福建省冬季暴雨过程及其环流特征

利用福建省66个气象观测站1960年12月至2008年2月的暴雨资料,分析了福建冬季暴雨的时空特征及主要影响天气系统。结果表明,冬季暴雨主要发生在闽西;福建冬季暴雨主要是南支槽东移、切变线维持和冷空气南下影响所致;冬季暴雨的产生与充沛的水汽、对流不稳定和辐合上升运动密切相关,但大气层结比汛期暴雨要稳定得多;冬季暴雨异常与500 hPa大气环流和赤道中东太平洋海温异常关系密切,它们可能主要通过大气环流的改变引起福建冬季暴雨异常。     

Temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau during the past 600 years inferred from ice cores and tree rings

The climatological signal of δ¹⁸O variations preserved in ice cores recovered from Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau (TP) was calibrated with regional meteorological data for the past 50 years. For the period AD 1860–2000, 5-yearly averaged ice core δ¹⁸O and a summer temperature reconstruction derived from pollen data from the same ice core were compared. The statistical results provide compelling evidence that Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸O variations represent summer temperature changes for the central TP, and hence regional temperature history during the past 600 years was revealed. A comparison of Puruogangri ice core δ¹⁸О with several other temperature reconstructions shows that broad-scale climate anomalies since the Little Ice Age occurred synchronously across the eastern and southern TP, and the Himalayas. Common cold periods were identified in the 15th century, 1625–1645 AD, 1660–1700 AD, 1725–1775 AD, 1795–1830 AD, 1850–1870 AD, 1890–1920 AD, 1940–1950 AD, and 1975–1985 AD. The period 1725–1775 AD was one of the most prolonged cool periods during the past 400 years and corresponded to maximum Little Ice Age glacier advance of monsoonal temperate glaciers of the TP.     

新疆巴楚地区金伯利质角砾橄榄岩物质组成及含矿性研究

本文讨论出露于新疆巴楚瓦吉里塔格地区的一种角砾状超镁铁岩,其结构、成分复杂,由超镁铁岩包体、斑晶（或捕晶）及基质三部分构成。超镁铁岩包体常见单辉辉石岩、纯橄岩,其次有少量橄榄辉石岩。研究表明均属基性岩浆结晶岩,本次研究未见幔源橄榄岩包体;斑晶主要为橄榄石,次为金云母,基质由微晶（10~40μm）单斜辉石、钙铁榴石、钙钛矿、磁铁矿（或含钛磁铁矿）、蛇纹石、碳酸盐及金属硫化物等组成;捕晶包括单斜辉石、褐色角闪石、磷灰石、含钛磁铁矿等。多种地球化学判别图均指示其属金伯利岩类,但低MgO和低Mg#比值、高TFe2O3和CaO等区别于世界典型金伯利岩。与典型金伯利岩有相似之处,该类岩石均具有向右陡倾的REE配分型式,但（La/Yb）n比值略偏低;微量元素蛛网图也与典型金伯利岩基本一致,仅显示更加富集不相容元素,具有更显著K, Ti负异常,且部分样品出现Rb, Zr, P负异常,指示其源区地幔交代程度偏低。鉴于岩石的产状、结构构造、矿物组合和地球化学性质近似于金伯利岩,但缺少高铬铬铁矿、镁铝榴石、镁钛铁矿等金伯利岩指示矿物,故不属典型的金伯利岩,可称之为金伯利质角砾橄榄岩。就少量研究样品所示信息,该类岩石不具有寻找金刚石的潜在远景,但鉴于巴楚及邻区尚有许多角砾状超镁铁岩岩墙和岩脉出露,该区金刚石成矿条件有待更进一步的研究。     

The unification of RBLs with XBLs

Many astronomers have discussed the property of BL Lacertae objects, including the variation of spectrum, the correlation of multi-wave bands and the property of polarization, which could give good information for studying intrinsic correlation of components and position of BL Lacertae objects. In the paper, we investigated the properties of RBLs and XBLs and RBLs/XBLs (these objects can also be found by radio survey as by X-ray survey). Firstly, we collected the light curve of 28 BL Lacertae objects, and gained their short timescales by Structure Function (SF). Secondly, we analyzed the distribution of the short timescales of some BL Lacertae objects, including 28 objects’ timescales calculated by SF, as well as the distribution of the redshift and the black hole mass and the flux densities of the multi-wavebands (radio, near-infrared, optical and Gamma-ray). Based on statistical analysis, the result of the paper support the unification model of RBLs and XBLs.     

基于GeoStudio的边坡稳定性分析及支护方案选择的理论探讨

本文选择大连市中山区长利巷地区的边坡,通过现场采取岩土样,进行室内试验得出各地层力学物理参数,对边坡进行稳定性分析。针对目前所拥有的模拟软件与方法,分析并筛选出适合该边坡的模拟软件。利用GeoStudio软件建模、模拟,使用Morgenstern-Price方法进行计算,通过分析得到计算结果,该边坡的安全安全系数为1. 127,认为其属于不稳定边坡。对于不稳定边坡,本文对主流的边坡支护方法进行分析筛选,拟采用扶壁式挡土墙支护方案对其进行预防。根据规范设计挡土墙尺寸,并对该挡土墙进行抗倾覆抗滑移验算,得出的验算安全系数满足规范要求,由此可得知该支护方案方法合理,技术可行。     

拉萨地块措勤-隆格尔地区铁矿床成岩时代、岩石成因及构造环境指示

为深入了解中北部拉萨地块构造背景,利用LA-ICP-MS技术对洛布勒铁矿床成矿花岗闪长岩锆石进行了U-Th-Pb同位素测定,分析了隆格尔、洛布勒铁矿床侵入岩岩石地球化学和Sr-Nd-Pb同位素组成.获得洛布勒花岗闪长岩锆石U-Pb年龄为111.3±1.6 Ma(MSWD=0.61,n=9).隆格尔和洛布勒铁矿床侵入岩高硅(66.63%~69.02%和64.33%~64.82%)、富碱(全碱为5.91%~6.40%和5.81%~6.05%)、低A/CNK(0.91~0.97和0.94~0.95)、SiO2与P2O5含量负相关;稀土元素总量较低(∑REE为123.11×10^-6~148.83×10^-6和96.17×10^-6~101.92×10^-6),球粒陨石标准化配分模式图右倾,弱Eu负异常(0.70~0.82和0.79~0.81),富集大离子亲石元素Rb、Th、U、K、Pb等,亏损Ba和高场强元素Nb、Ta、Sr、Ti等.隆格尔花岗岩全岩和斜长石(206Pb/204Pb)t为18.474和18.626,(207Pb/204Pb)t为15.657和15.722,(208Pb/204Pb)t为38.592和39.145,(87Sr/86Sr)i为0.704 757 6和0.707 047 3,(143Nd/144Nd)i为0.512 281和0.512 339,εNd(t)为-4.13和-2.99,tDM2为1.15 Ga和1.24 Ga;洛布勒花岗闪长岩(206Pb/204Pb)t比值为18.281,(207Pb/204Pb)t比值为15.616,(208Pb/204Pb)t比值为38.369,(87Sr/86Sr)i为0.706 551 4;(143Nd/144Nd)i为0.512 309,εNd(t)为-3.62,tDM2为1.20 Ga.结果表明,措勤-隆格尔铁矿床成矿侵入岩为中钾-高钾钙碱性岩I型花岗岩,为早白垩世晚期岛弧岩浆活动产物,岩浆源于地壳物质部分熔融,岩浆演化过程经历了壳幔岩浆混合和围岩混染.结合前人研究成果,通过对比白垩纪中北部拉萨地块和南部羌塘地块成矿事件的差异,提出中北部拉萨地块113±3 Ma岩浆活动和Fe(-Cu)成矿事件与向南俯冲的班公湖-怒江洋壳发生断离有关.     

雄安新区蓟县系雾迷山组岩溶热储特征、主控因素及有利区预测*

雄安新区蓟县系雾迷山组中赋存丰富的地热资源,研究雾迷山组岩溶热储特征及优质储集层发育的主控因素是地热资源勘探的基础。综合运用野外剖面、岩心、薄片、钻井、测井、录井等地质与地球物理资料,对雾迷山组岩溶热储特征和演化过程进行了深入研究,明确了优质储集层形成的控制因素,预测了有利靶区。结果表明,雾迷山组岩溶热储主要岩性为晶粒白云岩、颗粒白云岩、微生物白云岩、硅质白云岩和角砾白云岩等,溶蚀孔洞、裂缝及其组合为主要的储集空间类型。雾迷山组热储平均孔隙度为3.18%,平均渗透率为91.48×10^-3 μm²;其中角砾白云岩物性最好。雾迷山组岩溶热储经历了沉积—准同生期成孔(雾迷山沉积期)、Ⅰ期表生增孔(雾迷山沉积期后至青白口纪前)、Ⅰ期埋藏减孔(青白口纪前至三叠纪)、Ⅱ期表生增孔(三叠纪—古近纪)、Ⅱ期埋藏减孔(新近纪—第四纪)5个阶段,岩性及岩相、成岩作用和构造应力是雾迷山组有利热储形成的主控因素。藻云坪—云坪相、表生岩溶、埋藏溶蚀、准同生岩溶、岩溶高地—斜坡和地层裂缝段比率大于0.4的6项叠合区是研究区最有利的岩溶热储发育区。     

Multi-step ahead short-term predictions of storm surge level using CNN and LSTM network

Storm surges pose significant danger and havoc to the coastal residents' safety, property, and lives, particularly at offshore locations with shallow water levels. Predictions of storm surges with hours of warning time are important for evacuation measures in low-lying regions and coastal management plans. In addition to experienced predictions and numerical models, artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are also being used widely for short-term storm surge prediction owing to their merits in good level of prediction accuracy and rapid computations. Convolutional neural network (CNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM) are two of the most important models among AI techniques. However, they have been scarcely utilised for surge level (SL) forecasting, and combinations of the two models are even rarer. This study applied CNN and LSTM both individually and in combination towards multi-step ahead short-term storm surge level prediction using observed SL and wind information. The architectures of the CNN, LSTM, and two sequential techniques of combining the models (LSTM–CNN and CNN–LSTM) were constructed via a trial-and-error approach and knowledge obtained from previous studies. As a case study, 11 a of hourly observed SL and wind data of the Xiuying Station, Hainan Province, China, were organised as inputs for training to verify the feasibility and superiority of the proposed models. The results show that CNN and LSTM had evident advantages over support vector regression (SVR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP), and the combined models outperformed the individual models (CNN and LSTM), mostly by 4％–6％. However, on comparing the model computed predictions during two severe typhoons that resulted in extreme storm surges, the accuracy was found to improve by over 10％ at all forecasting steps.     

Assessment of Surface Ecological Quality of Grassland Mining Area and Identification of Its Impact Range

Natural Resources Research - High-intensity coal mining in grasslands has negative impact on the surface ecology of the mining area and its surroundings. This impact shows spatio-temporal...     

民族文化资源的类型特征及成因分析——以格萨尔（果洛）文化生态保护实验区为例

由人类非物质文化遗产《格萨（斯）尔》史诗派生出的格萨尔文化是青藏高原地区独特的区域文化形态。文化资源是文化的载体和展示形式,具有价值性和不可替代性。研究格萨尔文化资源的分类、空间分布及成因对于探讨青藏高原地区人地关系,保护人类非物质遗产有非常重要的意义。果洛藏族自治州是格萨尔文化资源最为富集的区域,并于2014年被授予格萨尔文化生态保护实验区。本文首先对格萨尔文化资源进行界定和分类,并以果洛为例,探讨格萨尔文化资源的空间分布特征及与自然地理条件（高程、水源、坡度、坡向、可达性）的关系,并分析影响文化资源分布的原因,得出以下结论：① 格萨尔文化资源可以分为4大类,11个亚类和60个子类,果洛的格萨尔文化资源覆盖全部类型,共1189个;② 果洛格萨尔文化资源空间分布具有聚集性,其中A类文化人（团体）类集聚程度最高,并通过最近邻分析和密度分析对各类文化资源的集聚空间进行识别;③ 格萨尔文化资源的空间分布与自然地理条件有关,多位于海拔相对较低、距水源地较近的位置,不同类型的文化资源分布对坡度、坡向和可达性的关系不同。