Risk assessment of maize drought disaster in southwest China using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model

The East Asian monsoon has a tremendous impact on agricultural production in China. An assessment of the risk of drought disaster in maize-producing regions is therefore important in ensuring a reduction in such disasters and an increase in food security. A risk assessment model, EPIC(Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model, for maize drought disasters based on the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator crop model is proposed for areas with the topographic characteristics of the mountainous karst region in southwest China. This region has one of the highest levels of environmental degradation in China. The results showed that the hazard risk level for the maize zone of southwest China is generally high. Most hazard index values were between 0.4 and 0.5,accounting for 47.32% of total study area. However,the risk level for drought loss was low. Most of the loss rate was 0.1, accounting for 96.24% of the total study area. The three high-risk areas were mainlydistributed in the parallel ridge–valley areas in the east of Sichuan Province, the West Mountain area of Guizhou Province, and the south of Yunnan Province.These results provide a scientific basis and support for the reduction of agricultural drought disasters and an increase in food security in the southwest China maize zone.     

内蒙古黄旗海不同粒级湖泊沉积物Rb、Sr组成与环境变化

内蒙古黄旗海湖泊沉积物剖面层次结构清晰完整,通过对该剖面全样、77 μm~20 μm和小于20 μm三个不同粒级Rb、Sr含量和磁化率的系统测定,结果表明,湖泊沉积物中小于20 μm粒级成分的Rb、Sr含量和Rb/Sr值变化阶段明显,Rb/Sr值与磁化率分布曲线十分吻合,因此,小于20 μm粒级成分的Rb/Sr值与磁化率包含更加真实的古气候环境信息。Rb/Sr值反映了风化的强度,因而可以作为指示夏季风环流强度的代用指标。黄旗海湖泊沉积物的地球化学Rb、Sr元素含量和Rb/Sr值以及磁化率值波动特征具有深刻的环境演变背景,由此揭示的环境特征在一定程度上反映了全新世气候千百年尺度的波动变化,与全球气候波动有关。     

Prompt optical emission and synchrotron self-absorption constraints on emission site of GRBs

We constrain the distance of the gamma-ray burst (GRB) prompt emission site from the explosion centre R , by determining the location of the electron's self-absorption frequency in the GRB prompt optical-to-X/γ-ray spectral energy distribution, assuming that the optical and the γ-ray emissions are among the same synchrotron radiation continuum of a group of hot electrons. All possible spectral regimes are considered in our analysis. The method has only two assumed parameters, namely the bulk Lorentz factor of the emitting source Γ and the magnetic field strength B in the emission region (with a weak dependence). We identify a small sample of four bursts that satisfy the following three criteria: (1) they all have simultaneous optical and γ-ray detections in multiple observational time intervals, (2) they all show temporal correlations between the optical and γ-ray light curves and (3) the optical emission is consistent with belonging to the same spectral component as the γ-ray emission. For all the time intervals of these four bursts, it is inferred that   R ≥ 10¹⁴  (Γ/300)^3/4 ( B /10⁵ G)^1/4  cm. For a small fraction of the sample, the constraint can be pinned down to   R ≈ 10¹⁴–10¹⁵ cm  for  Γ∼ 300  . For a second sample of bursts with prompt optical non-detections, only upper limits on R can be obtained. We find no inconsistency between the R -constraints for this non-detection sample and those for the detection sample.     

中国地壳运动观测网络基准站GPS观测的位移时间序列结果

对中国地壳运动观测网络基准网于1998年9月－2001年10月GPS连续观测结果所获得的位移时间序列进行了初步分析，讨论了适用于地震分析预报的位移时间序列生成中的基准选择。选东部长期相对水平位移很小的9个站组成的一组稳定点作为基准，得到水平位移时间序列；选分布于不同区域相对垂直位移较小的7个站为稳定点组，得到垂直位移时间序列。2000－2001年我国西部的基准站出现2次明显的水平与垂直位移异常变化，这种异常变化有可能与南北地震带上云南地区发生的6级左右地震活动有一定的关系。     

Phase evolution of Holocene paleoenvironmental changes in the southern Yellow Sea: Benthic foraminiferal evidence from core C02

Assemblages of benthic foraminifera in a sediment core (C02) near the western margin of the southern Yellow Sea Mud were studied to decipher the phase evolution of Holocene paleoenvironmental changes associated with the Holocene marine transgression. It appears that during the early Holocene (11.2–10.1 kyr BP), the faunal was dominated by low salinity and shallow water species Cribrononion subincertum, Buccella frigida and Ammonia beccarii, reflecting a near coast depositional environment. A rapid increase of the relative abundance of Ammonia compressiuscula between 10.1–9.3 kyr BP indicates that the sea level rose rapidly during that time period. From 9.3–7.7 kyr BP, the benthic foraminiferal assemblage was dominated by high percentage of A. compressiscula, suggesting that the sea level was relatively stable. An obvious transition of benthic foraminifera, from the A. compressiuscula-dominated assemblage to an Ammonia ketienziensis-dominated assemblage, occurred between 7.7–6.2 kyr BP, possibly corresponding to a second sea level rapid rise period in the Yellow Sea during the Holocene. This transition may correspond to the gradually strengthened Yellow Sea warm current (YSWC) and finally is established the modern-type circulation in the Yellow Sea. It may also mark the formation of the Yellow Sea cold bottom water (YSCBW) during that period. Since then, the benthic foraminiferal assemblage based on core C02 was dominated by typical YSCBW species, A. ketienziensis, Astrononion italicum and Hanzawaia nipponica, at 6.2–4 kyr BP. A non-deposition period occurred since ～4 kyr BP, which possibly related to the hydrology changes caused by the East Asia monsoon. The two obvious benthic foraminiferal transitions recorded in core C02 during the early and middle Holocene provide evidence that the Yellow Sea has undergone a two-phase rapid sea level rise during the Holocene marine transgression.     

郑州节水型社会试点建设评价研究

郑州市是水利部确定的南水北调东中线受水区全国节水型社会建设试点,自2005年试点建设开展以来取得了显著的成绩,被授予全国节水型社会建设示范市。为科学评价试点建设成效,参照水利部制定的《节水型社会建设评价指标体系(试行)》,结合郑州市实际,建立了郑州节水型社会试点建设评价指标体系。采用层次分析法对节水型社会试点建设成效进行了评价,确定郑州市已基本建立节水型社会。     

微波爆发区的日冕磁场研究

回顾了日冕磁的研究历史，介绍了我们首镒提出的日冕磁场的微波诊断方法及其应用的带来的启迪，提出进一步开展日冕磁场及其相关研究的建议。     

祁连山南坡灌丛草甸生物量变化与水热因子的关系研究

通过野外调研和室内实验,研究了祁连山南坡灌丛草甸地上生物量的生长季变化,并对地上生物量与水热因子的关系进行了探讨。结果表明：在不同区域群落结构有所不同,覆盖度越低,上层和下层的植物高度越低,丰富度和多样性越小。但均匀度还受草场退化阶段的影响,群落结构相对稳定,植物的均匀度越高;地上生物量的年内变化是单峰曲线,乌鞘岭和门源的地上生物量在7月份最大,祁连和野牛沟的地上生物量在9月份最大;地上生物量的积累与前1月和前2月的气温和降水正相关,与前4月的气温也正相关,并且对气温变化的敏感性大于降水,但与地温和土壤水分的相关性不明显,前1月表层地温较高对地上生物量的积累有积极作用;对于地上生物量积累,日气温、日相对湿度、降水量有直接正向作用,而日最高气温、日最低气温、日水汽压有直接负向作用,5 cm、20 cm地温和0~10 cm、20~30 cm土壤水分也有直接正向作用,而10 cm地温和10~20 cm土壤水分也有直接负向作用。     

基于CiteSpace中国海洋经济研究的知识图谱分析

利用CiteSpace可视化文献分析工具对1982~2013年CNKI总库中文核心期刊以及CSSCI中文社会科学引文数据库中海洋经济研究的3 441篇相关文献进行分析,绘制出研究热点、核心作者群及研究机构的知识结构图谱。结果表明：自中国海洋经济研究会成立以来,中国海洋经济研究主要围绕 “海洋经济”、“海洋产业”、“可持续发展”、“海洋资源”、“海洋开发”、“滨海旅游”等展开;韩增林、张耀光、郑贵斌、殷克东、李靖宇、徐志斌等是主要的发文作者;国家海洋局、中国海洋大学、辽宁师范大学和广东海洋大学为发文较多的机构;《海洋开发与管理》是海洋经济相关研究载文量最多的期刊,《经济地理》、《中国人口·资源与环境》、《地域研究与开发》、《资源科学》等是主要的载文核心期刊。除了传统的海洋经济研究视角下,区域海洋经济差异、海洋产业结构与布局及优化、海洋产业竞争力、海洋产业集群、现代海洋产业、海洋资源开发利用的可持续、人海关系的脆弱性、滨海旅游等的研究外,在新的国际和国内形势下,海洋经济相关理论、战略性新兴海洋产业研究、海洋经济可持续发展研究、及“一路一带”战略对海洋经济相关研究的新要求也是需要重点关注的方面。     

汶川8.0级地震前后陕西地区地倾斜特征迁移分析

对汶川8.0级地震前后陕西地区地倾斜观测资料的分析发现,汶川地震前陕西地区地倾斜存在沿龙门山断裂带方向由东北向西南震中迁移,震后地倾斜反向迁移,迁移平均速度为3～4 km/天。进一步分析认为,震前陕西地区地倾斜向震源迁移可能对汶川8.0级地震起到了触发作用,而震后地倾斜向远场迁移有可能是诱发陕甘川交界的中强余震的主因。