Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Activity-composition relations in FeTiO3-MnTiO3 ilmenite solid solutions from EMF measurements at 1050–1300 K

The activity of FeTiO₃ in the binary ilmenitepyrophanite (FeTiO₃-MnTiO₃) solid solution has been determined for the temperature range 1050–1300 K by displacement of the reaction: 2 FeTiO₃=2 Fe+2 TiO₂+O₂ in T-O₂ space, using an electrochemical technique with calcia- and yttria-stabilized zirconia solid electrolytes. The activities show small positive deviations from ideality, which, although the data are unusually precise, may be perfectly described by the simple regular solution model, with an interaction parameter, W _Fe-Mn ^ilm , of 2.2±0.3 kJ g-atom^–1, which is independent of temperature. This value, together with the experimental data on the partitioning of Fe and Mn between ilmenite and garnet (Pownceby et al. 1987), gives W _Fe-Mn ^gt =1.2±0.5 kJ g-atom^–1 for the almandine-spessartine (Fe₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂-Mn₃Al₂Si₃O₁₂) solid solution.     

Modelling Positional Uncertainty of Line Features by Accounting for Stochastic Deviations from Straight Line Segments

The assessment of positional uncertainty in line and area features is often based on uncertainty in the coordinates of their elementary vertices which are assumed to be connected by straight lines. Such an approach disregards uncertainty caused by sampling and approximation of a curvilinear feature by a sequence of straight line segments. In this article, a method is proposed that also allows for the latter type of uncertainty by modelling random rectangular deviations from the conventional straight line segments. Using the model on a dense network of sub‐vertices, the contribution of uncertainty due to approximation is emphasised; the sampling effect can be assessed by applying it on a small set of randomly inserted sub‐vertices. A case study demonstrates a feasible way of parameterisation based on assumptions of joint normal distributions for positional errors of the vertices and the rectangular deviations and a uniform distribution of missed sub‐vertices along line segments. Depending on the magnitudes of the different sources of uncertainty, not accounting for potential deviations from straight line segments may drastically underestimate the positional uncertainty of line features.     

TAOS – The Taiwanese‐American Occultation Survey

The Taiwanese‐American Occultation Survey (TAOS) seeks to determine the number and size spectrum for small (∼3 km) bodies in the Kuiper Belt. This will be accomplished by searching for the brief occultations of bright stars (R ∼ 14) by these objects. We have designed and built a special purpose photometric monitoring system for this purpose. TAOS comprises four 50 cm telescopes, each equipped with a 2048 × 2048 pixel CCD camera, in a compact array located in the central highlands of Taiwan. TAOS will monitor up to 2 000 stars at 5 Hz. The system went into scientific operation in the autumn of 2005. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)