贵州夏季暴雨的气候特征

 利用贵州52个测站的1961-2006年历年夏季（6-8月）逐日降水资料,分析了贵州夏季暴雨的时空分布特征、周期振荡及其突变特征。结果表明：46 a来贵州夏季暴雨量呈增加趋势,并存在明显的年际、年代际变化特征;暴雨日数和暴雨量在1985年发生突变;暴雨日数和暴雨量均存在15 a和准10 a的周期振荡;暴雨日数和暴雨量EOF分解的第一特征向量的荷载场空间分布基本一致,表明全省呈偏多（少）的一致型同位相分布。     

近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征

采用国家基准气候站和基本气象站的地面资料,系统地分析了中国大陆地区1951年以来近地表主要气候要素演化的时间和空间特征。结果表明,中国近50 a来年平均地表气温变暖幅度约为1.1℃,增温速率接近0.22℃/(10 a),比全球或半球同期平均增温速率明显偏高。地表气温增暖主要发生在最近的20余年,其季节和空间特征与前人分析结论基本一致。降水量变化趋势对所取时间段和区域范围敏感。1951年以来全国平均降水量变化趋势不明显,但1956年以来略有增加。降水变化的空间特征明显而相对稳定,东北北部、包括长江中下游的东南部地区和西部广大地区降水增加,而华北地区以及东北东南部和西北东部地区降水明显减少。分析还发现,近50a来全国平均的日照时数、平均风速、水面蒸发等气候要素均呈显著下降趋势,但积雪地带的最大积雪深度却有所增加。中国日照时间和水面蒸发量变化的空间特征很相似,减少最明显的地区均发生在华北和华东,新疆次之。影响中国年代以上尺度气候变化的因子错综复杂,人类活动引起的大气中温室气体浓度增高可能在一定程度上影响了中国近50 a来的气候,但考虑到尚存的不确定性,目前仍不能给出明确结论。中国东部大部分地区日照时间和水面蒸发量减少可能均起源于人为排放的气溶胶影响,平均风速减弱也有利于水面蒸发量下降,而在西部地区云量和降水量的变化可能更重要。     

不同降水天气系统自然降水特征及火箭人工增雨潜力分析

统计分析了1981~2000年20年中15种降水天气系统影响下河北地区自然降水特征,并对火箭人工增雨的潜力进行了初步分析。统计分析表明:西来槽类、高空低涡类、冷锋、切变线和副高后部等天气系统是影响河北地区的主要降水系统,其降雨量和降雨日数占到了90%以上;不同的天气系统在不同季节对降水的贡献有所不同,其中西来槽类的降雨量和降雨日数均居首位,开展人工增雨催化作业机会最多;夏季降水系统最强,云水资源最为丰富,人工增雨潜力很大,是开展火箭人工增雨催化作业的最佳季节,春秋两季增雨潜力明显比夏季小,冬季最小;倒槽、副高后部、台风低压、高空低涡类和气旋类等系统最强,日降雨量和单位面积降雨量明显比其它系统大,尤其对蓄水型火箭增雨作业十分有利。     

正压准平衡海洋模型及其解Ⅱ:中纬度自由涡旋波动

本文研究了正压准平衡海洋模型中的自由涡旋波.得到的主要结论有:该模型中的解为波包,其载频都是西传的.在仅考虑大洋西海岸时其载频频率是连续谱;而同时考虑大洋东、西海岸时则其为离散谱;且均有其载频频率越高(周期越短)其水平尺度越大的特点,对过分低频的波动,则会使准平衡的假定不再适用.模型中波包载频的周期约在26 d至24 ...     

Prediction of tropical cyclone frequency with a wavelet neural network model incorporating natural orthogonal expansion and combined weights

A nonlinear wavelet neural network (WNN) model with natural orthogonal expansion (NOE) and combined weights is constructed to predict the annual frequency of tropical cyclones (TCF) occurring over the coastal regions of Southern China. Combined weights are obtained by calculating categorical weights, based on the particle swarm projection pursuit, and ranking weights, based on fuzzy mathematics, followed by optimization. The global monthly mean heights at 500?hPa and sea-surface temperature fields are used as two predictors. The linear and nonlinear information of the predictors with reduced dimensions is gathered through the NOE and combined weights, respectively, and treated as the input into the WNN model. This model is first trained with the 55-year (i.e., 1950?C2004) TCF data and then used to predict annual TCFs for the subsequent 5?years (i.e., 2005?C2009). Results show that the mean absolute and relative errors are 0.6175 and 9.34?%, respectively. The impacts of the combined weights, NOE and WNN as well as the traditional multi-regression approach on the TCF prediction are examined. Results show superior performance of the WNN-based model in the annual TCF prediction.     

塔里木盆地卫星重力异常与油气资源的相关性研究

利用中国地区３６０阶局部重力场模型ＩＧＧ９３Ｅ，计算出不同阶窗的卫星重力异常，然后利用Ｍｏｌｏｄｅｎｓｋｙ单层密度积分方程将卫星重力转化为分层面密度异常，结合其他地球物理资料，分析并探讨了塔里木盆地油气资源与卫星重力异常的相关性。研究表明：塔里木盆地油气资源分布与１０１－１８０阶卫星分同密度异常图中负密度异常带关系密切。而１８１－３６０阶卫重分层面异常图则对盆地内生油、储油的坳陷、隆起等构造有较９     

海水中微量元素无机离子交换动力学研究——液膜递进模型理论 Ⅰ.天然海水条件下

最近十几年来,海水物理化学中关于海水的化学热力学研究已较广泛地开展,并已有一些重要的研究结果报导。但是,关于海水中化学动力学的研究,至今却基本上仍属空白。然而这正是海洋中许多化学过程(特别像海水化学资源开发、海洋污染和防治等实践性比较强的领域中)要解决的关键问题。本文是我们从事这一方面研究工作的第一篇报导,讨论的内容是海洋中最重要的过程之一——无机离子交换过程。     

Seasonal and spatial variation in abundance and egg production of Paracalanus parvus (Copepoda: Calanoida) in/out Jiaozhou Bay, China

The spatial distribution of stage-specific abundance and reproduction of the copepod Paracalanus parvus were studied from October 2005 to September 2006 in the Jiaozhou Bay. This copepod occurred continuously in this bay throughout the year. The species reached the lowest abundance in April and peaked in June. From October to December, distribution center mainly occurred in offshore water and at the mouth of the bay. In winter, early copepodites and adults gradually decreased and till February, most of the population was only comprised of CIV–CV stages. Overwintering copepodites matured in March and males tended to mature before female. From May to September, each stage occurred in the population and gradually reached high abundance. Temperature and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentration in the three stations can't clearly explain the seasonal variation in stage-specific abundance, so we surmised the important effect of the Yellow Sea. Egg production rate (EPR) reached its lowest in winter and peaked in June at 60.8 eggs female⁻¹ day⁻¹ in nearshore water. In the warming period, EPR in nearshore water was statistically higher and EPR > 10 eggs female⁻¹ day⁻¹ lasted longer than that in offshore water, showing the importance of nearshore water for recruitment of P. parvus. Our study showed that EPR was positively related to temperature and total chlorophyll a in offshore water and mouth of the bay. In nearshore water, the relationships between EPR and temperature and Chl-a in three size fractions were not the same as those in offshore water, suggesting complicated ecosystem in such a eutrophic area in warming period.     

海藻糖类的气相色谱分析 Ⅱ.红藻及红藻多糖中D-半乳糖和3, 6-内醚半乳糖的测定

红藻中的糖类主要以多糖形式存在(琼胶、卡拉胶等)，其中主要的单糖组分是D-半乳糖和3, 6-内醚半乳糖，除此之外还含有少晕的木糖、葡萄糖及甘露糖等成分。由于各单糖的相互干扰，难以用比色等着通化学分析方法对每一种单糖准确地定性定量。作者曾研究过褐藻中单糖的气相色谱测定法, 但该法不能测定3, 6-内醚半乳糖，囚为这种内醚糖对酸水解不稳定。据Dutton和Nozawa等人报道, 将多糖经甲醇分解后进行气相色谱分析，结果令人满意。本文用琼胶(Difco bacto-agar)作代表，研究探讨了红藻胶甲醇-HCI分解的条件，确定了红藻胶中D-半乳糖和3, 6-内醚半乳糖的气相色谱分析方法，并将其应用于红藻中D-半乳糖和3, 6-内醚半乳糖的分析。