Practical Postcalibration Uncertainty Analysis: Yucca Mountain, Nevada

The values of parameters in a groundwater flow model govern the precision of predictions of future system behavior. Predictive precision, thus, typically depends on an ability to infer values of system properties from historical measurements through calibration. When such data are scarce, or when their information content with respect to parameters that are most relevant to predictions of interest is weak, predictive uncertainty may be high, even if the model is "calibrated." Recent advances help recognize this condition, quantitatively evaluate predictive uncertainty, and suggest a path toward improved predictive accuracy by identifying sources of predictive uncertainty and by determining what observations will most effectively reduce this uncertainty. We demonstrate linear and nonlinear predictive error/uncertainty analyses as applied to a groundwater flow model of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the United States' proposed site for disposal of high-level radioactive waste. Linear and nonlinear uncertainty analyses are readily implemented as an adjunct to model calibration with medium to high parameterization density. Linear analysis yields contributions made by each parameter to a prediction's uncertainty and the worth of different observations, both existing and yet-to-be-gathered, toward reducing this uncertainty. Nonlinear analysis provides more accurate characterization of the uncertainty of model predictions while yielding their (approximate) probability distribution functions. This article applies the above methods to a prediction of specific discharge and confirms the uncertainty bounds on specific discharge supplied in the Yucca Mountain Project License Application.     

Evaluation of Combined Direct-Push Methods Used for Aquifer Model Generation

Most established methods to characterize aquifer structure and hydraulic conductivities of hydrostratigraphical units are not capable of delivering sufficient information in the spatial resolution that is desired for sophisticated numerical contaminant transport modeling and adapted remediation design. With hydraulic investigation methods based on the direct-push (DP) technology such as DP slug tests, DP injection logging, and the hydraulic profiling tool, it is possible to rapidly delineate hydrogeological structures and estimate their hydraulic conductivity in shallow unconsolidated aquifers without the need for wells. A combined application of these tools was used for the investigation of a contaminated German refinery site and for the setup of hydraulic aquifer models. The quality of DP investigation and the models was evaluated by comparisons of tracer transport simulations using these models and measured breakthroughs of two natural gradient tracer tests. Model scenarios considering the information of all tools together showed good reproduction of the measured breakthroughs, indicating the suitability of the approach and a minor impact of potential technical limitations. Using the DP slug tests alone yielded significantly higher deviations for the determined hydraulic conductivities compared to considering two or three of the tools. Realistic aquifer models developed on basis of such combined DP investigation approaches can help optimize remediation concepts or identify flow regimes for aquifers with a complex structure.     

Numerical Modeling of Atoll Island Hydrogeology

We implemented Ayers and Vachers' (1986) inclusive conceptual model for atoll island aquifers in a comprehensive numerical modeling study to evaluate the response of the fresh water lens to selected controlling climatic and geologic variables. Climatic factors include both constant and time-varying recharge rates, with particular attention paid to the effects of El Niño and the associated drought it brings to the western Pacific. Geologic factors include island width; hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost Holocene-age aquifer, which contains the fresh water lens; the depth to the contact with the underlying, and much more conductive, Pleistocene karst aquifer, which transmits tidal signals to the base of the lens; and the presence or absence of a semiconfining reef flat plate on the ocean side. Sensitivity analyses of steady-steady simulations show that lens thickness is most strongly sensitive to the depth to the Holocene-Pleistocene contact and to the hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer, respectively. Comparisons between modeling results and published observations of atoll island lens thicknesses suggest a hydraulic conductivity of approximately 50 m/d for leeward islands and approximately 400 m/d for windward islands. Results of transient simulations show that lens thickness fluctuations during average seasonal conditions and El Niño events are quite sensitive to island width, recharge rate, and hydraulic conductivity of the Holocene aquifer. In general, the depletion of the lens during drought conditions is most drastic for small, windward islands. Simulation results suggest that recovery from a 6-month drought requires about 1.5 years.     

Application of a Discrete-Continuum Model to Karst Aquifers in North China

A generalized discrete-continuum model is developed to simulate ground water flow in the karst aquifers of North China. The model is a hybrid numerical flow model, which takes into account both quick conduit flow and diffusive fissure flow. The conduit flow is represented by a discrete network model, and the fissure flow is modeled by a continuum approach. The developed model strongly emphasizes the function of the conduits in the flow fields. They control the general drainage pattern, as demonstrated in the simulation of a complex karst aquifer in North China. The model reproduces reasonably well the flow field in response to an unanticipated discharge of ground water from the karst aquifer into an underground mine based on the aquifer parameters that are manually calibrated from a multiple-well pumping test. Sensitivity of the model to the aquifer parameters was evaluated in the context of the case study.     

Design of a Low-Cost Bamboo Well

Bamboo wells are an economical alternative for water supply wells in developing countries. The design of the bamboo well described in this article was developed based on field tests. Following field experiments, the screen in the bamboo well was fabricated with seven 3-m-long bamboo strips, each 2 cm wide and 1 cm thick. The strips were bolted on 1-cm-wide mild steel rings spaced 30 cm along the length of the bamboo strips, with 9-cm-long galvanized iron pipe end pieces. Pipes used in the bamboo well were fabricated by wrapping polythene sheets on the bamboo screens. Excellent performance, low cost, and good service life justify the use of a bamboo well for ground water withdrawal in developing countries.     

Numerical Modeling of Emulsified Oil Distribution in Heterogeneous Aquifers

In situ anaerobic bioremediation using edible oil emulsions will be most effective if the oil droplets can be brought into close contact with the contaminant to be treated. However, uniformly distributing oil in heterogeneous aquifers can be difficult. The impact of injection conditions on emulsion distribution in a three-dimensional heterogeneous aquifer is examined using MODFLOW and RT3D. Emulsion retention is simulated using a rate-limited Langmuir isotherm. Volume and flow contact efficiency are shown to be functions of mass of oil injected, injection fluid volume, well spacing, and injection sequence. Regression equations are developed relating dimensionless scaling factors to expected contact efficiency for area treatment and barriers. Cleanup time for uncontacted zones is estimated using a mobile-immobile zone modeling approach.     

Inverse Modeling Approach to Allogenic Karst System Characterization

Allogenic karst systems function in a particular way that is influenced by the type of water infiltrating through river water losses, by karstification processes, and by water quality. Management of this system requires a good knowledge of its structure and functioning, for which a new methodology based on an inverse modeling approach appears to be well suited. This approach requires both spring and river inflow discharge measurements and a continuous record of chemical parameters in the river and at the spring. The inverse model calculates unit hydrographs and the impulse responses of fluxes from rainfall hydraulic head at the spring or rainfall flux data, the purpose of which is hydrograph separation. Hydrograph reconstruction is done using rainfall and river inflow data as model input and enables definition at each time step of the ratio of each component. Using chemical data, representing event and pre-event water, as input, it is possible to determine the origin of spring water (either fast flow through the epikarstic zone or slow flow through the saturated zone). This study made it possible to improve a conceptual model of allogenic karst system functioning. The methodology is used to study the Bas-Agly and the Cent Font karst systems, two allogenic karst systems in Southern France.