1980-2017年中国碳强度关键影响因子变化特征

The Chinese government ratified the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016.Accordingly,China aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product(carbon intensity)to 60%–65%of 2005 levels by 2030.However,since numerous factors influence carbon intensity in China,it is critical to assess their relative importance to determine the most important factors.As traditional methods are inadequate for identifying key factors from a range of factors acting in concert,machine learning was applied in this study.Specifically,random forest algorithm,which is based on decision tree theory,was employed because it is insensitive to multicollinearity,is robust to missing and unbalanced data,and provides reasonable predictive results.We identified the key factors affecting carbon intensity in China using random forest algorithm and analyzed the evolution in the key factors from 1980 to 2017.The dominant factors affecting carbon intensity in China from 1980 to 1991 included the scale and proportion of energy-intensive industry,the proportion of fossil fuel-based energy,and technological progress.The Chinese economy developed rapidly between 1992 and 2007;during this time,the effects of the proportion of service industry,price of fossil fuel,and traditional residential consumption on carbon intensity increased.Subsequently,the Chinese economy entered a period of structural adjustment after the 2008 global financial crisis;during this period,reductions in emissions and the availability of new energy types began to have effects on carbon intensity,and the importance of residential consumption increased.The results suggest that optimizing the energy and industrial structures,promoting technological advancement,increasing green consumption,and reducing emissions are keys to decreasing carbon intensity within China in the future.These approaches will help achieve the goal of reducing carbon intensity to 60%–65%of the 2005 level by 2030.     

银川市景观生态风险评价与生态安全格局优化构建

银川市生态保护与高质量发展已成为黄河流域可持续发展的重要组成部分,亟需优化区域生态安全格局。以银川市为研究区,综合生态风险评价模型和最小累积阻力模型,分析了银川市景观生态风险的时空分异特征,构建了生态安全格局并提出了生态安全保护策略。结果表明：（1） 银川市景观生态风险整体呈中北部高、南部低的空间分布特征,2000、2010年和2020年的景观生态风险指数平均值分别为0.2155、0.2145和0.2130,生态风险整体呈下降趋势,生态风险等级总体由高等级向低等级转移。（2） 共识别优化银川市生态廊道22条,生态节点52个,生态廊道累计长度约511.23 km,大致呈“北西—东南”方向网状分布,北部稀疏、南部密集。6条关键廊道贯穿南北,沿贺兰山国家级自然保护区—黄河—白芨滩国家级自然保护区一带分布,形成了“三纵”的空间格局分布特征。（3） 银川市优化后的生态安全格局由819.56 km²的生态源地、22条生态廊道和52个生态节点构成,并提出了针对生态源地、廊道和节点的生态安全保护策略,以期为银川市景观生态风险评价和生态安全水平的提升提供理论参考和依据。     

Multiple-Element Matching Reservoir Formation and Quantitative Prediction of Favorable Areas in Superimposed Basins

<正>Superimposed basins in West China have experienced multi-stage tectonic events and multicycle hydrocarbon reservoir formation,and complex hydrocarbon reservoirs have been discovered widely in basins of this kind.Most of the complex hydrocarbon reservoirs are characterized by relocation,scale re-construction,component variation and phase state transformation,and their distributions are very difficult to predict.Research shows that regional caprock(C),high-quality sedimentary facies(Deposits,D),paleohighs(Mountain,M) and source rock(S) are four geologic elements contributing to complex hydrocarbon reservoir formation and distribution of western superimposed basins.Longitudinal sequential combinations of the four elements control the strata of hydrocarbon reservoir formation,and planar superimpositions and combinations control the range of hydrocarbon reservoir and their simultaneous joint effects in geohistory determine the time of hydrocarbon reservoir formation.Multiple-element matching reservoir formation presents a basic mode of reservoir formation in superimposed basins,and we recommend it is expressed as T-CDMS. Based on the multiple-element matching reservoir formation mode,a comprehensive reservoir formation index(Tcdms) is developed in this paper to characterize reservoir formation conditions, and a method is presented to predict reservoir formation range and probability of occurrence in superimposed basins.Through application of new theory,methods and technology,the favorable reservoir formation range and probability of occurrence in the Ordovician target zone in Tarim Basin in four different reservoir formation periods are predicted.Results show that central Tarim,Yinmaili and Lunnan are the three most favorable regions where Ordovician oil and gas fields may have formed.The coincidence of prediction results with currently discovered hydrocarbon reservoirs reaches 97%.This reflects the effectiveness and reliability of the new theory,methods and technology.     

青海省乌拉斯太地区早石炭世花岗质岩体地球化学特征及其地质意义

早石炭世花岗质岩体主要沿昆中断裂带两侧断续分布,多呈岩床、岩株状产出,根据岩性特征可划分为3类,即浅肉红色斑状二长花岗岩、肉红色正长花岗岩、肉红色中细粒碱长花岗岩.主量元素特征显示花岗质岩体全碱含量较高,显示出壳源的特点,为过铝质偏铝质花岗岩,属Ⅰ型花岗岩.稀土元素特征显示岩石属轻稀土富集型,重稀土相对平坦,轻重稀土分...     

Study on Ensemble-Based Forecast of Extremely Heavy Rainfalls in China: Experiments for July 2011 Cases

According to the Anderson-Darling principle, a method for forecast of extremely heavy rainfall (abbreviated as extreme rainfall/precipitation) was developed based on the ensemble forecast data of the T213 global ensemble prediction system (EPS) of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA). Using the T213 forecast precipitation data during 2007-2010 and the observed rainfall data in June-August of 2001-2010, characteristics of the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of the observed and the T213 EPS forecast precipitation were analyzed. Accordingly, in the light of the continuous differences of the CDFs between model climate and EPS forecasts, a mathematical model of Extreme Precipitation Forecast Index (EPFI) was established and applied to forecast experiments of several extreme rainfall events in China during 17-31 July 2011. The results show that the EPFI has taken advantage of the tail information of the model climatic CDF and provided agreeable forecasts of extreme rainfalls. The EPFI based on the T213 EPS is useful for issuing early warnings of extreme rainfalls 3-7 days in advance. With extension of the forecast lead time, the EPFI becomes less skillful. The results also demonstrate that the rationality of the model climate CDF was of vital importance to the skill of EPFI.     

琼东南盆地陵南低凸起深水钻井岩心的稀土元素地球化学特征及其意义

A geochemical analysis of rare-earth elements(REEs) in 97 samples collected from the core of deep-water Well LS-A located at the Lingnan Low Uplift Area of the Qiongdongnan Basin is conducted, with the purpose of revealing the changes of sedimentary source and environment in the study region since Oligocene and evaluating the response of geochemical characteristics of REEs to the tectonic evolution. In the core samples, both ∑REE and ∑LREE(LREE is short for light-group REEs) fluctuate in a relatively wide range, while ∑HREE(HREE is short for heavy-group REEs) maintains a relatively stable level. With the stratigraphic chronology becoming newer, both ∑REE and ∑LREE show a gradually rising trend overall. The ∑REE of the core is relatively high from the bottom of Yacheng Formation(at a well depth of 4 207 m) to the top of Ledong Formation, and the REEs show partitioning characteristics of the enrichment of LREE, the stable content of HREE, and the negative anomaly of Eu to varying degrees. Overall the geochemical characteristics of REEs are relatively approximate to those of China's neritic sediments and loess, with significant "continental orientation". The ∑REE of the core is relatively low in the lower part of Yacheng Formation(at a well depth of 4 207–4 330 m), as shown by the REEs partitioning characteristics of the depletion of LREE, the relative enrichment of HREE, and the positive anomaly of Eu; the geochemical characteristics of REEs are approximate to those of oceanic crust and basalt overall, indicating that the provenance is primarily composed of volcanic eruption matters. As shown by the analyses based on sequence stratigraphy and mineralogy, the provenance in study region in the early Oligocene mainly resulted from the volcanic materials of the peripheral uplift areas; the continental margin materials from the north contributed only insignificantly; the provenance developed to a certain extent in the late Oligocene. Since the Miocene, the provenance has ceaselessly expanded from proximal to distal realm, embodying a characteristic of multi-source sedimentation. In the core strata with 31.5, 28.4, 25.5, 23, and 16 Ma from today, the geochemical parameters of REEs and Th/Sc ratio have significant saltation, embodying the tectonic movement events in the evolution of the Qiongdongnan Basin. In the tectonic evolution history of the South China Sea, the South China Sea Movement(34–25 Ma BP, early expansion of the South China Sea), Baiyun Movement(23 Ma BP), late expansion movement(23.5–16.5 Ma BP), expansion-settlement transition, and other important events are all clearly recorded by the geochemical characteristics of REEs in the core.     

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东海黑潮周边中尺度涡的分布、运动规律以及生成机制

为了探究东海黑潮周边涡旋分布、形成机理及运动规律,基于法国国家空间研究中心(CNES)卫星海洋学存档数据中心(AVISO)的中尺度涡旋数据集展开了研究。首先,统计了近27年东海黑潮周边的涡旋分布,发现在黑潮弯曲海域产生了650个涡旋,在黑潮中段海域产生了271个涡旋,其中直径100~150 km之间的涡旋数量最多,涡旋振幅主要集中在2~6 cm。其次,分析了东海黑潮的运动路径和涡运动过程,结果表明,黑潮气旋式弯曲海域内侧易产生气旋涡,且移动路径较长,如台湾东北海域黑潮流轴气旋式弯曲处产生的涡旋,其平均位移达到了87.6 km;当反气旋式弯曲海域内侧产生反气旋涡时,涡旋往往做徘徊运动。黑潮中段海域的涡旋呈现出气旋涡在黑潮主轴西侧、反气旋涡在黑潮主轴东侧的极性对称分布特征,两类涡都沿黑潮主轴向东北方向移动。最后,结合再分析的流场、海面高度数据,讨论了涡旋运动规律和生成机制。黑潮弯曲处涡旋的生成与黑潮流体边界层分离有关,奄美大岛南部到冲绳岛西侧的黑潮逆流对黑潮中段海域涡的极性对称分布起到了关键作用,涡旋在运动过程中通常经历生长、成熟和衰变三个阶段。     

Fine-scale simulation of spatial population distribution by coupling GA–ABM and big data: A case study of Dongguan,China

Capturing spatial population distribution can offer useful information for urban planning to promote reasonable population distribution and allocate urban resource. Agent-based model (ABM) based on the modeling idea of “bottom-up” can offer the ability to simulate the complex individual behaviors that generate spatial population distribution. Previous ABMs were unable to be extended for simulation of spatial population distribution at a fine scale due to the shortage of fine characterization of the urban environment and the calibration of agents' behavior. This study filled these gaps by proposing a genetic algorithm-ABM (GA–ABM) for fine-scale simulation of spatial population distribution in a manufacturing metropolis. In this model, the employment and residential choice behaviors of agents were defined by the labor economic theory and discrete selection model. Multisource geospatial big data such as enterprise points-of-interest big data and building footprints data were used to finely characterize the labor market and urban environment to reflect the impact of agents' employment choices on their residential decision. Furthermore, the grid-scale population investigation big data were combined with the GA to calibrate the agents' residential decision behaviors. The proposed model was used in Dongguan, the typical manufacturing metropolis in China. As a comparison, the expert-experience-based method-ABM (EEBM–ABM) was also conducted by using the same data set. Through the comparison of the results produced by these two models, it was demonstrated that the model coefficient calibrated by GA could effectively reflect the agents' residential decisions. The calibrated GA–ABM is more capable than EEBM–ABM in simulating spatial population distribution in a manufacturing metropolis. Hence, the proposed model can be used to simulate spatial population distribution in a manufacturing metropolis which helps the urban planner to conduct scientific urban planning.     

Regional spatial pattern of deep soil water content and its influencing factors

Abstract

Plant root systems can utilize soil water to depths of 10 m or more. Spatial pattern data of deep soil water content (SWC) at the regional scale are scarce due to the labour and time constraints of field measurements. We measured gravimetric deep SWC (DSWC) at depths of 200, 300, 400, 500, 600, 800 and 1000 cm at 382 sites across the Loess Plateau, China. The coefficient of variation was high for soil water content (SWC) in the horizontal direction (48%), but was relatively small for SWC in the vertical direction (9%). Semivariogram ranges for DSWC at different depths were between 198 and 609 km. Kriged distribution maps indicated that deep soil layers became moister along northwest to southeast transects. Multiple statistical analyses related DSWC to plant characteristics (e.g. plant age explained >21% of the variability), geographical location and altitude (8–13%), soil texture and infiltrability, evaporation zone and eco-hydrological processes (P < 0.05). Regional land management decisions can be based on our DSWC distribution data to determine land uses and plant species appropriate for the soil type and location that would maintain a stable soil water balance. Maintaining infiltrability is of great importance in this and other water-scarce regions of the world.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor J. Simunek

Citation Wang, Y.Q., Shao, M.A., Liu, Z.P. and Warrington, D.N., 2012. Regional spatial pattern of deep soil water content and its influencing factors. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 265–281.