Implications of Japan’s long term climate mitigation target and the relevance of uncertain nuclear policy

Achieving long-term climate mitigation goals in Japan faces several challenges, starting with the uncertain nuclear power policy after the 2011 earthquake, the uncertain availability and progress of energy technologies, as well as energy security concerns in light of a high dependency on fuel imports. The combined weight of these challenges needs to be clarified in terms of the energy system and macroeconomic impacts. We applied a general equilibrium energy economic model to assess these impacts on an 80% emission reduction target by 2050 considering several alternative scenarios for nuclear power deployment, technology availability, end use energy efficiency, and the price of fossil fuels. We found that achieving the mitigation target was feasible for all scenarios, with considerable reductions in total energy consumption (39%–50%), higher shares of low-carbon sources (43%–72% compared to 15%), and larger shares of electricity in the final energy supply (51%–58% compared to 42%). The economic impacts of limiting nuclear power by 2050 (3.5% GDP loss) were small compared to the lack of carbon capture and storage (CCS) (6.4% GDP loss). Mitigation scenarios led to an improvement in energy security indicators (trade dependency and diversity of primary energy sources) even in the absence of nuclear power. Moreover, preliminary analysis indicates that expanding the range of renewable energy resources can lower the macroeconomic impacts of the long term target considerably, and thus further in depth analysis is needed on this aspect.

Key policy insights

• For Japan, an emissions reduction target of 80% by 2050 is feasible without nuclear power or CCS.

• The macroeconomic impact of such a 2050 target was largest without CCS, and smallest without nuclear power.

• Energy security indicators improved in mitigation scenarios compared to the baseline.

     

Analysis of aquifer vulnerability and water quality using SINTACS and geographic weighted regression

Aquifer vulnerability and water quality were assessed in the Central Valleys of Oaxaca (Mexico) using the SINTACS method, based on a geographic information system. SINTACS layers were prepared using data such as climate (rainfall and temperature), water table, hydraulic conductivity, geology, soil type and topographic model. Maps for water quality index (WQI), contamination index and pollution sources index (PSI) were also obtained by this work. Groundwater quality in the Central Valleys may be affected by two factors, those with an anthropogenic origin and those with natural origin. High vulnerability values are located in the valleys of the basin, where granular sediments are exposed. Low vulnerability values are distributed in the basin??s ranges, where metamorphic rocks are found. Given that many of the zones with the highest groundwater vulnerability values correspond to zones with the greatest PSI values, there is great risk of groundwater contamination for the area of study because external (indicated by PSI) and internal (indicated by SINTACS) factors that cause pollution can be frequently observed in the same place. Geographic weighted regression (GWR) is used to test the dependency between WQI as dependent variable and SINTACS, PSI, Urban localities, Agriculture, Pastures and Rivers as predictors. The results indicate the non-stationary behavior of the dependent variable with respect to the predictors. While the obtained GWR models used to model WQI cannot be used in practical situations to predict the behavior of said variable, they can be used to estimate the degree to which the predictors influence the variable of interest.     

Paleoecology and radiocarbon dating of the Pleistocene megafauna of the Brazilian Intertropical Region

During the Pleistocene a fauna composed of large (biomass > 44 kg) and giant mammals (biomass > 1000 kg) that are usually associated with open environments lived in the Brazilian Intertropical Region. We present here new information concerning the paleoecology and chronology of some species of this megafauna. Carbon isotope analyses were performed for a better understanding of the paleoecology of the species Eremotherium laurillardi (Lund, 1842), Notiomastodon platensis (Ameghino, 1888) and Toxodon platensis (Owen, 1849). The δ¹³C data allow attributing a generalist diet to these species, which varied according to the kind of habitat in which they lived. In more open habitats all species were grazers; in mixed habitats E. laurillardi and T. platensis were mixed feeders, and N. platensis was grazer; and in more closed habitats all species were mixed feeders.     

Assessment to the potential mobility and toxicity of metals and metalloids in soils contaminated by old Sb–Au and As–Au mines (NW Portugal)

The main purpose of this study is to assess arsenic and antimony availability in soils, as well as Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn availability in soils derived from the schist–metagraywacke complex close to old Sb–Au mines and in soils developed from Ordovician slates and close to an old As–Au mine in Portugal. The availability was determined using a European certified sequential extraction procedure (BCR). The results demonstrated that metalloids are not readily bioavailable, because they are mainly associated with the residual fraction. Arsenic and antimony proportions in exchangeable fractions are up to 3 and 1%, respectively. However, arsenic is up to 24% in oxy-hydroxide fractions, while antimony is up to 4% in them, demonstrating the highest bioavailability of arsenic compared to that of antimony, as metalloids are weakly bound to the soils in that fraction. Therefore, arsenic tends to be more toxic than antimony in all soils studied. However, the pseudo-total contents show that both metalloids are above the Italian and Dutch guidelines. Therefore, if physico-chemical changes occur arsenic and antimony will show higher potential environmental risk than evidenced by Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn.     

THz photometers for solar flare observations from space

The search for the still unrevealed spectral shape of the mysterious THz solar flare emissions is one of the current most challenging research issues. The concept, fabrication and performance of a double THz photometer system, named SOLAR-T, is presented. Its innovative optical setup allows observations of the full solar disk and the detection of small burst transients at the same time. The detecting system was constructed to observe solar flare THz emissions on board of stratospheric balloons. The system has been integrated to data acquisition and telemetry modules for this application. SOLAR-T uses two Golay cell detectors preceded by low-pass filters made of rough surface primary mirrors and membranes, 3 and 7 THz band-pass filters, and choppers. Its photometers can detect small solar bursts (tens of solar flux units) with sub second time resolution. Tests have been conducted to confirm the entire system performance, on ambient and low pressure and temperature conditions. An artificial Sun setup was developed to simulate performance on actual observations. The experiment is planned to be on board of two long-duration stratospheric balloon flights over Antarctica and Russia in 2014–2016.     

Baryon loading and the Weibel instability in gamma-ray bursts

The dynamics of two counter-streaming electron–positron–ion unmagnetized plasma shells with zero net charge is analysed in the context of magnetic field generation in gamma-ray burst internal shocks due to the Weibel instability. The effects of large thermal motion of plasma particles, arbitrary mixture of plasma species and space charge effects are taken into account. We show that, although thermal effects slow down the instability, baryon loading leads to a non-negligible growth rate even for large temperatures and different shell velocities, thus guaranteeing the robustness and the occurrence of the Weibel instability for a wide range of scenarios.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of Low-Latitude GPS Amplitude Scintillation Measured During Solar Maximum Conditions and Implications for Receiver Performance

Ionospheric scintillations are fluctuations in the phase and/or amplitude of trans-ionospheric radio signals caused by electron density irregularities in the ionosphere. A better understanding of the scintillation pattern is important to make a better assessment of GPS receiver performance, for instance. Additionally, scintillation can be used as a tool for remote sensing of ionospheric irregularities. Therefore, the study of ionospheric scintillation has both scientific as well as technological implications. In the past few years, there has been a significant advance in the methods for analysis of scintillation and in our understanding of the impact of scintillation on GPS receiver performance. In this work, we revisit some of the existing methods of analysis of scintillation, propose an alternative approach, and apply these techniques in a comprehensive study of the characteristics of amplitude scintillation. This comprehensive study made use of 32?days of high-rate (50?Hz) measurements made by a GPS-based scintillation monitor located in S?o José dos Campos, Brazil (23.2°S, 45.9°W, ?17.5° dip latitude) near the Equatorial Anomaly during high solar flux conditions. The variability of the decorrelation time (τ₀) of scintillation patterns is presented as a function of scintillation severity index (S ₄). We found that the values of τ₀ tend to decrease with the increase of S ₄, confirming the results of previous studies. In addition, we found that, at least for the measurements made during this campaign, averaged values of τ₀ (for fixed S ₄ index values) did not vary much as a function of local time. Our results also indicate a significant impact of τ₀ in the GPS carrier loop performance for S ₄?≥?0.7. An alternative way to compute the probability of cycle slip that takes into account the fading duration time is also presented. The results of this approach show a 38% probability of cycle slips during strong scintillation scenarios (S ₄ close to 1 and τ₀ near 0.2?s). Finally, we present results of an analysis of the individual amplitude fades observed in our set of measurements. This analysis suggests that users operating GPS receivers with C/N ₀ thresholds around 30?dB-Hz and above can be affected significantly by low-latitude scintillation.     

Benthic foraminifera distribution in a tourist lagoon in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: a response to anthropogenic impacts

Rodrigo de Freitas Lagoon, located in the Rio de Janeiro City, receives several types of polluted discharges. The knowledge of the sediment microfauna correlated with heavy metal and organic matter concentrations could supply important data about the conditions of the lagoon. The benthic foraminiferal assemblage presented larger diversity and more abundant samples in the lagoon entrance than in the inner area. The Ammonia tepida - Elphidiumexcavatum foraminiferal assemblage is characterized by dwarf, corroded and weak organisms. Agglutinated species were found only near the entrance. Low abundance values and sterility of five samples in the inner area (north/northeast) can be caused by high levels of heavy metals and organic matter. A. tepida shows negative correlation with increasing heavy metals values. PAHs and coprostanol high indexes, and the absence or low presence of microfauna in samples around the lagoon margin confirm illegal flows from gas stations and domestic sewage.     

Seismic risk assessment and hazard mapping in Nepal

Natural Hazards - Seismic risk in the form of impending disaster has been seen from past records that moderate-to-large earthquakes have caused the loss of life and property in all parts of Nepal....