IAP PSSCA 两组预测试验的评估及比较Ⅰ.降水部分

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所研制的短期气候距平数值预测系统（ＩＡＰ ＰＳＳＣＡ）,采用两种版本的大气环流模式：ＡＧＣＭ１．１和ＡＧＣＭ１．２,分别以２月１１～１９日的９天大气观测值为初始场,以给定海温边界场,对１９８０～１９９４年的１５年的降水异常进行了两组集合后报试验。对试验结果进行定量评估表明：ＩＡＰ ＰＳＳＣＡ对降水异常具有一定的预测能力,特别是在中国东部受东亚季风及海温异常影响的地区,ＩＡ     

IAP PSSCA 两组预测试验的评估及比较 I.降水部分

利用中国科学院大气物理研究所研制的短期气候距平数值预测系统（IAP PSSCA）,　　种版本的大气环流模式：AGCM 1.1和AGCM 1.2,分别以2月11～19日的9天大气观测值为初始场,以给定海温为边界场,对1980～1994年的15年的降水异常进行了两组集合后报试验。对试验结果进行定量评估表明：IAP PSSCA对降水异常具有一定的预测能力,特别是在中国东部受东亚季风及海温异常影响的地区,IAP PSSCA具有较高的预报技巧,其中以东南区域（包括江淮流域和华南地区）最高,尤其是对有洪涝灾害的降水异常年,距平相关系数在0.50左右,接近可供业务使用的要求,说明模式能够抓住在东亚季风区存在的某种物理机制,从而提高了这一地区的预报技巧;另外,两个大气环流模式相比,改进了地表反照率的AGCM 1.2的15年集合平均预测技巧略高于AGCM 1.1,特别是在华北地区,预测效果有明显提高,这表明改进地表反照率从而改进了模式的气候平均态的模拟,能提高气候模式的预测能力,说明较好的陆面过程引入模式对短期气候预测是有益的。     

无人机三维航迹规划改进方法

在地形起伏的复杂环境下进行遥感观测任务需要进行三维航迹规划以适应多变的自然环境,而且在规划航迹时需要考虑减少飞行时间和能量消耗以提高作业效率。本文提出了一种曲面趋平化算法（CSFA）,首先采用准均匀B样条曲面拟合算法对CSFA算法处理后的目标区域DEM进行插值,构建区域的自然环境地形模型;然后为了减少时间和能量的消耗,采用点边式宽度算法计算最优飞行方向,获得最少转弯次数;最后通过摄影测量中的重叠度约束和区域环境地形模型计算三维航带和曝光点。试验通过在不同的航高下建立约束进行三维航迹规划模拟仿真,试验结果表明,本文提出的方法能够缩短航带长度,降低作业能耗,有效地提高了观测任务效率。     

新疆清水泉一带成矿地质特征及金铜矿找矿前景

清水泉一带位于新疆东准噶尔卡拉麦里成矿带西段,近年来,新发现铜矿床1处,铜矿点2处,金矿(化)脉6条,显示出良好的成矿潜力。在前人研究基础上,系统总结清水泉一带成矿地质背景,分析清水泉一带物化探和遥感异常特征。推断清水泉一带分布的主要地层与带内发现的金铜矿床赋矿地层一致;物探特征显示清水泉一带重力梯度值与深大断裂大体吻合;化探资料显示多处金铜矿的异常与带内金铜矿化带分布吻合;遥感资料异常提取结果与化探、构造特征在空间上的展布基本一致。在此基础上分析清水泉一带成矿地质特征,总结找矿模型,以期为资源潜力评价工作提供借鉴和参考。     

湖南常宁仙人岩金矿找矿过程及实物地质资料再利用

通过1988—1990年对前期保存的岩心进行重新取样分析测试,发现了达到工业品位的金的赋矿有利地段。实物地质资料的二次开发对该矿的找矿突破起到了关键作用。此后开展的几次勘查成果,保守累计至少金属资源量达到中-大型规模,经济效益显著。对该矿的成矿地质特征及成因进行了分析,指出了找矿方向。该实例表明,随着找矿理论的不断深入,通过研究周边已知矿床成矿模式及控矿条件,运用相似类比方法,科学开发已有的实物地质资料,是实现找矿突破的有效途径。     

Dynamic response of wind turbine towers in warm permafrost

Wind is a great source of renewable energy in western Alaska.Consistent winds blow across the barren tundra underlain by warm permafrost in the winter season,when the energy demand is the highest.Foundation engineering in warm permafrost has always been a challenge in wind energy development.Degrading warm permafrost poses engineering issues to design,construction,and operation of wind turbines.This paper describes the foundation design of a wind turbine built in western Alaska.It presents a system for response monitoring and load assessment,and data collected from September 2013 to March 2014.The dynamic properties are assessed based on the monitoring data,and seasonal changes in the dynamic properties of the turbine tower-foundation system and likely resonance between the spinning blades and the tower structure are discussed.These analyses of a wind turbine in warm permafrost are valuable for designing or retrofitting of foundations in warm permafrost.     

一种城市地震动区划方法

文中从场地划分入手,提出了一种城市地震动参数区划方法新思路:即首先利用专业软件Surfer和ArcGis对区域内的钻孔资料进行处理,构建包含土层厚度、波速分布和建筑场地分类等信息的三维地下模型,并对地表进行场地分区和网格划分。然后在每一场地分区内,选取若干个典型钻孔,进行一维土层地震响应分析,计算结果代表该类场地的地震反应,再根据区域内所有离散点(网格点)的信息,即可获得整个计算区域的地表地震反应结果,进而得到整个区域的地震动参数区划,以及不同加速度峰值的等值线。这一方法可用于计算不同强度地震输入下,区域内地震动的分布,其结果可用于城市震害预测,特别是震后快速评估。     

遥感和光谱地质进展及其对矿产勘查的实践应用

根据2009年Economic Geology出版的专辑Remote Sensing and Spectral Geology,近年来发表的相关文献以及研究和应用的实践,对遥感与光谱地质进行了综述.内容从测谱学、TM/ETM和ASTER宽波段遥感应用,到地面和航空高光谱遥感应用与热红外遥感.传统的信息填图主要是解译,现...     

Evaluation of summer temperature and precipitation predictions from NCEP CFSv2 retrospective forecast over China

National Centers for Environmental Prediction recently upgraded its operational seasonal forecast system to the fully coupled climate modeling system referred to as CFSv2. CFSv2 has been used to make seasonal climate forecast retrospectively between 1982 and 2009 before it became operational. In this study, we evaluate the model’s ability to predict the summer temperature and precipitation over China using the 120 9-month reforecast runs initialized between January 1 and May 26 during each year of the reforecast period. These 120 reforecast runs are evaluated as an ensemble forecast using both deterministic and probabilistic metrics. The overall forecast skill for summer temperature is high while that for summer precipitation is much lower. The ensemble mean reforecasts have reduced spatial variability of the climatology. For temperature, the reforecast bias is lead time-dependent, i.e., reforecast JJA temperature become warmer when lead time is shorter. The lead time dependent bias suggests that the initial condition of temperature is somehow biased towards a warmer condition. CFSv2 is able to predict the summer temperature anomaly in China, although there is an obvious upward trend in both the observation and the reforecast. Forecasts of summer precipitation with dynamical models like CFSv2 at the seasonal time scale and a catchment scale still remain challenge, so it is necessary to improve the model physics and parameterizations for better prediction of Asian monsoon rainfall. The probabilistic skills of temperature and precipitation are quite limited. Only the spatially averaged quantities such as averaged summer temperature over the Northeast China of CFSv2 show higher forecast skill, of which is able to discriminate between event and non-event for three categorical forecasts. The potential forecast skill shows that the above and below normal events can be better forecasted than normal events. Although the shorter the forecast lead time is, the higher deterministic prediction skill appears, the probabilistic prediction skill does not increase with decreased lead time. The ensemble size does not play a significant role in affecting the overall probabilistic forecast skill although adding more members improves the probabilistic forecast skill slightly.