基于综合监控和负载调控的中国天气网网站弹性架构

中国天气网是中国气象局面向公众提供气象信息服务的核心门户。为适应其日益增长的访问量,并保障网站可用性及访问体验等要求,网站已建立包含可用性、用户体验、网站访问、网络、安全、系统和应用等多方面的综合监控系统。实现了可根据体验、可用性、成本、安全等多方面因素,可面向多种具体业务场景的灵活多样的负载调控手段。基于监控和调控,构建了经内容本地加速的多源站弹性架构。在访问体验、可用性、带宽容量、安全、成本、业务特性需求等多方面提升了网站能力。     

A nowcasting technique based on application of the particle filter blending algorithm

To improve the accuracy of nowcasting, a new extrapolation technique called particle filter blending was configured in this study and applied to experimental nowcasting. Radar echo extrapolation was performed by using the radar mosaic at an altitude of 2.5 km obtained from the radar images of 12 S-band radars in Guangdong Province, China. The first bilateral filter was applied in the quality control of the radar data; an optical flow method based on the Lucas–Kanade algorithm and the Harris corner detection algorithm were used to track radar echoes and retrieve the echo motion vectors; then, the motion vectors were blended with the particle filter blending algorithm to estimate the optimal motion vector of the true echo motions; finally, semi-Lagrangian extrapolation was used for radar echo extrapolation based on the obtained motion vector field. A comparative study of the extrapolated forecasts of four precipitation events in 2016 in Guangdong was conducted. The results indicate that the particle filter blending algorithm could realistically reproduce the spatial pattern, echo intensity, and echo location at 30- and 60-min forecast lead times. The forecasts agreed well with observations, and the results were of operational significance. Quantitative evaluation of the forecasts indicates that the particle filter blending algorithm performed better than the cross-correlation method and the optical flow method. Therefore, the particle filter blending method is proved to be superior to the traditional forecasting methods and it can be used to enhance the ability of nowcasting in operational weather forecasts.     

GRADIENT MEASUREMENTS OF METHANE FLUX IN LIN''''AN RICE PADDIES

From July to September of 1990,CH_4 flux measurements were made in Lin'an rice paddies using gradient profiletechniques.Some characteristics of the turbulence structure under the stable conditions have been verified in the surfacelayer according to the in situ measurements.The semi-empirical turbulent parameters β_m,β_h and β_c and their changeswith the stability parameter Ri are given.Observed results indicate that CH_4 flux in the rice-paddy is mainly decided bythe methnogenesis and the process of CH4 transport from internal soils to the atmosphere,and that the CH_4 verticaltransfer is depressed in the stable surface layer.The CH_4 flux shows that its obvious diurnal changes,and the meanCH_4 flux are higher in nighttime and lower in daytime,and the peaks appear at about 2000 BST at night and 0300 BSTin the early morning,respectively.The mean value of CH_4 flux is about 4.18±2.3 mg/m~2 h.     

CMPA降水资料在中国地区不同地形下的精度评价研究

以2001—2010年中国地面自动站降水资料为基准,对中国大陆范围内CMPA(CMPA_Daily)降水资料进行精度评价研究,并与CMORPH1.0(CPC MORPHing technique gauge-satellite)、TRMM3B43V7(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B43)降水资料精度进行对比,并进一步结合高程、坡度、坡向、坡向修正因子分析地形因子对数据质量的影响并探讨不同地貌类型下数据的精度。结果显示:CMPA在年、月尺度上均能较好地反映降水的多寡,与站点实测数据具有较高的相关性,误差波动较为平稳,数据质量及稳定性优于CMORPH与TRMM;从时间序列曲线显示CMPA的精度呈现较为明显的季节性差异,均方根误差夏季高于冬季,相关系数、百分比偏差、平均相对误差冬季高于夏季,总体而言CMPA夏季的误差高于冬季,由于夏季降水的基数大而导致了百分比偏差以及平均相对误差较低;分析地形的影响表明,高程、坡度对数据质量的影响大于坡向与坡向修正因子;在复杂地形下,高海拔与高坡度地区CMPA精度均有所降低,但降水资料的精度仍然优于CMORPH与TRMM。     

用非色散红外气体分析仪进行大气CO2本底浓度的测量

按WMO关于开展全球CO2监测的要求，在对引进设备进行改进的情况下，建立了我国开展大气CO2本底浓度连续测量的红外气体分析测量系统及有关方法。系统的测量精度优于0.1ppm，完全满足全球本底测量的要求，并具有较好的国际可比性。在此基础上，首次取得了我国大陆上空大气CO2的本底浓度资料。     

WRF模式在南京数值天气预报中的应用

利用最新版本的WRFV3.1进行了南京地区的高分辨率的数值天气预报,对预报结果进行了细致的评估,结果表明：模式很好的预报出了温度、相对湿度及风场的逐日变化特征。0~24 h预报的平均温度和实况基本一致,预报的击中率为0.73;预报的平均相对湿度较实况偏高了0.3%,击中率为0.74;模式预报的风场跟实况较为吻合,对风速增大、减小的趋势预报非常准确。另外, 模式对层云降水预报较好,能很好的把握了降水的强度及空间变化,但对积云强降水预报,结果不理想,降水范围、强度均偏小,持续时间偏短。     

基于VAD技术的迭代法在实测多普勒速度缺测区域的填补研究

多普勒天气雷达径向速度场缺测区域的存在是影响速度二次产品算法精确度的重要因素,在实际风场为线性分布的假设条件下,文中详细介绍了一种基于VAD技术的迭代填补技术.在合理考虑迭代约束条件的情况下,应用实测多普勒速度数据,根据缺测区域类型随机制造非连续累积10°-180°缺口的缺测区域和连续累积10°-180°缺口的缺测区域...     

Notes邮件系统管理维护及典型故障分析

从LotusDomino服务器系统的监控、维护、服务器系统重要文件的备份操作及系统优化等方面介绍了Domino服务器的管理维护方法：分析了Domino服务器和notes客户端的典型故障,给出了具体的故障解决思路及方法。     

Effects of climate variability on the distribution and fishing conditions of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western Indian Ocean

Variations in the abundance and distribution of pelagic tuna populations have been associated with large-scale climate indices such as the Southern Oscillation Index in the Pacific Ocean and the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Atlantic Ocean. Similarly to the Pacific and Atlantic, variability in the distribution and catch rates of tuna species have also been observed in association with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a basin-scale pattern of sea surface and subsurface temperatures that affect climate in the Indian Ocean. The environmental processes associated with the IOD that drive variability in tuna populations, however, are largely unexplored. To better understand these processes, we investigated longline catch rates of yellowfin tuna and their distributions in the western Indian Ocean in relation to IOD events, sea surface water temperatures (SST) and estimates of net primary productivity (NPP). Catch per unit effort (CPUE) was observed to be negatively correlated to the IOD with a periodicity centred around 4 years. During positive IOD events, SSTs were relatively higher, NPP was lower, CPUE decreased and catch distributions were restricted to the northern and western margins of the western Indian Ocean. During negative IOD events, lower SSTs and higher NPP were associated with increasing CPUE, particularly in the Arabian Sea and seas surrounding Madagascar, and catches expanded into central regions of the western Indian Ocean. These findings provide preliminary insights into some of the key environmental features driving the distribution of yellowfin tuna in the western Indian Ocean and associated variability in fisheries catches.     

无旋转倾角的NAV/CNAV型GEO广播星历拟合

目前北斗GEO的星历拟合算法和用户卫星位置算法均引进了人为设置的5°倾角旋转,此外,少数星历参数还有超限现象。取消GEO的旋转倾角和抑制参数超限能够统一北斗混合星座的用户算法。基于第一类无奇点根数,分析了无旋转倾角的GEO两步法星历参数拟合算法。讨论了GEO的参数超限原因,提出采用固定1至2个超限参数取值的缩减参数拟合法。北斗GEO卫星在非地影期和地影期的拟合试验表明,拟合成功率和拟合精度能够保证,拟合用户距离误差(URE)的平均值优于3mm;缩减参数拟合法能够抑制特定时段下的参数超限问题,但是拟合URE放大到2cm。