郯庐断裂带(安徽段)及邻区的动力学分析与区域构造演化

依据区域构造层次划分,采用构造筛分法,层层深入,层层筛分,确定发生于各个不同时代地层/岩层内的断裂活动的同期及叠加的应力场特征。综合所有的同期应力场特征及辅以叠加的应力场特征来验证,从而确定了一个连续的、完整的断裂活动的应力场演化序列;结合区域构造变形特征分析,阐明郯庐断裂带(安徽段)的构造演化。应力场分析显示:晚三叠-早侏罗世应力场为北北西—南南东或近南北向挤压,属古特提斯构造域,断裂发生同造山走滑;早白垩世早期,应力场为北西—南东向挤压,断裂发生左行走滑运动,中国东部处于西环太平洋构造域;早白垩世晚期—古新世(始新世),区域发生北西—南东向伸展作用,断裂处于伸展断陷作用阶段;新生代,受区域上近东西向的挤压作用影响,断裂发生挤压逆冲兼右行走滑作用。     

改进的灰色预测模型在地面沉降预测中的应用

在地面沉降这一复杂系统中,既含有已知的又古有未知的或非确定的信息,可以作为一个灰色系统来研究.本文针对地面沉降的下沉曲线非线性特征,提出用一种基于残差灰色预测模型对地面沉降量时间序列进行研究.结果表明,通过改进后的灰色预测模型,预测精度得到了提高,在沉降量比较大和水准点比较稀少的地区,利用此模型预测地面沉降可减少地面沉降监测经费,并能实时提供地面沉降预警信息.     

中国北方地区石炭纪岩相古地理

中国北方地区包括西北地区、华北地区和东北地区。该地区石炭系划分为上、下统,在西北地区、东北地区石炭系发育完整,华北地区普遍缺失下石炭统。87个标准剖面和529个辅助剖面的岩相古地理研究表明：早石炭世中国北方地区主要存在佳木斯古陆、额尔古纳古陆、中朝古陆、东塔里木─敦煌─中祁连─阿拉善古陆、陇西古陆、准噶尔─吐哈古陆、阿勒泰古陆等;从东至西主要发育松辽海盆、辽东海湾、北山海盆、祁连海、柴达木台地、宗务隆山海槽、塔里木台地、西昆仑海盆、南天山海盆、北天山─准噶尔海盆等海相沉积。晚石炭世海侵范围扩大,佳木斯古陆、额尔古纳古陆仍然存在,中朝古陆已明显缩小至其北部地区,东塔里木-敦煌-阿拉善古陆范围缩小,陇西古陆向西延伸扩大,北准噶尔─阿勒泰连为一体形成古陆;发育松辽海盆、华北海、祁连海、柴达木台地、宗务隆山海槽、塔里木海盆、南准噶尔-博格达山海盆等海相沉积。     

青藏高原东北缘强震前兆特征研究——流动重力方法

通过整理和解剖青藏高原东北缘地震重力观测资料,分析研究了青藏高原东北缘重力场时空变化及其与地震活动的关系,研究了强震孕育发生过程重力异常特征及震后异常效应。     

潜在地震灾害预测和评价神经网络系统及其若干问题

结合人工神经网络自身的特性和地震灾害预测研究的特点,本文应用神经网络模型,建立了潜在地震灾害预测和评价系统。针对网络模型参数设置、数据归一化、中间层神经元最优数目以及泛化分类评价指标等若干实际问题给出了实际可行的解决方案。通过大样本数据对网络的训练,形成了有识别和记忆功能的非线性预测和评价系统。对网络的测试和检验,论证了该系统在预测潜在地震灾害上的可行性和有效性。同时,从测试精度出发,探讨了这种预测网络存在的不足,并给出了相应的改进建议,为开展进一步的研究工作提供了参考。     

The conservation patterns of grassland ecosystem in response to the forage-livestock balance in North China

Being a key ecological security barrier and production base for grassland animal husbandry in China,the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure in North China directly affects grassland degradation and restoration,thereby impacting grassland ecosystem services.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in grassland vegetation coverage,forage supply,and the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure from 2000 to 2015 in North China.We then discuss the spatial pattern of grassland ecological conservation under the impacts of grassland degradation and restoration,and livestock-carrying pressure.Over the last 16 years,the total grassland area in North China decreased by about 16,000 km2,with vegetation coverage degraded by 6.7％ of the grasslands but significantly restored by another 5.4％ of grasslands.The provisioning of forage by natural grassland mainly increased over time,with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.3 kg/ha,but livestock-carrying pressure also increased continuously.The livestock-carrying pressure index without any supplementary feeding reached as high as 3.8.Apart from the potential livestock-carrying capacity in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Tibetan Plateau,most regions in North China are currently overloaded.Considering the actual supplementary feeding during the cold season,the livestock-carrying pressure index is about 3.1,with the livestock-carrying pressure mitigated in central and eastern Inner Mongolia.Assuming full supplementary feeding in the cold season,livestock-carrying pressure index will fall to 1.9,with the livestock-carrying pressure alleviated significantly in Inner Mongolia and on the Tibetan Plateau.Finally,we propose different conservation and development strategies to balance grassland ecological conservation and animal husbandry production in different regions of protected areas,pastoral areas,farming-pastoral ecotone,and farming areas,according to the grassland ecological protection patterns.     

Spatial variation and driving mechanism of soil organic carbon components in the alluvial/sedimentary zone of the Yellow River

Alluviation and sedimentation of the Yellow River are important factors influencing the surface soil structure and organic carbon content in its lower reaches. Selecting Kaifeng and Zhoukou as typical cases of the Yellow River flooding area, the field survey, soil sample collection, laboratory experiment and Geographic Information System(GIS) spatial analysis methods were applied to study the spatial distribution characteristics and change mechanism of organic carbon components at different soil depths. The results revealed that the soil total organic carbon(TOC), active organic carbon(AOC) and nonactive organic carbon(NOC) contents ranged from 0.05–30.03 g/kg, 0.01–8.86 g/kg and 0.02–23.36 g/kg, respectively. The TOC, AOC and NOC contents in the surface soil layer were obviously higher than those in the lower soil layer, and the sequence of the content and change range within a single layer was TOCNOCAOC. Geostatistical analysis indicated that the TOC, AOC and NOC contents were commonly influenced by structural and random factors, and the influence magnitudes of these two factors were similar. The overall spatial trends of TOC, AOC and NOC remained relatively consistent from the 0–20 cm layer to the 20–100 cm layer, and the transition between high-and low-value areas was obvious, while the spatial variance was high. The AOC and NOC contents and spatial distribution better reflected TOC spatial variation and carbon accumulation areas. The distribution and depth of the sediment, agricultural land-use type, cropping system, fertilization method, tillage process and cultivation history were the main factors impacting the spatial variation in the soil organic carbon(SOC) components. Therefore, increasing the organic matter content, straw return, applying organic manure, adding exogenous particulate matter and conservation tillage are effective measures to improve the soil quality and attain sustainable agricultural development in the alluvial/sedimentary zone of the Yellow River.     

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New patterns of urban development in China

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发挥矿产资源优势加快丹徒经济发展

丹徒县位于苏南宁镇丘陵地区,矿产资源丰富,是我县的"四大优势" 之一.在实行经济体制、经济增长方式2个根本性转变和调整经济结构及产业、产品结构的过程中,在我县制定"十五"计划和15年规划中,如何发挥我县矿产资源优势,调整和规划我县矿业经济结构,加快矿业经济的发展,从而加快全县经济的发展,这是我们十分关注的问题.本文试图就这个问题谈些看法和意见.