山东棉花产量旱灾损失评估模型

采用统计方法,对棉花气象产量与气候因子进行统计分析,得到了各生育时段影响产量的主要降水因子和需水指标,从而根据当年的降水量对棉花产量因旱灾造成的损失程度进行评估,建立区域、省级棉花旱灾损失评估模型。     

基于Parsivel天气现象仪资料的郑州“7·20”罕见特大暴雨微物理特征分析

基于2016-2018年ECMWF模式温度预报和浙江省72个国家基本站观测资料,根据温度日变化特征,采用K-近邻(KNN)回归算法进行误差订正,改进浙江省172 h精细化温度预报。在KNN回归算法中,将模式起报时刻的温度视作“背景”,由模式预报减去起报时刻温度消除“背景”影响,得到温度日变化曲线,通过温度日变化曲线构建差异指标,选取历史相似个例。根据历史相似个例的误差特征,对温度预报进行订正,得到改进的温度预报。检验结果表明,KNN方案的温度预报平均绝对误差较ECMWF和30 d滑动平均误差订正方案(OCF)的分别减小26.2%和5.2%;日最高和最低温度预报误差绝对值小于2℃,准确率较ECMWF的分别提高14.8%和4.3%,较OCF的分别提高3.0%和1.3%。KNN方案对地形复杂地区的温度预报改进效果更为明显,对冷空气活动和夏季高温等天气过程预报改善效果也较稳定。     

天气学和天气预报的研究进展

全面回顾了75年来中国科学院大气物理研究所科研人员在气团、锋面、梅雨、寒潮、阻高、副高、暴雨、高低空急流、亚澳季风区内涡旋和对流等现象的天气学研究进展及其在不同时期所取得的研究成果,总结了在短中期天气预报及短期气候预测领域在模式发展和改进以及在数值模拟等方面所取得的成就和进展.同时指出模式发展和预测在中国数值天气预报及短期气候预测方面所做出的贡献.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping based on GIS and information value model for the Chencang District of Baoji,China

The main objective of this study was to apply a statistical (information value) model using geographic information system (GIS) to the Chencang District of Baoji, China. Landslide locations within the study area were identified using reports and aerial photographs, and a field survey. A total of 120 landslides were mapped, of which 84 (70 %) were randomly selected for building the landslide susceptibility model. The remaining 36 (30 %) were used for model validation. We considered a total of 10 potential factors that predispose an area to a landslide for the landslide susceptibility mapping. These included slope degree, altitude, slope aspect, plan curvature, geomorphology, distance from faults, lithology, land use, mean annual rainfall, and peak ground acceleration. Following an analysis of these factors, a landslide susceptibility map was produced using the information value model with GIS. The resulting landslide susceptibility index was divided into five classes (very high, high, moderate, low, and very low) using the natural breaks method. The corresponding distribution area percentages were 29.22, 25.14, 15.66, 15.60, and 14.38 %, respectively. Finally, landslide locations were used to validate the results of the landslide susceptibility map using areas under the curve (AUC). The AUC plot showed that the susceptibility map had a success rate of 81.79 % and a prediction accuracy of 82.95 %. Based on the results of the AUC evaluation, the landslide susceptibility map produced using the information value model exhibited good performance.     

磨西-田湾剪切带氡异常及其对金矿化的指示

测氡方法是寻找深部隐伏矿的一种放射性地球物理方法.在川西田湾大发沟矿床,由于金矿化严格受剪切带和辉绿岩脉控制,且剪切带与辉绿岩脉密切伴生,因此,应用测氡方法寻找剪切带和辉绿岩脉可以达到间接找金矿的目的.     

西秦岭马脑壳金矿床构造变形特征 与成矿关系研究

马脑壳金矿床构造变形复杂且研究薄弱,作者通过野外地质填图并结合矿山生产勘探,以构造解析为研究方法,对马脑壳金矿床的变形特征与金成矿关系进行了研究。构造解析表明区内地层在成岩期遭受了同生变形,成岩后先后遭受了NE-SW向的挤压褶皱逆冲变形（[T₃³]）、左行走滑变形并伴随伸展塌陷变形（J_1-2）,宏观上表现为推覆—走滑控矿,即印支末期推覆作用形成的变形样式整体控制着金矿体的产出和分布,后期走滑作用叠加改造导致的张性破裂样式控制着金矿化强度,成矿作用主要发生在左行走滑变形阶段（J_1-2）,成矿机制是燕山早中期（J_1-2）西秦岭地区由强烈的挤压动力体制向弥散间隔密集的走滑动力体制转换,导致含矿热液沿构造薄弱带（如区内F2断裂）上升迁移并在构造动力体制转换强烈的区域发生大规模金沉淀。西秦岭地区和松潘—甘孜地区的微细浸染型金矿极有可能形成于燕山早期（J_1-2）由挤压向走滑构造动力体制转过程中。     

劲芯水泥土桩承载路堤渐进式失稳破坏机制

劲芯水泥土桩是一种软土地基处理的新方法,近年来已成功应用于公路、铁路路基处理工程中。然而由于人们对其承载路堤的失稳破坏机制认识不足,无法正确指导设计。采用反映桩体材料破坏后特征的应变软化模型,模拟劲芯水泥土桩承载路堤失稳破坏1g模型试验,通过分析路堤失稳破坏过程中桩体塑性区的开展和桩身受力的变化情况,研究了桩体的破坏顺序及其破坏模式。结果表明:路堤失稳过程中,劲芯水泥土桩并非同时发生破坏,路面正下方桩体首先发生受压破坏,坡面下方桩体自坡脚至坡肩依次发生弯剪破坏;由于桩体的存在,路基中滑动面并非完全穿过桩体破坏位置。基于桩体破坏顺序、破坏模式、受力情况变化,以及荷载传递规律,阐释了劲芯水泥土桩承载路堤渐进式失稳破坏机制。采用现行规范中基于残余强度的柔性桩处理方法,计算的安全系数与试验结果较为接近,但其适用性还需做进一步研究。     

晋北沙漠化地区起沙风风况与输沙势

利用10个气象站点2001、2005、2010,2014年风速数据,计算并分析了晋北沙漠化地区起沙风风况及输沙势时空变化。结果表明：研究区年均起沙风频率和起沙风平均风速均为春季最大,冬季次之,夏季最小,各季节和全年年际变化均表现为大致减小趋势;输沙势显示研究区春季处于中风能环境,是最主要的风沙活动期,其他季节和全年整体上均处于低风能环境;春季风能环境总体呈减弱趋势,这可能是导致研究区2000年以来沙漠化逆转的重要因素之一;受地势影响,研究区春季风能环境呈北高南低、东高西低趋势,最高值位于东北部的大同盆地。     

Geochemistry of organic matter and elements of black shale during weathering in Northern Guizhou,Southwestern China: Their mobilization and inter-connection

Different from previous studies on effect of weathering upon geochemical variation along a single weathered profile, this paper provides a new methodology validated by comparing a weathered outcrop samples and their stratigraphic counterpart un-weathered core samples in a nearby shallow borehole. This outcrop and borehole penetrated the Ordovician-Silurian Wufeng–Longmaxi shales, located in the same anticline structure in the northern part of Guizhou Province, Southern China. The mineral composition, major, trace and rare earth elements (REEs) composition and Rock-Eval parameters of outcrop and core samples were analyzed and compared. Organic matter (OM) was observed in the microscope and extracted for elements analysis. The results show that short-term weathering still has significant influence on OM, mineral and elemental composition of black shales. The elements composition shows the outcrop profile was moderately weathered. The REEs compositions do not alter much during weathering process and the REEs composition and their relative ratios still are valid for rock origin determination. The OM, mainly composed by graptolite and bitumen, even entering the highly-over thermal maturity, is still sensitive to the weathering with a systematic loss 30–50% of TOC along the outcrop profile, which suggests that the OM consumption is predominantly controlled by weathering duration and the distance from the weathering surface. In turn, OM has significant influence on the trace elements transportation behavior during weathering. Some trace elements associated with the OM such as V, Cr, Th, U, Ni and Co, change significantly in their absolute concentration during weathering, but their relative ratios do not necessarily change too much and might be still reliable proxies for paleo-environmental determination. The mobility of shale minerals during weathering is in the following order: plagioclase?>?potassium feldspar and dolomite >pyrite and OM. Short-term weathering can also result in considerable transportation of elements and significant variation of minerals content in black shale, which may pose potentially high environmental and engineering risk in the regions rich in black shale.     

西藏措勤地区典中组火山岩同位素特征及地质意义

西藏冈底斯岩浆岩带西段北侧的林子宗群火山岩含有从板块俯冲机制向大陆碰撞机制转变的丰富信息。将措勤地区典中组火山岩与冈底斯岩浆岩带东段林周盆地的典中组火山岩在同位素地球化学、演化特征方面进行对比,探讨冈底斯岩浆岩带西段与东段在演化过程中的异同性。结果表明,措勤地区典中组火山岩的87Sr/86Sr初始比值变化范围为0.710352~0.713423,具较高的87Sr/86Sr比值;143Nd/144Nd初始比值为0.512293~0.512407,具较低的143Nd/144Nd比值;林周盆地典中组火山岩的87Sr/86Sr初始比值为0.7057~0.7063之间,143Nd/144Nd初始比值范围为0.5125~0.5126。同位素特征显示措勤地区典中组源区物质可能来自于富集Ⅱ型地幔,即源区为俯冲和再循环的大陆地壳物质与地幔岩发生了混合作用的产物,源区受控于冈底斯地壳基底。林周盆地典中组火山岩源区物质可能与富集Ⅰ型地幔有关。