Hyperaccretion after the Blandford-Znajek Process： A New Model for GRBs with X-Ray Flares Observed in Early Afterglows

We propose a three-stage model with Blandford-Znajek (BZ) and hyperaccretion process to interpret the recent observations of early afterglows of Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs). In the first stage, the prompt GRB is powered by a rotating black hole (BH) invoking the BZ process. The second stage is a quiet stage, in which the BZ process is shut off, and the accretion onto the BH is depressed by the torque exerted by the magnetic coupling (MC) process. Part of the rotational energy transported by the MC process from the BH is stored in the disk as magnetic energy. In the third stage, the MC process is shut off when the magnetic energy in the disk accumulates and triggers magnetic instability. At this moment, the hyperaccretion process may set in, and the jet launched in this restarted central engine generates the observed X-ray flares. This model can account for the energies and timescales of GRBs with X-ray flares observed in early afterglows.     

国家级极端高温短期气候预测系统的研制及应用

目前,国家级旬、月极端高温预测的业务工作尚未展开,国家级极端高温短期气候预测系统的研制为中国高温预测业务提供了一个有效平台.该系统以百分位相对阈值和35°C、38°C绝对阈值作为高温阈值指标,应用月动力预测模式、动力预测与统计降尺度相结合、物理统计相似三种不同的方法,预测未来1～40天的旬、月极端高温发生概率及高温日数,定期滚动发布预测产品.并以相关系数为衡量指标,应用交叉检验方法对三种方法的预测效果进行分析,结果表明不同方法高相关区的空间分布存在差异,在进行高温预测时,应综合各方法高相关区的预测结果给出综合预测意见.对2007年7月极端高温预测个例分析表明三种方法均有一定的预测技巧.     

泰安市地下水管理模型初探

十余年来,由于超量开采岩溶水资源,致使泰安市区出现了地面塌陷、地裂缝、岩溶水污染等一系列环境地质问题。本文介绍了以抑制该类问题发生、发展为约束条件的地下水管理模型的建立方法,通过运转管理模型,作出泰安市区岩溶水的最优开采量,并通过与开采现状的对比,说明目前岩溶水开采的极不合理性。     

北极臭氧垂直分布和天气尺度变化的观测研究

北极地区臭氧对北极气候和环境系统起着重要作用。研究其分布和变化有助于了解北极的气候和环境及其对全球气候系统的影响,有助于气候和环境变化的数值预报。中国北极科学探测1999在北冰洋楚可奇海域成功的进行了大气臭氧观测。通过在中国“雪龙”号破冰船甲板上（于1999年8月18-24日在75°N,160°W附近处）释放大气臭氧探空仪获得了高分辨率的大气垂直结构和臭氧分布资料,可以进行大气尺度的大气臭氧变化研究。分析大气监测资料、TOMS臭氧总量资料和NCEP大气环流资料表明,大气臭氧总量随着对流层顶的低一高一低变化呈高一低一高的变化过程。研究还表明,大气柱的臭氧总量与13公里以下的大气臭氧含量关系密切,而在约20公里处的大气臭氧浓度最大值的变化与整个气柱臭氧的关系不大。500 hPa天气形势图上一个弱一强一弱的西南天气型造成的弱臭氧平流可能是这次臭氧变化的主要原因。     

CO2倍增对我国东部极端降水的影响

利用GFDL-CM2.1耦合模式控制试验和CO₂增长试验逐日降水输出结果,评估了CO₂浓度加倍对我国极端降水变化的影响。结果表明：CO₂浓度加倍导致我国东部地区年极端降水的强度增强、降水量显著增多及降水频次显著增加（除华北南部外）; CO₂浓度加倍对我国春夏季极端降水影响较大,导致东部多数地区春夏季极端降水频次增加,强度增强;而CO₂浓度加倍导致华北南部和长江中下游春夏季雨日减少以及小雨、中雨减少,从而导致年总降水量减少。     

Review of Rapid Transformation of Floodplain Wetlands in Northeast China: Roles of Human Development and Global Environmental Change

Northeast China is the region with the largest area of wetlands in China. The Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain are large freshwater marsh distribution regions that are affected by climate warming and by the increasing frequency and density of extreme weather and are the regions most subject to disturbances by human activities in Northeast China. The wetlands of the Sanjiang Plain and the Songnen Plain have shrunk severely in the past 60 years, and wetland functions have been reduced substantially because of climate change, unreasonable land use, fire episodes, engineering and construction works and urbanization. Large-scale agricultural development started in the 1950s has been the most important driving factor for wetland loss and degradation in the Sanjiang Plain. Water shortage has been the most important factor for degradation and fragmentation of wetlands in the Songnen Plain. To mitigate wetland degradation and better protect wetlands, special regulations, long-term mechanisms and technical support of wetland protection should be established. A wetland compensation program should be implemented, and technologies for increasing the adaptive capacity of wetlands should be developed. Moreover, it is most important to find the balanced threshold between agricultural development and wetland protection.     

Middle Holocene Organic Carbon and Biomarker Records from the South Yellow Sea: Relationship to the East Asian Monsoon

The East Asian monsoon system influences the sedimentation and transport of organic matter in East Asian marginal seas that is derived from both terrestrial and marine sources. In this study, we determined organic carbon (OC) isotope values, concentrations of marine biomarkers, and levels of OC and total nitrogen (TN) in core YSC-1 from the central South Yellow Sea (SYS). Our objectives were to trace the sources of OC and variations in palaeoproductivity since the middle Holocene, and their relationships with the East Asian monsoon system. The relative contributions of terrestrial versus marine organic matter in core sediments were estimated using a two-end-member mixing model of OC isotopes. Results show that marine organic matter has been the main sediment constituent since the middle Holocene. The variation of terrestrial organic carbon concentration (OCter) is similar to the EASM history. However, the variation of marine organic carbon concentration (OCmar) is opposite to that of the EASM curve, suggesting OCmar is distinctly influenced by terrestrial material input. Inputs of terrestrial nutrients into the SYS occur in the form of fluvial and aeolian dust, while concentrations of nutrients in surface water are derived mainly from bottom water via the Yellow Sea circulation system, which is controlled by the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). Variations in palaeoproductivity represented by marine organic matter and biomarker records are, in general, consistent with the recent EAWM intensity studies, thus, compared with EASM, EAWM may play the main role to control the marine productivity variations in the SYS.     

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Effects of space weathering on diagnostic spectral features: Results from He+ irradiation experiments

We performed ion irradiation of mineral samples with 50 keV He⁺, aimed to investigate ion irradiation effects on diagnostic spectral features. Reflectance spectra of samples in 0.375–2.5 μm are measured before and after ion irradiation. Silicates, including Luobusha olivine, plagioclase and basaltic glass, have shown reddening and darkening of reflectance spectra at the VIS–NIR range. Olivine is more sensitive to ion irradiation than plagioclase and basaltic glass. Irradiated Panzhihua ilmenite exhibits higher reflectance and stronger absorption features, which is totally different from lunar soil and analog silicate materials in other experiments. Using continuum removal and MGM fit, we extracted and compared absorption features of olivine spectra before and after irradiation. Ion irradiation can induce band strength decrease of olivine but negligible band centers shift. We estimate band centers shift caused by ion irradiation are quite limited, even less than variations due to chemical composition in silicates. It provides one possible explanation for no systematic shift in band positions in lunar soil. Irradiated Luobusha olivine spectrum matches spectra of olivine-dominated asteroids. Our results suggest space weathering should be new clues to explain the subtle difference between A-type asteroid spectra and laboratory spectra of olivine.