differentiation in climate change adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable ecosystems and freshwater resources. Further, the Budyko curve moved systematically towards its water and energy limits, indicating augmentation of the water cycle driven by changing vegetation, climate and human interactions. This finding challenges the steady state assumption of the Budyko curve and therefore its ability to predict future water cycles. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New data on mammoth fauna mammals in the central Lena River basin (Yakutia,Lenskie Stolby National Nature Park and adjacent areas)

This paper considers the data on new findings of mammoth fauna remains in the Middle Lena basin used to specify the species composition of large Late Neopleistocene mammals represented by eleven species. The obtained range of radiocarbon dates made it possible to state that mass burials of Pleistocene mammal remains were formed in the region during the Karginsk Interstadial (24 000–55 000 years ago).     

Double trouble: subsidence and CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> respiration due to 1,000 years of Dutch coastal peatlands cultivation

Coastal plains are amongst the most densely populated areas in the world. Many coastal peatlands are drained to create arable land. This is not without consequences; physical compaction of peat and its degradation by oxidation lead to subsidence, and oxidation also leads to emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂). This study complements existing studies by quantifying total land subsidence and associated CO₂ respiration over the past millennium in the Dutch coastal peatlands, to gain insight into the consequences of cultivating coastal peatlands over longer timescales. Results show that the peat volume loss was 19.8 km³, which lowered the Dutch coastal plain by 1.9 m on average, bringing most of it below sea level. At least 66 % of the volume reduction is the result of drainage, and 34 % was caused by the excavation and subsequent combustion of peat. The associated CO₂ respiration is equivalent to a global atmospheric CO₂ concentration increase of ~0.39 ppmv. Cultivation of coastal peatlands can turn a carbon sink into a carbon source. If the path taken by the Dutch would be followed worldwide, there will be double trouble: globally significant carbon emissions and increased flood risk in a globally important human habitat. The effects would be larger than the historic ones because most of the cumulative Dutch subsidence and peat loss was accomplished with much less efficient techniques than those available now.     

Why GPS makes distances bigger than they are

Global navigation satellite systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS) is one of the most important sensors for movement analysis. GPS is widely used to record the trajectories of vehicles, animals and human beings. However, all GPS movement data are affected by both measurement and interpolation errors. In this article we show that measurement error causes a systematic bias in distances recorded with a GPS; the distance between two points recorded with a GPS is – on average – bigger than the true distance between these points. This systematic ‘overestimation of distance’ becomes relevant if the influence of interpolation error can be neglected, which in practice is the case for movement sampled at high frequencies. We provide a mathematical explanation of this phenomenon and illustrate that it functionally depends on the autocorrelation of GPS measurement error (C). We argue that C can be interpreted as a quality measure for movement data recorded with a GPS. If there is a strong autocorrelation between any two consecutive position estimates, they have very similar error. This error cancels out when average speed, distance or direction is calculated along the trajectory. Based on our theoretical findings we introduce a novel approach to determine C in real-world GPS movement data sampled at high frequencies. We apply our approach to pedestrian trajectories and car trajectories. We found that the measurement error in the data was strongly spatially and temporally autocorrelated and give a quality estimate of the data. Most importantly, our findings are not limited to GPS alone. The systematic bias and its implications are bound to occur in any movement data collected with absolute positioning if interpolation error can be neglected.     

The sedimentary and tectonic evolution of the Amur River and North Sakhalin Basin: new evidence from seismic stratigraphy and Neogene–Recent sediment budgets

The North Sakhalin Basin in the western Sea of Okhotsk has been the main site of sedimentation from the Amur River since the Early Miocene. In this article, we present regional seismic reflection data and a Neogene–Recent sediment budget to constrain the evolution of the basin and its sedimentary fill, and consider the implications for sediment flux from the Amur River, in particular testing models of continental‐scale Neogene drainage capture. The Amur‐derived basin‐fill history can be divided into five distinct stages: the first Amur‐derived sediments (>21–16.5 Ma) were deposited during a period of transtension along the Sakhalin‐Hokkaido Shear Zone, with moderately high sediment flux to the basin (71 Mt year^?1). The second stage sequence (16.5–10.4 Ma) was deposited following the cessation of transtension, and was characterised by a significant reduction in sediment flux (24 Mt year^?1) and widespread retrogradation of deltaic sediments. The third (10.4–5.3 Ma) and fourth (5.3–2.5 Ma) stages were characterised by progradation of deltaic sediments and an associated increase in sediment flux (48–60 Mt year^?1) to the basin. Significant uplift associated with regional transpression started during this time in southeastern Sakhalin, but the north‐eastward propagating strain did not reach the NE shelf of Sakhalin until the Pleistocene (<2.5 Ma). This uplift event, still ongoing today, resulted in recycling of older deltaic sediments from the island of Sakhalin, and contributed to a substantially increased total sediment flux to the adjacent basinal areas (165 Mt year^?1). Adjusted rates to discount these local erosional products (117 Mt year^?1) imply an Amur catchment‐wide increase in denudation rates during the Late Pliocene–Pleistocene; however, this was likely a result of global climatic and eustatic effects, combined with tectonic processes within the Amur catchment and possibly a smaller drainage capture event by the Sungari tributary, rather than continental‐scale drainage capture involving the entire upper Amur catchment.     

Phylogeography of the pelagic fish Seriola lalandi at different scales: confirmation of inter-ocean population structure and evaluation of southern African genetic diversity

The study investigated the global and regional phylogeography of the yellowtail kingfish Seriola lalandi by examining genetic diversity and population genetic structure of this species at inter-and intra-ocean level and on a regional scale. DNA fragments of two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome b (Cytb) and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) and one nuclear gene, recombination activating gene 1 (RAG1), were sequenced to investigate the global-scale phylogeography of this species. The population genetic structure within the South Pacific, as well as along the South African coastline, was examined further using six microsatellite markers. Three distinct clades were identified for S. lalandi, which correspond with previously described subspecies of the North-East Pacific, North-West Pacific and the Southern Hemisphere. Within the latter, additional divergence was observed between the South Pacific and the South-East Atlantic regions. Divergence estimates were indicative of a Pacific origin for S. lalandi populations, because of Pleistocene vicariant events. Microsatellite analyses revealed overall significant genetic differentiation between South African and South Pacific samples. This corroborates recent findings on the global phylogeography of the species. No population differentiation was observed within South Africa, indicating high levels of gene flow.     

An experimental study of Fe–Ni exchange between sulfide melt and olivine at upper mantle conditions: implications for mantle sulfide compositions and phase equilibria

The behavior of nickel in the Earth’s mantle is controlled by sulfide melt–olivine reaction. Prior to this study, experiments were carried out at low pressures with narrow range of Ni/Fe in sulfide melt. As the mantle becomes more reduced with depth, experiments at comparable conditions provide an assessment of the effect of pressure at low-oxygen fugacity conditions. In this study, we constrain the Fe–Ni composition of molten sulfide in the Earth’s upper mantle via sulfide melt–olivine reaction experiments at 2 GPa, 1200 and 1400 °C, with sulfide melt \(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{Sulfide}}}}=\frac{{{\text{Ni}}}}{{{\text{Ni}}+{\text{Fe}}}}\) (atomic ratio) ranging from 0 to 0.94. To verify the approach to equilibrium and to explore the effect of \({f_{{{\text{O}}_{\text{2}}}}}\) on Fe–Ni exchange between phases, four different suites of experiments were conducted, varying in their experimental geometry and initial composition. Effects of Ni secondary fluorescence on olivine analyses were corrected using the PENELOPE algorithm (Baró et al., Nucl Instrum Methods Phys Res B 100:31–46, 1995), “zero time” experiments, and measurements before and after dissolution of surrounding sulfides. Oxygen fugacities in the experiments, estimated from the measured O contents of sulfide melts and from the compositions of coexisting olivines, were 3.0?±?1.0 log units more reduced than the fayalite–magnetite-quartz (FMQ) buffer (suite 1, 2 and 3), and FMQ ??1 or more oxidized (suite 4). For the reduced (suites 1–3) experiments, Fe–Ni distribution coefficients \(K_{{\text{D}}}^{{}}=\frac{{(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{sulfide}}}}/X_{{{\text{Fe}}}}^{{{\text{sulfide}}}})}}{{(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{olivine}}}}/X_{{{\text{Fe}}}}^{{{\text{olivine}}}})}}\) are small, averaging 10.0?±?5.7, with little variation as a function of total Ni content. More oxidized experiments (suite 4) give larger values of K_D (21.1–25.2). Compared to previous determinations at 100 kPa, values of K_D from this study are chiefly lower, in large part owing to the more reduced conditions of the experiments. The observed difference does not seem attributable to differences in temperature and pressure between experimental studies. It may be related in part to the effects of metal/sulfur ratio in sulfide melt. Application of these results to the composition of molten sulfide in peridotite indicates that compositions are intermediate in composition (\(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{sulfide}}}}\)?~?0.4–0.6) in the shallow mantle at 50 km, becomes more Ni rich with depth as the O content of the melt diminishes, reaching a maximum (0.6–0.7) at depths near 80–120 km, and then becomes more Fe rich in the deeper mantle where conditions are more reduced, approaching (\(X_{{{\text{Ni}}}}^{{{\text{sulfide}}}}\)?~?0.28)?>?140 km depth. Because Ni-rich sulfide in the shallow upper mantle melts at lower temperature than more Fe-rich compositions, mantle sulfide is likely molten in much of the deep continental lithosphere, including regions of diamond formation.     

The AquaDEB project (phase I): Analysing the physiological flexibility of aquatic species and connecting physiological diversity to ecological and evolutionary processes by using Dynamic Energy Budgets

The European Research Project AquaDEB (2007–2011, http://www.ifremer.fr/aquadeb/) is joining skills and expertise of some French and Dutch research institutes and universities to analyse the physiological flexibility of aquatic organisms and to link it to ecological and evolutionary processes within a common theoretical framework for quantitative bioenergetics [Kooijman, S.A.L.M., 2000. Dynamic energy and mass budgets in biological systems. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge]. The main scientific objectives in AquaDEB are i) to study and compare the sensitivity of aquatic species (mainly molluscs and fish) to environmental variability of natural or human origin, and ii) to evaluate the related consequences at different biological levels (individual, population, ecosystem) and temporal scales (life cycle, population dynamics, evolution). At mid-term life, the AquaDEB collaboration has already yielded interesting results by quantifying bio-energetic processes of various aquatic species (e.g. molluscs, fish, crustaceans, algae) with a single mathematical framework. It has also allowed to federate scientists with different backgrounds, e.g. mathematics, microbiology, ecology, chemistry, and working in different fields, e.g. aquaculture, fisheries, ecology, agronomy, ecotoxicology, climate change. For the two coming years, the focus of the AquaDEB collaboration will be in priority: (i) to compare energetic and physiological strategies among species through the DEB parameter values and to identify the factors responsible for any differences in bioenergetics and physiology; and to compare dynamic (DEB) versus static (SEB) energy models to study the physiological performance of aquatic species; (ii) to consider different scenarios of environmental disruption (excess of nutrients, diffuse or massive pollution, exploitation by man, climate change) to forecast effects on growth, reproduction and survival of key species; (iii) to scale up the models for a few species from the individual level up to the level of evolutionary processes.