Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming

 A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the degree-day method and the energy-balance method. The lithosphere is considered to respond isostatically to a point load and the time evolution of the bedrock follows from a viscous asthenosphere. According to the IPCC-IS92a scenario (with constant aerosols after 1990) the Greenland ice-sheet is likely to cause a global sea level rise of 10.4 cm by 2100 AD. It is shown, however, that the result is sensitive to precise model formulations and that simplifications as used in the sea-level projection in the IPCC-96 report yield less accurate results. Our model results indicate that, on a time scale of a hundred years, including the dynamic response of the ice-sheet yields more mass loss than the fixed response in which changes in geometry are not incorporated. It appears to be important to consider sliding, as well as the fact that climate sensitivity increases for larger perturbations. Variations in predicted sea-level change on a time scale of hundred years depend mostly on the initial state of the ice-sheet. On a time scale of a few hundred years, however, the variability in the predicted melt is dominated by the variability in the climate scenarios. Received: 21 August 1996/Accepted: 12 May 1997     

Prediction in hydrogeology: two case histories

An inherent aspect of hydrogeology is the dynamic character of groundwater flow within the more passive lithospheric medium. Prediction therefore requires insight into the spatial pattern of aquifer properties as well as the dynamic character of groundwater flow systems. Both aspects together determine hydrogeological system behaviour in space and time. The spatial characteristics of an aquifer are mainly based on geological and geomorphological structure, whereas the dynamics of the system result predominantly from climate and topography; knowledge of paleoconditions are a prerequisite for sound understanding of present systems. The integration of exploration and forecast is illustrated by two case studies. The first study focuses on an assessment of groundwater resource and their sustainable development in semi-arid Botswana. The second study concerns the impact of land and water management in the Netherlands coastal area on the groundwater regime and its future development, including the redistribution of salt and fresh groundwater on a long time scale.     

Neuralizing target superresolution algorithms

Tatem et al. (2001) have designed a Hopfield network-based algorithm for superresolving discrete targets that are larger than the sample spacing of an image. The algorithm iteratively minimizes a criterion function that contains a sigmoidal activation term. We have altered their algorithm to bring it in line with Hopfield's original network by reducing the pseudotemperature of the sigmoid. We found that smaller values of the pseudotemperature lead to faster convergence to a solution and resulting solutions that are more accurate.     

Vegetation dynamics during the late Pleistocene in the Barreirinhas region, Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil, based on carbon isotopes in soil organic matter

The study place is in the Barreirinhas region, Maranhão State, northeastern Brazil. A vegetation transect of 78 km was studied among four vegetation types: Restinga (coastal vegetation), Cerrado (woody savanna), Cerradão (dense woody savanna), and Forest, as well as three forested sites around Lagoa do Caçó, located approximately 10 km of the transect. Soil profiles in this transect were sampled for δ¹³C analysis, as well as buried charcoal fragments were used for ¹⁴C dating. The data interpretation indicated that approximately between 15,000 and ∼9000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., arboreal vegetation prevailed in the whole transect, probably due to the presence of a humid climate. Approximately between ∼9000 and 4000-3000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., there was the expansion of the savanna, probably related to the presence of drier climate. From ∼4000-3000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. to the present, the results indicated an increase in the arboreal density in the area, due to the return to a more humid and probably similar climate to the present. The presence of buried charcoal fragments in several soil depths suggested the occurrence of palaeofires during the Holocene. The vegetation dynamic inferred in this study for northeastern Brazil is in agreement with the results obtained in areas of Amazon region, based on pollen analysis of lake sediments and carbon isotope analysis of soil organic matter (SOM), implying than similar climatic conditions have affected these areas during the late Pleistocene until the present.     

Submillimeter-wave and observations of the event on 28 November, 2001

We present a detailed study of a 1B/M6.9 impulsive flare combining high time resolution (1 ms) and instantaneous emission source localization observations at submillimeter frequencies (212 GHz), obtained with the solar submillimeter telescope (SST), and Hα data from the Hα solar telescope for argentina (HASTA). The flare, starting at 16:34 UT, occurred in active region (AR) 9715 (NOAA number) on November 28, 2001, and was followed by an Hα surge. We complement our data with magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler Imager (SOHO/MDI). SST observed a short impulsive burst at 212 GHz, presenting a weak bulk emission (of about 90 sfu) composed of a few shorter duration structures. The integrated Hα and the 212 GHz light curves present a remarkable agreement during the impulsive phase of the event. The delay between both curves stays below 12 s (the time resolution of the Hα telescope). The flare as well as the surge are linked to new flux emergence very close to the main AR bipole. Taking into account the AR magnetic field evolution, we infer that magnetic field reconnection, occurring at low coronal levels, could have been at the origin of the flare; while in the case of surge this would happen at the chromospheric level.     

Structural and tectonothermal evolution of the ultrahigh-temperature Bakhuis Granulite Belt,Guiana Shield,Surinam:Palaeoproterozoic to recent

We constrain the multistage tectonic evolution of the Palaeoproterozoic UHT metamorphic(P=0.9–1.0 GPa,T>1000℃,t=2088–2031 Ma)Bakhuis Granulite Belt(BGB)in Surinam on the Guiana Shield,using large-to small-scale structures,Al-in-hornblende thermobarometry and published fluid inclusion and zircon geochronological data.The BGB forms a narrow,NE–SW striking belt between two formerly connected,~E–W oriented granite-greenstone belts,formed between converging Amazonian and West African continental masses prior to collision and Transamazonian orogeny.Inherited detrital zircon in BGB metasediments conforms agewise to Birimian zircon of West Africa and suggests derivation from the subsequently subducted African passive margin.Ultrahigh-temperature metamorphism may have followed slab break-off and asthenospheric heat advection.Peak metamorphic structures result from layer-parallel shearing and folding,reflecting initial transtensional exhumation of the subducted African margin after slab break-off.A second HT event involves intrusion,at ca.0.49 GPa,of charnockites and metagabbros at 1993–1984 Ma and a layered anorthosite at 1980 Ma,after the BGB had already cooled to<400℃.The event is related to northward subduction under the greenstone belts,along a new active margin to their south.A pronounced syntaxial bend in the new margin points northward towards the BGB and is likely the result of indentation by an anticlinorial flexural bulge of the subducting plate.Tearing of the subducting oceanic plate along this bulge explains why the charnockites are restricted to the BGB.The BGB subsequently experienced doming under an extensional detachment exposed in its southwestern border zone.Exhumation was focused in the BGB as a result of the flexural bulge in the subducting plate and localised heating of the overriding plate by charnockite magmatism.The present,straight NE–SW long-side boundaries of the BGB are superimposed mylonite zones,overprinted by pseudotachylites,previously dated at ca.1200 Ma and 950 Ma,respectively.The 1200 Ma mylonites reflect transpressional popping-up of the BGB,caused by EW-directed intraplate principal compressive stresses from Grenvillian collision preserved under the eastern Andes.Further exhumation of the BGB involved the 950 Ma pseudotachylite decorated faulting,and Phanerozoic faulting along reactivated Meso-and Neoproterozoic lineaments.     

Fluid inclusion studies of the Abawso gold prospect,near the Ashanti Belt,Ghana

The major Ghanaian lode gold deposits are preferentially aligned along the western and eastern contacts of the Kumasi Basin with the Ashanti and Sefwi Belts, respectively. The investigated area of the Abawso small-scale concession, covering the workings of the old Ettadom mine, is situated 3 km west of the lithological contact of the Birimian metavolcanic rocks of the Akropong Belt in the east with the Birimian metasedimentary rocks of the Kumasi Basin in the west. The rocks of the Abawso concession represent a steeply NW-dipping limb of a SE-verging anticline with an axis plunging to the SW. Quartz veining occurs predominantly in the form of en échelon dilatational veins along NNE–SSW-striking shear zones of a few metres width and shows evidence of brittle and ductile deformation. Also stockwork-style quartz veining occurs in the vicinity of the main shaft of the old Ettadom mine. Hydrothermal alteration includes sericitisation, sulphidation and locally carbonatisation. The auriferous quartz veins mainly follow the trend of brittle to ductile deformed quartz veins; however, some occur in stockwork. Fluid inclusion studies reveal a large number of H₂O inclusions along intragranular trails in auriferous quartz vein samples, as well as an overall dominance of H₂O and H₂O-CO₂ inclusions over CO₂ inclusions. Textural observations and physico-chemical fluid inclusion properties indicate post-entrapment modifications for all quartz vein samples due to grain boundary migration recrystallisation. This process is interpreted to be responsible for the generation of the CO₂ inclusions from a H₂O-CO₂ parent fluid. In comparison with mineralisation at the Ashanti and Prestea deposits, which are characterised by CO₂±N₂ inclusions, the observed inclusion assemblage may be due to a shallower crustal level of mineralisation, or different degrees and styles of recrystallisation, or a less pronounced development of laminated quartz veins due to comparably restricted pressure fluctuations. Furthermore, the microthermometric observations allow the reconstruction of a possible retrograde P-T path, depicting near-isothermal decompression in the P-T range of the brittle/ductile transition.Editorial handling: E. Frimmel     

Identifying Key Sources of Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections

What sources of uncertainty shouldbe included in climate change projections and whatgains can be made if specific sources of uncertaintyare reduced through improved research?DIALOGUE, anintegrated assessment model, has been used to answerthese questions. Central in the approach of DIALOGUEis the concept of parallel modeling, i.e., for eachstep in the chain from emissions to climate change anumber of equivalent models areimplemented. The followingconclusions are drawn:The key source of uncertainty in global temperatureprojections appears to be the uncertainty inradiative forcing models. Within this group ofmodels uncertainty within aerosol forcing models isabout equal to the total forcing of greenhouse gasmodels. In the latter group CO₂ is dominant.The least important source of uncertainty appears tobe the gas cycle models. Within this group of modelsthe role of carbon cycle models is dominant.Uncertainty in global temperature projections hasnot been treated consistently in the literature.First, uncertainty should be calculated as a productof all uncertainty sources. Second, aparticular choice of a base year for global warmingcalculations influences the ranking of uncertainty.Because of this, a comparison of ranking resultsacross different studies is hampered. We argue that`pre-Industrial' is the best choice for studies onuncertainty.There is a linear relationship between maximumuncertainty in the year 2100 and cumulativeemissions of CO₂ over the period 1990–2100:higher emissions lead to more uncertainty.