GRAPES_GFS全球中期预报系统的研发和业务化

该文回顾了中国气象局全球中期数值天气预报系统GRAPES_GFS的研发历程,重点介绍了近年来在GRAPES_GFS研发过程中的重要进展,概要阐述了这些进展对GRAPES_GFS业务:化的贡献。动力框架方面的改进主要包括位温垂直平流的算法、极区滤波方案、标量平流方案、垂直速度衰减（damping）算法、提高模式分辨率等,改善了模式框架的稳定性、计算精度以及质量守恒性。物理过程方面的改进主要包括RRTMG辐射方案、CoLM陆面过程方案、积云对流、边界层过程、双参数云物理方案,以及物理过程的调用计算等,全面提升了模式物理过程的预报能力。全球三维变分同化方面,研发了模式空间三维变分（3DVar）系统、资料质量控制和偏差订正技术、卫星资料同化方面的相关技术等。同时,对目前GRAPES_GFS2.0的预报能力进行了评估,总体来说,该系统各项预报指标全面超越GRAPES_GFS1.0,与T639相比等压面要素预报在对流层也有明显优势,降水、2 m温度等预报也优势明显。     

The Discovery of Phlogopite Exsolution Lamellae in Garnets of Eclogite Inclusions, Liaoning Province

In No. 50 kimberlite pipe of Fuxian County, Liaoning Province, an eclogite inclusion(nodule), which is extremely rare in kimberlites, was discovered and phlogopite exsolutionlamellae were found in garnets of the inclusion. Microscopic, TEM and energy spectral observa-tions and studies confirmed that these lamellae are phlogopite. They are colourless and acicularin section, generally 0.5-5μm in width and 10-100μm in length. Nevertheless, fine lamellae,0.05-0.1μm wide and 1-2μm long, are also well developed. Along [111] of the garnet, three setsof phlogopite lamellae show oriented arrangement approximately at angles of 60°-70°, indi-cating that these lamellae might be the product of exsolution from garnet as a result ofpressure-release when eclogite ascended from the relatively deep level to the relatively shallowlevel of the mantle. Tiny acicular exsolution minerals (or inclusions) are commonly found ingarnet and pyroxene in eclogite inclusions of kimberlites all over the world and it has been re-ported that the identified exsolution minerals include pyroxene and rutile. This is the first timethat phlogopite exsolution lamillae were found in eclogite inclusions in the world.     

准噶尔盆地西北缘侏罗系储层

准噶尔盆地西北缘侏罗系陆相碎屑岩储层的岩性差异较大,岩性对物性的控制作用明显。储层的孔隙类型多样,不同类型的孔隙在发育规模、丰度及有效性方面都存在显差异,次生溶蚀孔隙、原生粒间孔隙和残余粒间孔隙是最重要的有效孔隙类型。储层渗透率与孔隙度之间存在较好的半对数相关关系。通过设置一定的孔隙度和渗透率参数界线,对储层储集性能进行评价,将侏罗系储层的孔渗性能划分为5个级别,可与当前流行的砂岩储层孔渗性能分级相对应。通过对大量压汞参数样本的聚类分析,将储层的孔隙结构划分为4个类型。通过各类参数统计及曲线形态对比,对孔隙结构类型进行了定量结合定性的优劣评价。最后,结合孔渗性能级别、储集空间类型、孔隙结构类型、岩性等特征,对准噶尔盆地西北缘侏罗系储层进行了综合分类评价。     

柴达木盆地东部侏罗系煤系烃源岩生烃潜力评价及地球化学特征

对柴达木盆地东部地区侏罗系大煤沟剖面、绿草山剖面进行了露头取样,并利用Rock-Eval生油岩评价仪、色谱—质谱仪、稳定同位素质谱仪等实验分析测试技术对样品进行了地球化学特征分析。实验结果表明,样品有机碳含量变化从0.07%到56.8%,有机质类型以Ш型有机质为主,少数为型有机质,极少数为型有机质,灰黑色油页岩及黑色炭质页岩是侏罗系中的优质烃源岩。检测样品C29甾烷异构化参数C29αββ/(αββ ααα)、C29ααα20S/(20S 20R)分布范围分别为0.25~0.35、0.06~0.34,处于未熟—低熟状态。侏罗系水体环境较浅,多为滨浅湖与沼泽环境,具有煤系烃源岩特点,局部为水体比较咸化的半深湖—深湖环境。     

燕山地区中元古代常州沟组潜穴化石

在燕山地区中元古代常州沟组中发育有大量的潜穴化石，潜穴产于常州沟组中部的泥质粉砂岩中。潜穴呈个体较大的直管状，垂直层面保存。这是我国迄今为止发现的最古老的遗迹化石，表明在距今近1800Ma前就已出现古老的后生动物，这对于研究后生动物的起源及演化具有重要意义。     

Probability-consistent spectrum and code spectrum

IntroductionInChina,thecombinationofseismicdesigncodewithzoningmapofseismicintensityorgroundmotionparametersisusuallyadoptedtodeterminetheseismicfortificationcriterionforthegeneralindustryandcivilbuildings.Thepresentproceduresareasfollows.Accordingtothepro-jectlocation,thedesignbasicaccelerationofgroundmotionandthedesigncharacteristicperiodofresponsespectrumareobtainedfromthezoningmapofseismicgroundmotionparameters(GeneralAdministrationofQualitySupervision,InspectionandQuarantineofthePeople…     

Climate Warming and Water Management Adaptation for California

The ability of California's water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demographic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering optimization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation. While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate and population. More specifically, California's water supply system appears physically capable of adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adaptation would entail large changes in the operation of California's large groundwater storage capacity, significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies.     

周口店新发现距今11～1.9万年的洞穴堆积层的成因及年代学研究

本文对周口店新发现距今11～1.9万年的东岭子洞穴堆积物进行了成因研究,认为该套堆积物并非全属岩溶堆积物,其中也有风成黄土沉积。应用古地磁、热发光及铀系法等年代学方法测定,认为这套堆积为距今11～1.9万年间沉积,弥补了周口店地区近5万年的晚更新世洞穴地层空缺,是一个含有丰富地质事件的晚更新世洞穴地层剖面。     

四川岔河锡矿区富铟矿石的发现及其找矿意义

铟(In)是一种稀散元素,它极少呈独立矿物出现,而是以其他矿物,例如金属硫化物、金属氧化物等为载体。近年来,随着对铟的年需求量不断上升,铟的市场标价一路走高,今后的上涨空间仍然很大。作者通过岩石矿物学和地球化学研究,初步发现四川岔河锡多金属矿区的铟含量很高,最高可达186.5×10-6,因此,推测此地区有很大的找铟前景。通过对铟与其它成矿元素的相关分析,发现该地区的铟与Zn、Cu、Fe、Cd、Sn、Ga都有明显的正相关性,由此推测铟可能存在于它们的金属硫化物、氧化物和(或)锡的氧化物中,进一步的电子探针工作发现,铟主要赋存于闪锌矿中,闪锌矿中最高含量可达500×10-6。因此,初步推断岔河地区铟有很大的找矿前景,应该考虑在今后的地质找矿工作和采选冶过程中加以综合评价和综合利用。     

西北地区东部冰雹云的卫星光谱特征和遥感监测模型

根据气象台站的冰雹观测记录,针对冰雹灾害多发的西北地区东部,选取2001—2004年间14次NOAA卫星过境的AVHRR资料,共88个样本数,对冰雹云和其他云的光谱特征进行对比分析。结果表明,雹云的热红外亮度温度的变化基本在245K以下,中红外波段反射率相对较低,基本变化在0.4及以下范围,可见光和近红外波段反射率>0.6。冰雹产生的两个重要条件是高的云光学厚度和大的云粒子有效半径共同发生的区域;西北地区冰雹发生的云顶高度基本在4.5～7km之间。根据雹云的光谱特征,确定雹暴指数及其模型阈值>0.35的冰雹监测方法,多普勒雷达回波和气象站观测结果说明,雹暴指数等多参数结合判别冰雹云效果显著。