Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation on Groundwater Resources of Medium Salinity in Tarim Basin and Development and Demonstration of Under-mulch-drip Irrigation Technology for Cotton

The groundwater of medium salinity refers to the groundwater with a mineralization degree of 2-7 g/L that can be directly or indirectly used for irrigation. This paper determined the distribution area of the groundwater with medium salinity in Tarim Basin, estimated the total amount of recharge resources and exploitable quantity of the groundwater of medium salinity. The irrigation water quality assessment was conducted on the groundwater of medium salinity by using multiple factors and methods. The salt tolerance parameters and irrigation water mineralization control parameters of the cotton in under-mulch-drip irrigation were determined. The under-mulch-drip irritation technology for cotton in groundwater of medium salinity was developed and applied successfully to the demonstration area. The social, economic and ecological effects of this technology as well as the application prospect were analysed. This paper also puts forward two questions that need to be further studied     

大气臭氧与气溶胶垂直分布的高空气球探测

本文给出了1993年9月12日利用高空科学气球在河北省香河地区探测到的大气臭氧和气溶胶的垂直分布。结果发现:(1) 大气臭氧的数密度在整个对流层较低(～10[12]mol/cm3)，并从地面到对流层顶略有下降；对流层顶以上开始快速增加，极值层高度在～24 km，其值为4.78×10[12]mol/cm3；臭氧分压有类似的分布特征，极值146×10[-4]Pa，位于同一高度；(2) 在平流层低层，臭氧分压有一个次极值62×10[-4]Pa，位于15～16 km；(3) 0～30 km大气气溶胶数密度呈现出三个峰值:143，8和1.1 个/cm[3]，分别位于近地面、5 km和21 km；（4）气溶胶的数密度谱在对流层为双模态；在平流层，次峰消失。同时，我们还与其他观测结果作了比较分析。     

APN技术在地震前兆观测系统中的应用

介绍基于GPRS的APN无线网络通讯技术,并应用于地震前兆观测系统。实际运行结果表明,应用该技术系统可提高数据传输的稳定性、可靠性、安全性和实时性,是地震前兆观测数据传输的有效通讯手段。     

Control of dust emissions by geomorphic conditions, wind environments and land use in northern China: An examination based on dust storm frequency from 1960 to 2003

The degree to which dust emissions are controlled by geomorphic conditions, wind environments and land use was investigated using the dust storm frequency (DSF) and data from more than 300 meteorological stations throughout northern China. Our analysis showed that most dust emissions originated in gobi deserts that developed in piedmont alluvial fans of the Kunlun, Qilian and Helan mountains. Dust emissions are low from other gobi desert regions, such as the northern Gurbantunggut and eastern Taklimakan, where high vegetation coverage restrained dust emissions or where dust-size particles are not abundant after a long period of strong wind erosion. Sandy deserts with relatively high vegetation coverage or an extensive cover by mobile sands are not a major dust source. Although the highest dust emissions did not appear in regions with the highest wind energy, DSF trends in each region from 1960 to 2003 were closely related to local wind activity. DSF was low in regions with high levels of human activity, where the mean DSF from 1960 to 2003 did not exceed 4 days/year; even from the 1960s to the early 1970s, the period with the greatest DSF, frequency did not exceed 8 days/year, which indicates that extensive land use did not contribute to DSF. The low DSF in these areas might result from the fact that although land use could produce abundant fine soil fractions, vegetation coverage and soil moisture remained higher than in the gobi deserts of arid China, thereby decreasing dust-storm occurrence.     

小冰期结束以来贡嘎山海螺沟冰川退缩区土壤化学风化与发育过程

选择海螺沟冰川退缩区,对冰川退缩年龄分别为0年、30年、40年、52年、80年、120年的样点按土壤发生层分层采集样品,通过分析样品的化学风化速率及理化性质变化,探讨小冰期结束以来土壤发育过程及影响因素,并评估不同阶段土壤质量。结果表明,退缩区前40年样点中主要以碳酸盐风化为主,80年后硅酸盐风化作用增强。土壤长期风化速率随土壤年龄呈现升高-降低-升高的趋势,52年样点长期风化速率最低,为48.06 cmol/（m² ·a）,矿物组成和气候是影响土壤风化速率的重要原因。土壤的粒度组成以砂粒为主,多数样点占比约为80%~90%。随着土壤年龄增加,容重值和pH减小,pH从8.54减小到5左右;土层厚度、土壤有机质（SOC）及总氮（TN）含量增加,这些土壤理化指标的快速变化表明冰川退缩区土壤发育迅速。适宜的温度、充足的降水以及快速的植被演替可能是退缩区土壤快速发育的原因。模糊数学法计算土壤质量的结果显示,除了0年样点,其余样点土壤质量指数（SQI）均大于0.4,说明退缩区土壤质量状况整体属于中等水平,土壤肥力状况较好。研究结果有助于揭示土壤矿物风化过程和土壤发育的影响因素,理解土壤发育机制。

     

金刚石与深部碳循环

深部碳循环是全球碳循环研究中不可或缺的部分。较之表层碳,人类对地球深部碳储库的储量、碳的迁移方式和交换量都缺乏清晰认识。作为来自地球深部的碳单质矿物,金刚石是研究深部碳循环的绝佳样品。近年来原位微区分析技术的突飞猛进为研究金刚石及深部碳循环提供了良好条件。文中对表层与深部碳交换、深部碳储库及金刚石矿物学性质进行了介绍,并通过金刚石及其包裹体的稳定同位素组成,探讨了金刚石的形成机制及含碳流体/熔体的性质与来源问题。     

北京市区冬季大气气溶胶空气动力学尺度谱分布的研究

本文讨论了北京市区冬季大气气溶胶空气动力学尺度的各种谱分布,发现平均粒子谱为单峰型,而平均表面积谱和平均质量谱则通常为三峰型。但是,表面积谱和质量谱随时间变化明显。 三峰型质量谱与国外给出的城市双峰型质量谱差别显著,揭示了我国目前城市气溶胶污染所具有的一种带普遍性的重要特性。     

Influence of Surfactants on Degradation of 1‐(2‐Chlorobenzoyl)‐3‐(4‐chlorophenyl) Urea by Nanoscale Zerovalent Iron

Nanoscale zerovalent iron (NZVI) has been proved to be effective in the degradation of environmental pollutants and exhibits advantages in the removal of 1‐(2‐chlorobenzoyl)‐3‐(4‐chlorophenyl) urea (CCU), an analog of diflubenzuron. This present study focused on the influence of surfactants in the degradation procedure with NZVI in order to provide a simple and rapid removal method for CCU. Triton X‐100, Tween 20, Tween 80, sodium dodecyl sulfonate (SDS), and cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB) were investigated under anaerobic conditions. The experimental results demonstrated that the degradation rate increased sharply with the presence of SD during the first 15 min, up to 99.97% with addition of 0.01 g L^?1 SDS, whereas the presence of Triton X‐100, Tween 80, and Tween 20 resulted in a slight enhancement of the degradation of CCU. The enhancement strength of them was in the order Tween 20, Triton X‐100, and Tween 80. However, addition of the cationic surfactant CTAB resulted in a significant inhibitive effect. In contrast, the mixed surfactants did not result in the expected performance, and the performance was lower than that using some certain single surfactant among the mixed surfactants.     

鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶系马家沟组四段构造- 岩相古地理新认识及勘探意义

米探1井取得天然气勘探突破表明鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶系马家沟组四段具有巨大勘探潜力,然而,对盆地奥陶纪马四期古构造格局和岩相古地理研究还存在争议,制约了下步天然气勘探进程。为此,基于地震、野外露头、钻井、岩芯、微观薄片和测井等基础资料,对马家沟组四段构造- 岩相古地理开展了系统研究,确定了盆地奥陶纪马四期古构造格局,并恢复出马家沟组四段岩相古地理,预测了有利勘探区。研究结果表明：① 鄂尔多斯盆地奥陶纪马四期发育“两陆三隆四坳”的古构造格局,其中两陆为伊盟古陆和阿拉善古陆,三隆分别为中央古隆起、中条古隆起和神木- 志丹低隆起,四坳为西南边缘坳陷、桃利庙坳陷、府谷坳陷和柳林坳陷;② 马四期为碳酸盐岩内缓坡和中缓坡沉积,其中内缓坡又发育白云岩坪、含云膏坪、微生物丘、灰泥丘、砂屑滩、丘滩间海和灰质潟湖等7类微相;③ 古构造格局控制马家沟组四段沉积分异,微生物丘、灰泥丘和砂屑滩等3类有利储集相主要沿中央古隆起和神木- 志丹低隆起等古地貌高部位分布。因此认为,神木—靖边地区是有利储层发育区,且处于岩性相变带,生储盖配置关系好,具有良好的成藏条件,是天然气勘探的有利靶向区。