Climate Suitability for Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios

Climate is one factor that determines the potential range of malaria. As such, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission was based on the MARA/ARMA model of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using 16 projections of climate in 2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission, while the lowveld and areas with low precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed can be used within or across other African countries.     

Long-term changes (1980–2003) in total ozone time series over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes

Long-term changes in total ozone time series for Arosa, Belsk, Boulder and Sapporo stations are examined. For each station we analyze time series of the following statistical characteristics of the distribution of daily ozone data: seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum of total daily ozone values for all seasons. The iterative statistical model is proposed to estimate trends and long-term changes in the statistical distribution of the daily total ozone data. The trends are calculated for the period 1980–2003. We observe lessening of negative trends in the seasonal means as compared to those calculated by WMO for 1980–2000. We discuss a possibility of a change of the distribution shape of ozone daily data using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and comparing trend values in the seasonal mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum time series for the selected stations and seasons. The distribution shift toward lower values without a change in the distribution shape is suggested with the following exceptions: the spreading of the distribution toward lower values for Belsk during winter and no decisive result for Sapporo and Boulder in summer.     

震后快速钻探:历史、现状与未来

大地震发生后立即在断层带上进行钻探可以帮助我们获取更多的地震信息,尤其是可获得决定断层动态破裂的摩擦水平和强度,观测断层的愈合过程及可能触发余震的应力变化,并可获取控制破裂过程的重要的物理和化学属性。在2008年11月由国际大陆科学钻探项目（ICDP）和南加州地震中心（SCEC）联合在日本东京举办的为期3天的“震后快速钻探：历史、现状与未来”研讨会上,     

拟合水工设计反应谱的人工地震波的生成与Huang变换校正

根据非平稳输入下建立的功率谱与均值反应谱之间的关系,合成基于水工设计反应谱的人工地震波,并对其幅值进行修正,降低了高频区误差作用.为了解决加速度时程积分后的速度、位移时程的零线漂移现象,利用Huang变换得到加速度时程的固有模态函数,这种最低频率固有模态函数分量通常情况下代表原始信号的趋势或均值;再对去掉均值后的加速度时程进行积分,得到的速度、位移时程不存在零线漂移问题.     

Evaluation of methods of spatial interpolation for monthly rainfall data over the state of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Five deterministic methods of spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall were compared over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The methods were the inverse distance weight (IDW), nearest neighbor (NRN), triangulation with linear interpolation (TLI), natural neighbor (NN), and spline tension (SPT). A set of 110 weather stations was used to test the methods. The selection of stations had two criteria: time series longer than 20 years and period of data from 1960 to 2009. The methods were evaluated using cross-validation, linear regression between values observed and interpolated, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (r ²), coefficient of variation (CV, %), and the Willmott index of agreement (d). The results from different methods are influenced by the meteorological systems and their seasonality, as well as by the interaction with the topography. The methods presented higher precision (r ²) and accuracy (d, RMSE) during the summer and transition to autumn, in comparison with the winter or spring months. The SPT had the highest precision and accuracy in relation to other methods, in addition to having a good representation of the spatial patterns expected for rainfall over the complex terrain of the state and its high spatial variability.     

农牧交错带气候变化对土地利用的影响及对策——以内蒙古伊金霍洛旗为例

文章讨论了农牧交错带典型区域的气候变化特点,并运用GIS技术分析了区域土地利用变化。在此基础上,分析了气候变化对土地利用结构的影响,并提出了应对策略。这些对策将促进农牧交错带社会经济增长和生态环境的改善,对实现区域的可持续发展具有重要意义。     

华北及其邻区块体转动模式和动力来源

块体的转动是地壳中重要的构造运动形式。根据地质、地球物理和地震活动性等资料，可将华北及其邻区划分为３个亚板块，华北亚板块可进一步细分为多个级块体，这些不同级别的块体或多或少都显示出一定的刚体特性。根据地质构造、地震和古地磁测量等资料，详细地论细地论述了不同级块体的转动问题，即华北及其邻区的黑龙江、华北和华南等３个近东西向亚板块自老第三纪以来相对于新疆地区顺时针转动了１．６°～３．５°；华北亚板块内     

红壤丘陵区农业开发中的生态环境效应及其调控

文章以江西余江县为例。通过实验研究，历史资料对比分析及邻近参照等方法。研究红壤区农业开发中的生态环境效应。农业开发引起的微观环境效应在于改变土壤水分及其运动状况，加速土壤物质迁移及降低土壤肥力质量；区域性效应是植被减少，农业面源污染，水土流失扩大及气候异常；全球性影响除区域集聚效应外，则是农业活动中产生的温室气体对全球气候的影响等，采取的调控对策主要是：保持合理开发，适当减轻土地压力，优化农业开发模式，更新农业耕作技术。强化环境整治与生态建设。     

生态系统服务社会价值与生态价值的权衡与协同关系——以普达措国家公园为例

以香格里拉普达措国家公园为研究区,借助SolVES模型和InVEST模型,分别度量其社会价值（美学价值、文化价值、游憩价值）和生态价值（生境质量、碳储量、水源供给）的空间特征,并运用双变量空间自相关分析对二者空间权衡与协同关系进行研究。研究表明：① 社会价值的高值区呈“多核心,多条状”的空间格局,社会价值指数高达8.6（该指数介于1~10）,且距水体的距离越近对社会价值的贡献越大（贡献度为45.9%）;② 生态价值良好及优的空间范围占园区面积的1/2（49.91%）,主要位于原始森林保存良好的碧塔海片区和尼汝东北部扎诺一带;③ 社会价值与生态价值之间存在显著的空间依赖性,其中社会价值低,生态价值高的区域是园区最主要的空间聚集特征。该研究可为生态系统服务的可持续管理决策提供科学依据,以及有助于完善基于生态系统服务的社会?生态系统分析理论框架。