共享社会经济路径在土地利用、能源与碳排放研究的应用

情景是气候变化研究的重要工具。为了科学支撑气候变化科学评估和研究,2010年政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出了共享社会经济路径(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs)。作为从社会经济变化视角构建的气候情景,SSPs促进了气候变化科学基础、影响、脆弱性、风险、适应和减缓等学科的综合研究。本文介绍了SSPs情景研发与应用过程;阐述了全球和中国的人口经济、土地利用、能源和碳排放的模拟和预估主要成果;探讨了全球和中国碳排放路径及其与“双碳”目标的关系;并展望了SSPs应用前景。     

全球越赤道气流的时空变化

本文首先通过850和200毫巴空间、时间剖面图讨论了全球越赤道气流的时空变化。在东半球夏季各月大气低层存在5条越赤道的偏南气流通道,冬季转为偏北气流,呈现了季节性的年变。在西半球,有3条偏南气流和2条偏北气流通道,它们都未呈现出季节性的年变。其次阐述了它们与环流系统的关联。索马里急流的建立与维持,看来与澳大利亚、西太平洋副高和西风的某些先期变化有关系。它们可能说明全球不同地区大气环流系统季节性变化过程存在一定的时间序列。      

龙门山小鱼洞断裂在汶川地震中的地表破裂及地质意义

在龙门山中段小鱼洞地区映秀－北川断裂和彭县－灌县断裂发生了同震位移,同时在该地区新出现了一条北西向的同震破裂带——小鱼洞断裂的破裂带,并分割了两条近于平行的北东向逆冲－走滑型的主断裂。汶川特大地震发生后重点对小鱼洞断裂的地表破裂开展了详细的野外地质填图,利用全站仪和GPS对地表破裂进行了精确的测量。初步调查的结果表明,小鱼洞断裂位于映秀－北川断裂与彭县－灌县断裂之间,走向近于北西向,延伸约15km,以脆性破裂为特征,穿过小鱼洞大桥,并切割了多种类型的地貌单元,使道路发生拱曲、破坏和桥梁垮塌或移位。单个破裂长度在几米到300m不等,其南西盘为上升盘,北东盘为下降盘,平均垂直位错为1.0m,平均水平位错为2.3m,垂直与水平位错量之比1 ∶1～1 ∶2,显示为逆冲分量小于或等于左旋走滑分量,并以左旋走滑作用为主。同时,研究表明小鱼洞断裂属于映秀－北川断裂与彭县－灌县断裂之间的捩断层,其主要特征包括： 1)是在汶川地震中由于龙门山逆冲体之间的差异逆冲运动过程中而形成的断裂; 2)其走向近于北西向,垂直于龙门山北东向的主干断裂,而平行于逆冲体的逆冲运动方向; 3)具有高角度断面的断层,以左旋走滑作用为主。     

三维地震资料波阻抗反演技术及其应用

利用高纵向分辨率的测井资料与连续观测的地震资料进行波阻抗反演,可以大大提高三维地震资料对地下地质情况的研究程度。以山西常村矿为例,介绍了波阻抗反演在目的层位追踪、薄层辨别、断点断距的确定、陷落柱的解释以及冲刷无煤带的圈定等方面的应用。实例表明波阻抗反演地震剖面比常规地震剖面具有明显的优势,特别是在薄层的分辨率能力上,波阻抗反演表现的尤为突出,如在该区波阻抗反演剖面上,不仅能够分辨15#煤层的三个分层,同时对6#、9#、12#薄煤层也有清晰的反映。     

Carboniferous ridge subduction in the Xingmeng Orogenic Belt: Constraints from geochronological,geochemical, and Sr-Nd-Hf isotopic analysis of strongly peraluminous granites and gabbro-diorites in the Xilinhot micro-continent

The Xingmeng Orogenic Belt evolved through a long-lived orogeny involving multiple episodes of subduction and accretion. However, there is a debate on its tectonic evolution during the Late Paleozoic. Here, we report geochemical, geochronological, and isotopic data from strongly peraluminous granites and gabbro-diorites from the Sunidzuoqi–Xilinhot region. Zircon U–Pb ages suggest that the intrusive rocks were emplaced during the Early Carboniferous (333–322 Ma). The granites exhibit geochemical characteristics similar to S-type granites, with high SiO₂ (72.34–76.53 wt.%), Al₂O₃ (12.45–14.65 wt.%), and A/CNK (1.07–1.16), but depleted Sr, Nb, and Ta contents. They exhibit positive ε_Nd(t) and ε_Hf(t) values (?0.3 to 2.8 and 2.7–5.7, respectively) and young Nd and Hf model ages (T_DM2(Nd)=853–1110 Ma and T_DM2(Hf)=975–1184 Ma), suggesting that they may be the partial melting products of heterogeneous sources with variable proportions of pelite, psammite, and metabasaltic rocks. The meta-gabbro-diorites from the Maihantaolegai pluton have low SiO₂ (47.06–53.49 wt.%) and K₂O (0.04–0.99 wt.%) contents, and demonstrate slight light rare earth element (REE) depletion in the chondrite-normalized REE diagrams. They have high zircon ε_Hf(t) values (14.41–17.34) and young Hf model ages (T_DM2(Hf)= 230–418 Ma), indicating a more depleted mantle source. The variations of the Sm/Yb and La/Sm ratios can thus be used to assess the melting degree of the mantle source from 5% to 20%, suggesting a quite shallow mantle melting zone. We propose that the petrogenesis and distribution of the strongly peraluminous granites and gabbro-diorites, as well as the tectonic architecture of the region, can be explained by a ridge subduction model. Based on these results, and previous studies, we suggest a southward ridge subduction model for the Sunidzuoqi–Xilinhot region.     

青藏高原水文模拟的现状及未来

介绍了青藏高原水文模拟的研究现状和发展趋势。水文模拟是研究水文过程的主要手段,可为流域水资源管理及防灾减灾提供理论和决策支持。国际上第一代水文模型为"集总式",第二代水文模型为"分布式",但它们大都以描述降水—产流的水分输移为主("水圈"),未仔细考虑陆—气水热交换中植被的调节作用("生物圈—大气圈")。近10年来,在气候变化的背景下,随着大气科学以及生态学的蓬勃发展,分布式水文模型开始描述生物圈—大气圈相互作用;通过改进陆—气间的水热交换过程以及植被的生理过程,实现了对流域水圈—生物圈—大气圈的综合模拟。然而,针对显著受冰冻圈过程影响的青藏高原,需要深入研究冰冻圈与其他圈层(水圈/生物圈/大气圈)的相互作用机理,并实现其在水文模拟中的参数化,以提升区域水资源和水灾害的预测能力。     

Surface-deformation monitoring in the permafrost regions over the Tibetan Plateau,using Sentinel-1 data

Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(D-In SAR) has been widely used to measure surface deformation over the Tibetan Plateau. However, the accuracy and applicability of the D-In SAR method are not well estimated due to the lack of in-situ validation. In this paper, we mapped the seasonal and long-term displacement of Tanggula(TGL) and Liangdaohe(LDH) permafrost regions with a stack of Sentinel-1 acquisitions using the Small Baseline Subset In SAR(SBAS-In SAR) method. In the TGL region, with its dry soils and sparse vegetation, the In SAR-derived surface-deformation trend was consistent with ground-based leveling results; long-term changes of the active layer showed a settlement rate of around 1 to 3 mm/a due to the melting of ground ice, indicating a degrading permafrost in this area. Around half of the deformation was picked up on monitoring, in contrast with in-situ measurements in LDH, implying that the D-In SAR method remarkably underestimated the surface-deformation. This phenomenon may be induced by the large soil-water content, high vegetation coverage, or a combination of these two factors in this region. This study demonstrates that surface deformation could be mapped accurately for a specific region with Sentinel-1 C-band data, such as in the TGL region.Moreover, although the D-In SAR technology provides an efficient solution for broad surface-deformation monitoring in permafrost regions, it shows a poor performance in the region with high soil-water content and dense vegetation coverage.     

New advances in the study of Alpine glaciations

The European Alps is the birthplace of glaciology and in particular Quaternary glaciology and for over one hundred years has been a model region for studying mountain glaciations. In this paper, we review the achievements from this region, which will benefit glaciological studies of the Tibetan Plateau, China. According to new evidences of glaciofluvial de- posits discovered in valleys and forelands of the Alps, researchers have progressed from an original four Pleistocene gla- ciations to seven glaciations： Biber, Donua, Gtinz, Haslach, Mindel, Riss and WOrm. The earliest one Biber possibly oc- curred between the Pliocene and Pleistocene, but the chronology before Riss is still in doubt. Recent years, Riss and Wtirm glaciations have been supported by a large numbers of cosmogenic exposure dating. In particular, cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating has been carried out for different moraine boulders in numerous valleys, which reveals a series of climatic change events, and they are comparable to post-glacial age records of northern Europe. The advancement of glaciological studies in the Alps is important in promoting glaciological research in the Tibetan Plateau.     

干旱区典型绿洲耕地扩张及其人文驱动研究——以新疆且末绿洲为例

近年来,在全国耕地面积持续减少的背景下,西北干旱区耕地呈扩张趋势,现有研究关注其自然因素驱动力,对人文因素驱动力,特别是灌溉设施和方式、政策、经济利益和市场导向等因素关注较少。选取干旱区典型绿洲——且末绿洲,采用最大似然法和人机交互式分类相结合的方法从1972,1990,2001,2011年影像中提取耕地信息,结合统计学方法分析且末绿洲耕地变化的时空趋势、耕地复种指数的动态变化;在充分考虑人口因素的前提下,增加灌溉设施和方式、政策、经济利益和市场导向等因素,探讨了绿洲耕地扩张的人文驱动力。研究结果表明:1970年以来,且末绿洲耕地面积时增时减,总体呈增长趋势;耕地复种指数波动上升;人口增长、灌溉设施和方式、政策、经济利益和市场等因素在不同阶段以不同方式影响着该绿洲耕地面积的扩张。政策、经济利益和市场因素是近10年绿洲耕地迅速扩张的主要驱动因素。