长江中下游旱涝中期预报方法及其业务应用

介绍了双层多因子综合相似的长江中下游旱涝中期预报模型。该模型引入了具有明确动力学和热力学意义的地转西风动量经向输送和经向温度梯度诊断量，同时强调了西太平洋副热带高压对长江中下游夏季降水的关键作用，并考虑了对流层中、低层500hPa高度和850hPa温度的大尺度环流背景场。与过去业务应用的单层相似预报模型相比较，不仅物理意义和天气学含义明确，而且更符合对具有复杂动力和热力机制的降水预报的考虑。5年的预报试验和业务应用结果表明，该方法对长江中下游地区旱涝的中期趋势预报有较好的预报能力。     

大别山沙村中生代A型花岗岩和基性岩的源区演化关系

A型花岗岩的成因虽存在不同的认识模式,但对大别山沙村A型花岗岩的岩石化学和地球化学研究结果表明,其物质源自大陆岩石圈地幔的部分熔融,含有古老地壳信息。结合被侵入基性岩的地球化学和年代学资料,推测大别造山带中生代岩石圈地幔的地球化学性质与下扬子地幔相似。花岗岩中锆石SHRIMP法U-Pb年龄为119.0±3.2Ma,说明其岩浆侵位于早白垩世,与邻近的基性岩侵位时间相近但稍晚。在三叠纪因大陆俯冲碰撞增厚的岩石圈在早白垩世被拉张减薄,含有古老地壳成分的扬子陆下岩石圈地幔及其上覆下地壳发生部分熔融,形成了不同成分的碰撞后岩浆岩。其中部分基性岩浆分异结晶成为辉长岩,而A型花岗岩可能是同一地幔源区物质小比例部分熔融后分异结晶的产物。     

湖北省土壤侵蚀景观空间异质性及驱动因子分析

地域分异是地球表层大小不等、内部具有一定相似性地段之间的相互分化以及由此产生的差异。为了研究不同区位土壤侵蚀问题，从土壤生态景观及系统论出发，运用地质学、地理学、景观生态学、环境学的理论和研究方法，研究湖北省土壤侵蚀景观空间格局及其驱动因子，使土壤侵蚀问题研究提高到一个新的水平。湖北省土壤侵蚀景观具有南北分带、东西分区，为一不对称的断块一环组合，土壤流呈现向长江、江汉盆地中心轴带辐聚、单流向特点。景观空间异质性形成的首要驱动因子是大地构造背景，以房县一襄樊一广济断裂带为界，南北两侧地壳物质组成和构造发展史存在较明显的差异，现代气候带、降雨量、温热程度及土地利用等差异，造成了湖北省区域土壤地理、土壤生态的分异，形成湖北省土壤生态带、区具有南北分带，东西分区的宏观格局；其次大兴安岭一武陵山深部构造陡变带两侧新构造运动强度差异、大别造山带构造强烈隆升，导致土壤侵蚀强度的西强东弱、南北强中间弱的态势；成土母岩差异性决定了土壤可蚀性的多变；空间上“土壤侵蚀内城区”分布在湖北省的周边地区，经济贫困、管理落后，这一地区的经济水平与水土流失间形成“自反馈作用”，这一现象在我国水土保持、生态建设工作中应该引起重视。     

定点连续形变长周期频段信息研究

研究了定点连续形变长周期频段信息和块体构造活动的关系。研究结果表明，在川滇菱形块体内，定点连续形变观测获得的长周期频段信息中的长期趋势变化除去仪器零漂等局部干扰外，基本上都和块体运动方向或者块体边界主干断裂活动方式相一致，表明在定点连续形变长周期频段信息中，也存在有与地震孕育有关的地壳形变信息。对其在预报上的作用做了初步研究。     

2-D crustal Poisson's ratio from seismic travel time inversion in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region

Based on the inversion method of 2D velocity structure and interface, the crustal velocity structures of P-wave and S-wave along the profile L1 are determined simultaneously with deep seismic sounding data in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region, and then its Poisson's ratio is obtained. Calculated results show that this technique overcomes some defects of traditional forward calculation method, and it is also very effective to determine Poisson's ratio distribution of deep seismic sounding profile, especially useful for study on volcanic magma and crustal fault zone. Study result indicates that there is an abnormally high Poisson's ratio body that is about 30 km wide and 12 km high in the low velocity region under Tianchi crater. Its value of Poisson's ratio is 8% higher than that of surrounding medium and it should be the magma chamber formed from melted rock with high temperature. There is a high Poisson's ratio zone ranging from magma chamber to the top of crust, which may be the uprise passage of hot substance. The lower part with high Poisson's ratio, which stretches downward to Moho, is possibly the extrusion way of hot substance from the uppermost mantle. The conclusions above are consistent with the study results of both tomographic determination of 3D crustal structure and magnetotelluric survey in this region.     

2-D crustal Poisson’s ratio from seismic travel time inversion in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region

Based on the inversion method of 2D velocity structure and interface, the crustal velocity structures of P-wave and S-wave along the profile L ₁ are determined simultaneously with deep seismic sounding data in Changbaishan Tianchi volcanic region, and then its Poisson’s ratio is obtained. Calculated results show that this technique overcomes some defects of traditional forward calculation method, and it is also very effective to determine Poisson’s ratio distribution of deep seismic sounding profile, especially useful for study on volcanic magma and crustal fault zone. Study result indicates that there is an abnormally high Poisson’s ratio body that is about 30 km wide and 12 km high in the low velocity region under Tianchi crater. Its value of Poisson’s ratio is 8% higher than that of surrounding medium and it should be the magma chamber formed from melted rock with high temperature. There is a high Poisson’s ratio zone ranging from magma chamber to the top of crust, which may be the uprise passage of hot substance. The lower part with high Poisson’s ratio, which stretches downward to Moho, is possibly the extrusion way of hot substance from the uppermost mantle. The conclusions above are consistent with the study results of both tomographic determination of 3D crustal structure and magnetotelluric survey in this region. Foundation item: Key Project from China Earthquake Administration and the Project (95-11-02-01) from Ministry of Science and Technology (2001DIA10003). Contribution No. RCEG200401, Geophysical Exploration Center, China Earthquake Administration.     

基于GIS的地下水水源地补给潜力探讨

本文提出了一种基于GIS的补给潜力分析方法。在实例研究中,通过对地形、地表物质组成、包气带岩性、植被覆盖等因子建立的专题图层的叠加分析,确定了地下水的补给潜力分区,结合研究区含水层分布特征,综合确定了水源地的靶区和开采潜力区。研究表明,利用GIS确定研究区降雨入渗补给量是一种高效、直观、可行的方法。     

Earth's rotation variations: a wavelet analysis

Historical to up‐to‐date data of the minute variations in the solid Earth's rotation are subjected to a comprehensive time‐frequency wavelet analysis. The length‐of‐day for the period 1962–2012 confirms the presence of a prominent, robust 6‐year periodicity and reveals an anomalously strong 18.6‐year tidal oscillation as well as a ~13‐year quasi‐periodic signal. The polar‐motion excitation for the period 1900–2012 validates the existence of the ~26‐year Markowitz wobble and shows an ~8‐year quasi‐periodic signal, but no appreciable 18.6‐year periodicity. Although it is known that exchanges of angular momentum with the geophysical fluids are responsible for the rotational variations of the solid Earth, the exact physical mechanisms involved on interannual‐to‐decadal timescales are still far from understood.     

Analysis of Jiangsu Tidal Flats Reclamation from 1974 to 2012 Using Remote Sensing

Jiangsu has the most abundant tidal flat resources among China's coastal provinces.To ease the conflict between the growing population and shrinking usable land and to promote regional sustainable development,large-scale coastal reclamation development activities have been performed in Jiangsu Province since 1949.The present study has integrated multi-source remote sensing images during 1974 to 2012 by using a Multi-point Fast Marching Method(MFMM) to extract the Jiangsu coastal reclamation areas for different time periods.The temporal and spatial patterns of the extent and elevation of the reclamation areas were analysed in order to determine the unused potential for future reclamation.It will provide information necessary to support the development and construction of tidal flats in Jiangsu.Results show that:(1) the reclaimed tidal flats along the Jiangsu coast cover more than 19.86×104 hm2,of which 13.97×104 hm2 is located in Yancheng,4.84×104 hm2 in Nantong,and 1.05×104 hm2 in Lianyungang;(2) the average elevation of the reclaimed Jiangsu tidal flats has gradually decreased over the last 40 years,while those in Dongtai and Rudong have showed particularly accelerated decrease since the 1990s;and(3) in 2012,very few unused tidal flats two meters above the sea level are left along the Jiangsu coast,and mainly concentrated in Yancheng.As there are still reserving some coastal land resources between 0-2 m,providing us with a potential for future development.All of these findings may be useful for researchers and local authorities for the development and utilization of tidal flat resources in Jiangsu.     

Daily salinity fluctuation alleviates salt stress on seedlings of the mangrove Bruguiera gymnorhiza

Salinity is a vital factor that regulates leaf photosynthesis and growth of mangroves, and it frequently undergoes large seasonal and daily fluctuations creating a range of environments – oligohaline to hyperhaline. Here, we examined the hypotheses that mangroves benefit opportunistically from low salinity resulting from daily fluctuations and as such, mangroves under daily fluctuating salinity (FS) grow better than those under constant salinity (CS) conditions. We compared growth, salt accumulation, gas exchange, and chlorophyll fluorescence of leaves of mangrove Bruguiera gymnorhiza seedlings growing in freshwater (FW), CS (15 practical salinity units, PSU), and daily FS (0–30 PSU, average of 4.8 PSU) conditions. The traits of FS-treated leaves were measured in seedlings under 15 PSU. FS-treated seedlings had greater leaf biomass than those in other treatment groups. Moreover, leaf photosynthetic rate, capacity to regulate photoelectron uptake/transfer, and leaf succulence were significantly higher in FS than in CS treatment. However, leaf water-use efficiency showed the opposite trend. In addition to higher concentrations of Na⁺ and Cl⁻, FS-treated leaves accumulated more Ca²⁺ and K⁺. We concluded that daily FS can enhance water absorption, photosynthesis, and growth of leaves, as well as alter plant biomass allocation patterns, thereby positively affecting B. gymnorhiza. Mangroves that experience daily FS may increase their adaptability by reducing salt build-up and water deficits when their roots are temporally subjected to low salinity or FW and by absorbing sufficient amounts of Na⁺ and Cl⁻ for osmotic adjustment when their roots are subsequently exposed to saline water.