热带太平洋海平面低频变化

本文选取ECMWF ORAS4再分析数据对1959-2015年热带太平洋海平面的低频变化进行了分析。热带太平洋海平面年际变化第一模态反映了ENSO爆发阶段的海平面变化,热带东、西太平洋变化反相,其时间序列与Niño3.4指数高度相关。海平面第二模态则体现了El Niño爆发前后热带太平洋暖水的输运过程。El Niño爆发前热带西太平洋暖水聚集的位置,以及爆发后暖水向赤道外输运的位置在两类El Niño事件中均有所不同。此外,ENSO的周期在近半个世纪发生了显著的年代际变化,这一变化与热带太平洋的年代际变化有关。热带太平洋的年代际变化对海平面趋势变化也有着显著的影响。卫星高度计观测到的近20年海平面的快速上升（下降）正是由20世纪90年代后热带太平洋频繁的位相转换引起的。     

Distribution,genesis, and pollution risk of ammonium nitrogen in groundwater in an arid loess plain,northwestern China

Nitrogenous pollutants from intense human activities have become serious environmental and health problems worldwide, particularly in groundwater source areas used for public water supply. To investigate the genesis and pollution risks associated with elevated concentrations of ammonium nitrogen in a groundwater source area, investigations were undertaken in the Jinji groundwater source area, located in an arid loess plain in northwestern China where 16 groundwater samples were collected from an aquifer used for water supply. The investigation indicated that high concentrations of ammonium nitrogen originated mainly from: infiltration of water from the Yellow River; livestock; and the discharge of industrial wastes. Measured parameters including pH, the permanganate index and the oxidation reduction potential could be used as important indicators of the genesis of ammonium nitrogen. A modified DRTCLN model was applied to the observed distribution of ammonium nitrogen to assess pollution risk of regional groundwater. The model was optimized by rebuilding the index system, and the analytic hierarchy process was used to calculate the rating scale of each index. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to analyze the uncertainty of results of the risk assessment. The result showed that the risk value is relatively low in most areas of the groundwater source area. Only an industrial area in the southwestern part of the groundwater source area was classified as high risk; it should be the key factor of pollution control.     

核电厂地震PSA方法研究探讨

首先回顾了地震概率安全评价(Seismic Probability Safety Assessment,SPSA)方法的发展历史及应用现状;然后基于SPSA的要素,研究了SPSA方法中需要解决的主要问题,重点是地震易损性分析,并根据SPSA的任务描述SPSA流程,主要探讨电厂走访和继电器评价的方法;最后结合我国概率安全评价(Probability Safety Assessment,PSA)的研究进展、SPSA的基础等实际状况,提出适合我国的SPSA实施路线的建议,以保障核电站地震情况下的安全.     

Research on the impact assessment of urbanization on air environment with urban environmental entropy model: a case study

A new concept of urban environmental entropy was introduced to investigate the effect of urbanization on air environment considering the fact that rapid development of urbanization may have negative influence on the whole air environment system. The urban environmental entropies which were built based on the generalized thermodynamic entropy and the generalized statistic entropy, respectively. These two entropy models have been used to analyze the relationship between the development of urbanization and air environment. The negative entropy flow mechanism was proposed to reveal the advantages and approaches of regional cities in improving air environment system. A case study on 17 cities in Shandong Province of China showed that the values of urban environmental entropy were negative in most cities from 2001 to 2008, which implies that there is a positive correlation between the development of urbanization and air environment and that is a negative entropy development level in Shandong Province of China. In 2008, the urbanization of Qingdao city and Jinan city improved their air environments. Moreover, restraints for both cities in air environment improvement were recognized according to the analysis of negative entropy flow mechanism.     

滑坡监测的自适应约束抗差滤波算法研究

在滑坡的动态监测中通常存在先验几何信息和物理信息,现有的滤波算法并不能够充分利用这些信息,为控制几何观测异常对形变参数估计的影响,提出一种利用滑坡力学状态信息的约束滤波模型.同时,利用约束方程获得有益信息,精确地确定测量的等价权,给出相应的自适应约束抗差滤波算法,并通过实例说明了带有约束的滤波算法更能提高状态参数估计的...     

基于直方变差图的土地覆盖数据集多尺度精度评价

针对目前精度评价尺度单一的问题,提出基于直方变差图的多尺度精度评价方法,分别在像元尺度和亚像元尺度进行土地覆盖数据集精度评价。在像元尺度利用驻点作为采样工具直接评价数据集精度;亚像元尺度上,则利用非严格定义的驻点和驻点直方变差图对不同面积和空间结构的优势类进行精度评价。并以浙江北部典型区域为实验区,Landsat TM/ETM+为参考数据,对UMD、IGBP DISCover、MOD12Q1-2001、GLC2000、GlobCover2009等5种大尺度土地覆盖数据集进行多尺度精度评价实验。结果表明,多尺度精度评价方法能够全面地评价土地覆盖数据集的精度,提供更加丰富的多尺度精度信息。像元尺度精度评价可在一定程度上消除由于参考数据与数据集间的空间匹配造成的误差,评价结果更加客观;亚像元尺度精度评价能有效反映亚像元尺度优势地物面积及空间结构与精度的关系。     

基于土地利用分类模型和重力模型耦合的人口分布模拟——以武汉市人口数据为例

将土地分类模型和重力模型耦合形成新模型,并以武汉市人口数据为例,用耦合后的新模型模生成武汉市人口网格数据.经数据验证表明,耦合后的新模型在计算精度方面有了较大的提高.     

基于模糊物元模型的中国旅游生态安全评价及障碍因子诊断研究

基于DPSIR模型构建旅游生态安全评价指标体系,利用模糊物元模型对中国31个省(市、区)(不含港澳台)旅游生态安全进行动态评价,并运用空间自相关分析空间格局演化特征.同时借助障碍度模型,对旅游生态安全的障碍因子进行诊断.结果表明:①旅游生态安全呈现出波动增长的"W"型演化趋势.2013-2016年中国旅游生态安全在空间...