Seasonal Prediction of the Global Precipitation Annual Modes with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG

A right annual cycle is of critical importance for a model to improve its seasonal prediction skill. This work assesses the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） in retrospective prediction of the global precipitation annual modes for the 1980 2004 period. The annual modes are gauged by a three-parameter metrics： the long-term annual mean and two major modes of annual cycle （AC）, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. The results demonstrate that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction is basically able to capture the major patterns of the long-term annual mean as well as the first AC mode （the solstitial monsoon mode）. The GAMIL has deficiencies in reproducing the second AC mode （the equinoctial asymmetric mode）. The magnitude of the GAMIL prediction tends to be greater than the observed precipitation, especially in the sea areas including the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, and the western North Pacific （WNP）. These biases may be due to underestimation of the convective activity predicted in the tropics, especially over the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） and its neighboring areas. It is suggested that a more accurate parameterization of convection in the tropics, especially in the Maritime Continent, the WPWP and its neighboring areas, may be critical for reproducing the more realistic annual modes, since the enhancement of convective activity over the WPWP and its vicinity can induce suppressed convection over the WNP, the BOB, and the South Indian Ocean where the GAMIL produces falsely vigorous convections. More efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in monsoon seasons but also in transitional seasons when the second AC mode takes place. Selection of the one-tier or coupled atmosphere-ocean system may also reduce the systematic error of the GAMIL prediction. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL seasonal prediction skill.     

雷击地闪密度与雷暴日数的关系分析

根据美国卫星观测得到的我国各省区年平均总闪电资料并计算出各省区的年平均地闪密度(以下简称地闪密度);根据全国各省区220个站点的年平均雷暴日资料,按照<建筑物防雷设计规范>GB50057-94(2000年版)(以下简称<规范>)公式计算出全国各省区的地闪密度.比较两种方法得出的地闪密度,发现存在较大的差异,且不同区域差异变化很大.用单位雷暴日地闪密度概念,分析了我国各地单位雷暴日地闪密度的差异及其原因,指出单位雷暴日地闪密度能粗略反映与我国气候特征相适应的地闪密度的分布状况.进一步分析湖州市2007年人工观测和闪电定位仪观测的闪电资料,得到相同的结论.从而提出<规范>规定的地闪密度计算公式存在较大误差,应对其进行进一步的修订和完善.     

Relationship between East Asian Monsoon and Dust Weather Frequency over Beijing

The relationship between dust weather frequency (DWF), which denotes the number of days of dust weather events, over Beijing and the East Asian Monsoon (EAM) was studied using DWF data for Beijing during the period 1951--2006. Results show that, during this period, the blowing-dust weather frequency (BDWF), as well as the indices of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), all decreased considerably, with a t-test confidence level of 99%. The correlation coefficients between the chosen EAWM index and BDWF over Beijing in winter and the following spring were 0.34 and 0.33, respectively, with significance levels of 0.01 and 0.02, respectively. For the chosen EASM index and BDWF, these correlation coefficients were 0.51 and 0.45, respectively, with both at a confidence level exceeding 99.9%. With the linear trends removed, the values (in the same order as above) were 0.14, 0.14, -0.12, and -0.09, all not significant at the 95% confidence level. Clearly, the EAM relates mainly to DWF over long timescales. To a certain extent, the EAM might have some impact on DWF by affecting the associated surface air temperature and precipitation during the corresponding time period in sand-dust source regions at the interannual scale. A stronger (weaker) EAWM might advance (suppress) the occurrence of DWF, and the opposite for the EASM.     

Continuous Measurement of Number Concentrations and Elemental Composition of Aerosol Particles for a Dust Storm Event in Beijing

A continuous measurement of number size distributions and chemical composition of aerosol particles was conducted in Beijing in a dust storm event during 21-26 March 2001. The number concentration of coarse particles （ 〉2μm） increased more significantly than fine particles （ 〈2μm） during the dust storm due to dust weather, while the anthropogenic aerosols collected during the non-dust-storm period tended to be associated with fine particles. Elemental compositions were analyzed by using proton-induced X-ray emission （PIXE）. The results show that 20 elements in the dust storm were much higher than in the non-dust-storm period. The calculated soil dust concentration during the dust storm was, on average, 251.8μg m^-3, while it was only 52.1μg m^-3 on non-dust-storm days. The enrichment factors for Mg, A1, P, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, C1, Cu, Pb, and Zn show small variations between the dust storm and the non-dust-storm period, while those for Ca, Ni and Cr in the dust storm were much lower than those in the non-dust-storm period due to significant local emission sources. A high concentration and enrichment factor for S were observed during the dust storm, which implies that the dust particles were contaminated by aerosol particles from anthropogenic emissions during the long-range transport. A statistical analysis shows that the elemental composition of particles collected during the dust storm in Beijing were better correlated with those of desert soil colleted from desert regions in Inner Mongolia. Air mass back-trajectory analysis further confirmed that this dust storm event could be identified as streaks of dust plumes originating from Inner Mongolia.     

含水量对高含冰量冻结砂土屈服面的影响

以往关于冻土屈服特性的研究很少考虑含水量的影响,但实际工程中经常遇到的是变含水量情况,因此本文通过-5.0℃条件下高含冰量冻结砂土的一系列三轴压缩试验,系统地研究了含水量对屈服特性的影响,并且由此建立了带有含水量参数的偏应力-剪应变增量型关系式。试验结果表明：随含水量的变化,应力-应变曲线类型有明显变化,即在不同的含水量区间,含水量对硬化规律有不同的影响特性,因此为了使屈服函数的形式更加简单和提高拟合准确度,对于屈服函数的具体形式应该根据塑性剪应变（硬化参数）和含水量不同区间进行分别确定;当塑性剪应变较小时（0.00%~1.00%）,随含水量的增大,偏应力逐渐增加,而当塑性剪应变较大时（大于1.00%）,随含水量的增大,偏应力有一个先减小后增大的变化过程,并且42.0%可以作为含水量转折点;通过分段硬化原则建立的带有含水量参数的屈服函数与偏应力-剪应变的增量型关系式的模拟值与试验点基本相吻合,这说明得到的屈服函数与偏应力-剪应变的增量型关系式可以用于不同含水量条件下屈服面和偏应力-剪应变曲线的预测。     

Ordovician Granitoids and Silurian Mafic Dikes in the Western Kunlun Orogen, Northwest China: Implications for Evolution of the Proto-Tethys

The western Kunlun orogen in the northwest Tibet Plateau is related to subduction and collision of Proto-and Paleo-Tethys from early Paleozoic to early Mesozoic. This paper presents new LA-ICPMS zircon U-Pb ages and Lu-Hf isotopes, whole-rock major and trace elements, and Sr–Nd isotopes of two Ordovician granitoid plutons(466–455 Ma) and their Silurian mafic dikes(～436 Ma) in the western Kunlun orogen. These granitoids show peraluminous high-K calcalkaline characteristics, with(⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i value of 0.7129–0.7224, ε_Nd(t) values of -9.3 to -7.0 and zircon ε_Hf(t) values of -17.3 to -0.2, indicating that they were formed by partial melting of ancient lower-crust(metaigneous rocks mixed with metasedimentary rocks) with some mantle materials in response to subduction of the Proto-Tethyan Ocean and following collision. The Silurian mafic dikes were considered to have been derived from a low degree of partial melting of primary mafic magma. These mafic dikes show initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of 0.7101–0.7152 and ε_Nd(t) values of -3.8 to -3.4 and zircon ε_Hf(t) values of -8.8 to -4.9, indicating that they were derived from enriched mantle in response to post-collisional slab break-off. Combined with regional geology, our new data provide valuable insight into late evolution of the Proto-Tethys.     

黔西北福来厂铅锌矿床构造成生发展及其控矿作用

福来厂铅锌矿床位于黔西北垭都—蟒硐铅锌成矿带西南部,夹持于天桥与猫猫厂两个铅锌矿床之间,矿床（体）分布严格受构造控制。运用矿田地质力学理论和方法,对福来厂铅锌矿区进行大比例尺构造剖面精测和典型的控矿构造力学性质鉴定以及不同方向断裂、褶皱构造筛分,研究认为自印支晚期—喜马拉雅期以来该区主要经历了三期构造活动,其主压应力方向分别经历了北西向→北东向→近东西向的转变过程,认为矿床的导矿、配矿、容矿构造分别为矿区棋盘格式构造、北东向断裂（倾向北西）与北西西向断裂及其下盘背斜翼部的层间断裂带,此外,矿区存在北西向（倾向北东）破矿构造,明显切割、错移矿体,控制着矿体的空间定位。综合上述,文章在总结了构造控矿规律的基础上,建立了该矿床成矿构造体系,为找矿勘查和矿床成因研究奠定了基础。      

西藏冈底斯南缘汤白矿区早侏罗世含矿斑岩锆石U-Pb定年及其地质意义

汤白矿区位于西藏冈底斯斑岩铜矿带西段南缘,南侧紧邻日喀则弧前盆地。矿区由地表探矿工程控制3条赋存于早侏罗世角闪石英闪长斑岩中的主矿体(1号、2号和3号),在野外地质调查的基础上,对角闪石英闪长斑岩进行LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年和岩石地球化学测试。研究结果表明:(1)含矿斑岩的成岩年龄为183.3±1.2Ma,形成于早侏罗世;(2)含矿斑岩地球化学特征与大洋岛弧背景下的安山质岩石的地球化学性质一致,表明汤白矿区含矿斑岩形成于大洋岛弧环境;(3)西藏冈底斯斑岩铜矿带具有寻找俯冲期斑岩型矿床的巨大潜力,今后应加强该带俯冲期斑岩型矿床的勘查评价工作,特别是早—中侏罗世斑岩的成矿潜力评价。     

城乡过渡带空间演进与空间交互强度分析

采用NPP/VIIRS夜间灯光数据提取广州市城乡过渡带边界,利用基于sDNA模型修正的引力模型测算2012—2019年广州市城乡过渡带的空间交互强度,分析其空间演进特征与社会经济发展的关系。研究表明：1）2012—2019年广州市城乡过渡带总体呈扩大趋势,以北偏东方向发展为主,破碎区块逐渐演变为连续区域;2）广州市城乡过渡带之间的空间交互网络结构呈现“多方向化”趋势,从最初的西南侧单线网络结构逐步发育成多方向闭合网络联结结构,目前演变为南北两支、东西向的强空间交互态势,以白云区为代表的北部区域和以番禺区为代表的南部区域是广州市城乡过渡带的重要战略节点地域;3）广州市城乡过渡带社会经济优势度呈现出由内向外的3个空间层级结构,并由城市核心区辐射带动,向北、东北与东南3个方向推动发展为城乡过渡带;4）各城乡过渡带的发展速度不均衡现象仍较明显,广州市应结合本区域优势产业和自然资源,走联合与互补发展并存的道路,重视城乡过渡带区域发展引擎,增强其与周边地区联系的潜力。