The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Delineation of spatial redox zones using discriminant analysis and geochemical modelling in arsenic‐affected alluvial aquifers

This study characterized the redox conditions in arsenic‐affected groundwater aquifers of the Lanyang plain, Taiwan. Discriminant analysis was adopted to delineate three redox zones (oxidative, transitional and reductive zones) in different aquifers and yielded 92·3% correctness on groundwater quality data. Arsenic is mainly distributed in the reductive zone, and arsenic distribution in the shallow aquifer is mainly affected by surface activities. According to PHREEQC modelling results, possible mechanisms for arsenic release to groundwater in Lanyang plain are explored. Arsenic released to groundwater in the oxidative zone (zone 1) is primarily caused by the oxidations of arsenic‐bearing pyrite minerals, and arsenate is the predominant species. While the reductive dissolution of Fe‐oxides are responsible for the high arsenic concentration found in the transitional and reductive zones (zones 2 and 3), arsenite is the predominant species. The reduction potential of groundwater rises as the depths and zones increase. Some sulphates may be reduced to form sulphide ions, which then react with arsenic to form arseno‐sulphide deposits (such as realgar, orpiment) and then slightly lower groundwater arsenic concentrations. A conceptual diagram which summarized the possible release processes of arsenic in different redox zones along groundwater flow in Lanyang plain is postulated. Arsenic‐bearing pyrite and arsenopyrite (FeAsS) are oxidized as they are exposed to the infiltrated oxygenated rainwater, releasing soluble arsenate Fe(II) and SO₄^2? into zone 1. The dissolution of arsenic‐rich Fe‐oxides due to the onset of reducing conditions in zones 2 and 3 is responsible for the mobility of arsenic and likely to be the primary mechanism of arsenic release to groundwater in the Lanyang plain Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combined use of spot samples and continuous integrated sampling in a study of storm runoff from a lowland catchment in the south of England

We have used two different sampling techniques to study the geochemical response of a small lowland rural catchment to episodic storm runoff. The first method involves traditional daily spot sampling and has been used to develop a standard end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) of the relative contributions of ground water flow and surface runoff to the total stream flow. The second method utilizes a continuous sampling device, powered by an osmotic pump, to produce an integrated 24‐h sample of the stream flow. When combined with the EMMA results from the spot samples, analyses of the integrated samples reveal the presence of a third component that makes a significant contribution to the dissolved NO₃, Ca and K export from the catchment during the rising limb of the hydrographic profile of a storm event following a prolonged dry period. The storm occurred in the middle of the night, so that the response of the stream chemistry was not captured by the daily samples. We hypothesize that this third component is derived from the flushing of stored soil water that contains the geochemical signature of decaying vegetation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A systematic approach to the input determination for neural network rainfall–runoff models

Input determination has a great influence on the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) rainfall–runoff models. To improve the performance of ANN models, a systematic approach to the input determination for ANN models is proposed. In the proposed approach, the irrelevant inputs are removed. Then an adequate ANN model, which only includes highly relevant inputs, is constructed. Unlike the trial‐and‐error procedure, the proposed approach is more systematic and avoids unnecessary trials. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, an application to actual typhoon events is presented. The results show that the proposed ANN model, which is constructed by the proposed approach, has advantages over those obtained by the trial‐and‐error procedure. The proposed ANN model has a simpler architecture, needs less training time, and performs better. The proposed ANN model is recommended as an alternative to existing rainfall–runoff ANN models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new solution for a partially penetrating constant‐rate pumping well with a finite‐thickness skin

A mathematical model describing the constant pumping is developed for a partially penetrating well in a heterogeneous aquifer system. The Laplace‐domain solution for the model is derived by applying the Laplace transforms with respect to time and the finite Fourier cosine transforms with respect to vertical co‐ordinates. This solution is used to produce the curves of dimensionless drawdown versus dimensionless time to investigate the influences of the patch zone and well partial penetration on the drawdown distributions. The results show that the dimensionless drawdown depends on the hydraulic properties of the patch and formation zones. The effect of a partially penetrating well on the drawdown with a negative patch zone is larger than that with a positive patch zone. For a single‐zone aquifer case, neglecting the effect of a well radius will give significant error in estimating dimensionless drawdown, especially when dimensionless distance is small. The dimensionless drawdown curves for cases with and without considering the well radius approach the Hantush equation (Advances in Hydroscience. Academic Press: New York, 1964) at large time and/or large distance away from a test well. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Orbital calibration of the Early Kimmeridgian (southeastern France): implications for geochronology and sequence stratigraphy

Classic stratigraphic methods rarely provide high‐resolution correlations between intrabasinal sedimentary sequences, which are important to understand the origin of sedimentation process and its environmental change. In this study, we investigate high‐resolution cyclostratigraphic correlation from magnetic susceptibility in two Early Kimmeridgian pelagic marl‐limestone successions, at La Méouge and Châteauneuf‐d'Oze, southeastern France. Spectral analysis reveals the complete suite of orbital frequencies (precession, obliquity, and eccentricity) with the marl‐limestone couplets being primarily precession‐driven. Frequencies detected by the spectral analysis are similar between the sections, but their relative amplitudes are somewhat different, linked to the palaeoenvironmental position and the completeness of the sections. High‐resolution correlation reveals two significant hiatuses at Châteauneuf‐d’Oze. Early Kimmeridgian Platynota, Hypselocyclum, and Divisum ammonite zones were orbitally calibrated for an ultra‐high resolution assessment of geological time. Finally, strong 405‐kyr eccentricity cycles are recorded as third‐order depositional sequences.     

Target selection and accessibility for rendezvous with a Near-Earth asteroid mission

Mission to asteroids and comets has been the hot spot of deep space exploration in the new century. The choice of a suitable target, which involves both scientific value and technical feasibility, becomes a difficult task to accomplish due to limited energy and technology. The aim of this paper is to provide an approach to selecting a target and evaluating accessibility for rendezvous with a Near-Earth Asteroid mission, taking into account scientific value and engineering feasibility. Firstly, according to the orbital characteristics and physical properties of Near-Earth asteroids, we make a summary of some of the most frequent factors influencing the target selection of scientific significance. When selecting the target for a space mission, these factors can be regarded as the scientific motivations. Then in order to avoid the possibility that some high priority targets for science would be discarded due to requiring too high an energy budget by using a classical direct transfer strategy, we calculate the transfer trajectory for rendezvous with candidates by using the planetary swingby technique and the global optimal two-impulse method. Finally, through a comparison between the scientific relevance of each possible target and the corresponding estimate of energy needed for rendezvous missions, the ranking of some candidates is identified.