中国碳强度关键影响因子的机器学习识别及其演进

碳强度影响因子数量众多,通过在众多因子中评估其重要性以识别出关键影响因子进而解析碳强度关键因子的变化规律,是中国2030年碳强度能否实现比2005年下降60%~65%目标的科学基础。传统的回归分析方法对于评估众多因子的重要性存在多重共线性等问题,而机器学习处理海量数据则具有较好的稳健性等优点。本文从能源结构、产业结构、技术进步和居民消费等方面选取了56个中国碳强度影响因子指标,采用随机森林算法基于信息熵评估了1980-2014年逐年各项因子的重要性,通过指标数量与信息熵的对应关系统一筛选出每年重要性最大的前22个指标作为相应年度关键影响因子,最终依据关键影响因子的变化趋势划分了3个阶段作了演进分析。结果发现：1980-1991年,碳强度的关键因子主要以高耗能产业规模及占比、化石能源占比和技术进步为主;1992-2007年,中国经济进入快车道增长时期,服务业占比和化石能源价格对碳强度的影响作用开始显现,居民传统消费的影响作用在增大;2008年全球金融危机后,中国进入经济结构深化调整时期,节能减排力度大大增强,新能源占比和居民新兴消费的影响作用迅速显现。为实现2030年碳强度下降60%~65%目标,优化能源结构和产业结构,促进技术进步,提倡绿色消费,强化政策调控是未来需要采取的主要措施。     

一种顾及精细层级的室内拓扑模型

针对室内精细化管理的需求,提出了一种顾及精细层级的室内拓扑模型。该模型首先将室内空间构件分为“主体对象-连通对象-虚拟对象”三种类型;接着以主体对象为基准,在垂直方向上又将室内空间划分为“楼栋-楼层-房间-设备”4个级别,并抽象出虚拟对象实现对对象的二次划分;然后针对同级别对象和跨级别对象建立了拓扑组织规则;最后结合三维引擎Cesium.js对模型进行了管理可视化验证。结果表明,该数据模型能够有效地满足精细场景的数据管理需求。     

北斗三号组网卫星数据质量分析及单系统定轨精度初步评估

选取2018-01-23起10 d内16个iGMAS测站观测数据,对北斗三号卫星的观测数据质量及BDS单系统精密定轨精度进行评估。初步结果表明,老信号B1I、B3I北斗三号卫星的信噪比略强于二号卫星,噪声与多路径基本相当,均在0.1 m量级,新卫星不存在星内多路径偏差。新信号B1C/L1/E1频点GPS信噪比最强,Galileo和BDS卫星相当,B2a/L5/E5a和B2b/E5b各系统基本相当;噪声及多路径方面,B1C/L1/E1频点GPS优于BDS、Galileo卫星0.1 m量级,B2a/L5/E5a和B2b/E5b各系统基本相当,均在0.1 m量级,新信号中北斗三号卫星星内多路径偏差基本消失。单系统精密定轨试验中,分别进行有/无GEO卫星策略、太阳光压模型ECOM 五/九参数策略的比较,并使用卫星激光测距数据进行独立检核。初步结果表明,有GEO卫星、ECOM五参数光压模型的定轨精度最好,C19号卫星7个重叠弧段的平均定轨精度在沿迹向、法向、径向的精度分别为32 cm、16 cm、8 cm,与试验卫星的定轨精度基本相当。     

偏振激光雷达探测大气—水体光学参数廓线

激光雷达在上层水体垂直廓线的遥感中展现出巨大优势。本文研制了一套高垂直分辨率的实时探测偏振激光雷达,提出了一种基于偏振激光雷达回波信号的反演算法,采用Fernald理论和多次散射原理反演非均匀大气—水体的衰减和退偏光学产品,以高效稳定地处理偏振激光雷达实验数据。展示了一个中国内陆水体激光雷达探测实例,观测到了两次气溶胶积聚现象和一次水体浑浊现象。对实验数据的分析表明,退偏比主要由前向多次散射和后向单次散射产生的退偏两部分组成。当多次散射强度较大时,退偏比的变化主要取决于多次前向散射退偏;反之,则主要依赖于单次后向散射退偏。     

工程海域波浪特征分析方法比较

通过选取两个典型海外工程项目案例,分别采用波浪特征参数法和波浪谱法对工程海域波浪条件进行分析,并比较这两种方法在作业波浪条件、波浪特征认知程度上的差异,以及对海港水域平面布置产生的影响。对于波浪能量在频域及方向上存在多峰谱情况的海域,基于全谱的波浪特征参数系列数据有可能出现以下两种情况:1)主峰波向掩盖次峰波向;2)主峰波向错配次峰周期。对于上述两种情况,若仅采用波浪特征参数法对工程海域作业波浪条件进行分析,并指导海港水域平面布置,则极可能忽略或误判个别敏感波向、关键频域段的部分波浪能量,从而误导设计,为后续项目运营埋下隐患。对于以上情形,宜采用波浪谱法深入分析工程海域波浪能量在整个频域及各个方向上的详细分布及构成,并对关键波向、关键频域段的波浪能量进行量化,评估其对海港水域平面布置的影响,从而最大程度地避免由于波浪输入条件误判带来的风险。     

Three-dimensional scour below offshore pipelines in steady currents

This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on three-dimensional scour below offshore pipelines subject to steady currents. The major emphasis of the investigation is on the scour propagation velocity along the pipeline after the scour initiation. Physical experiments were conducted to quantify the effects of various parameters on scour propagation velocity along the pipeline in a water flume of 4 m wide, 2.5 m deep and 50 m long. Local scour depths directly below the model pipeline were measured using specifically developed conductivity scour probes. Effects of various parameters such as pipeline embedment depth, incoming flow Shields parameter and flow incident angle (relative to the pipeline) on scour propagation velocity along the pipeline were investigated. It was found that scour propagation velocity generally increases with the increase of Shields parameter but decreases with the increase of the pipeline embedment depth. A general predictive formula for scour propagation velocity is proposed and validated against the experimental results.     

Classification of Complex Reservoirs in Superimposed Basins of Western China

<正>Many of the sedimentary basins in western China were formed through the superposition and compounding of at least two previously developed sedimentary basins and in general they can be termed as complex superimposed basins.The distinct differences between these basins and monotype basins are their discontinuous stratigraphic sedimentation,stratigraphic structure and stratigraphic stress-strain action over geological history.Based on the correlation of chronological age on structural sections,superimposed basins can be divided into five types in this study:(1) continuous sedimentation type superimposed basins,(2) middle and late stratigraphic superimposed basins,(3) early and late stratigraphic superimposed basins,(4) early and middle stratigraphic superimposed basins,and(5) long-term exposed superimposed basins.Multiple source-reservoir-caprock assemblages have developed in such basins.In addition,multi-stage hydrocarbon generation and expulsion,multiple sources,polycyclic hydrocarbon accumulation and multiple-type hydrocarbon reservoirs adjustment,reformation and destruction have occurred in these basins.The complex reservoirs that have been discovered widely in the superimposed basins to date have remarkably different geologic features from primary reservoirs,and the root causes of this are folding,denudation and the fracture effect caused by multiphase tectonic events in the superimposed basins as well as associated seepage,diffusion,spilling,oxidation,degradation and cracking.Based on their genesis characteristics,complex reservoirs are divided into five categories:(1) primary reservoirs,(2) trap adjustment type reservoirs,(3) component variant reservoirs,(4) phase conversion type reservoirs and (5) scale-reformed reservoirs.