浙江干旱特征及其与区域气候变化关系

应用干旱综合指数对浙江自1952年以来的干旱年代际变化特征进行研究,用小波分析方法对50多年来的夏秋季降水、气温进行分析.研究指出:浙江发生强干旱往往会连续两年出现;在20世纪50、60年代及21世纪以来浙江干旱强度比较强,强干旱的发生与夏季气温偏高、降水偏少是同步的;70年代末气候发生突变,浙江从干旱期转入湿润期,21世纪以来,气候有一次小振动,浙江由湿润期转入干旱多发.     

四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害风险评估

以四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害为研究对象,将烤烟气候适应性特征和自然灾害系统论相结合,利用冰雹频率、DEM高程数据、下垫面类型以及农业经济数据等资料,构建冰雹灾害风险评估指标体系,从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性和抗灾能力4个方面进行分析,最终建立四川烤烟主产区冰雹灾害精细化风险评估模型并计算风险分布指数,借此将攀西烟区划分为由高至低的5个风险区域和1个不适宜种植区。结果表明,安宁河源头河谷地区、雅砻江下游流域以及攀西地区南部的河谷低山区和丘陵区冰雹灾害风险处于较高水平。评估结果为区域烤烟种植结构调整及冰雹灾害防御工作提供了科学指导。     

闽北汛期强降水中尺度特征分析

为揭示闽北暴雨的中尺度规律,利用1980~2005年南平市10县(市、区)气象站5~6月雨量大于等于50mm达到或超过3个站的43个暴雨过程129个暴雨日的逐时降水自记资料,分析了汛期暴雨日雨团和强雨团的时空分布、强度及持续时间、移动规律、雨团与影响系统的关系以及地形对雨团的产生、分布、移动等的影响等,得出闽北汛期强降水的中尺度若干特征,其结论可为预报人员在业务实践中提供有益的参考。     

CCD astrometric observations of 2017 VR12, Camillo and Midas

We have observed three near-Earth objects(NEOs), 2017 VR12, Camillo and Midas, during 2018.The observations were made with the 1-m telescope, operated by Yunnan Observatories, over two nights.Their precise astrometric positions are derived from 989 CCD observations. The theoretical positions of asteroids are retrieved from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory(JPL) Horizons System and Institut de M′ecanique C′eleste et de Calcul des ′Eph′em′erides(IMCCE). The positions of three asteroids are measured with respect to stars in the Gaia DR2 star catalog. For 2017 VR12, the means(O-C) of right ascension and declination are -0.090′′and-0.623′′respectively based on the published JPL ephemeris, but the corresponding means(O-C) are 3.122′′and-0.636′′based on the published IMCCE ephemeris. The great difference in declination could be explained by several factors.(1) The degraded CCD images caused by the fast apparent motion of the objects lead to a reduction in positioning accuracy.(2) The poor timing system may introduce systematic errors, especially in the high speed direction.(3) The asteroid may be perturbed by Earth when it approaches the Earth too closely. These astrometric results demonstrate that the centroid centering method can reduce the dispersion of non-Gaussian images as compared with the PSF modeling method.For Camillo and Midas, the astrometric results are consistent based on the two ephemerides. Implementing a high-precision timing system, and analyzing some astronomical effects and geometric distortions in CCD images should be carefully considered in future works.     

应急演练中基于G-R关系的主余型地震余震震级模拟

在现有的日常地震演练过程中,与应急救援密切相关的地震余震信息产品较为缺乏,直接影响发震构造的判断以及影响场修正等关键环节。本文从计算机系统提供的均匀分布随机数出发,运用反函数法模拟生成余震序列,并进行系统检验,证实该方法产生的余震序列满足G-R频次关系。模拟生成的余震震级数据既有助于增强地震应急救援演练的现实性,也有助于丰富地震应急宣传产品,提升地震部门的履职能力。     

北大西洋风场和海浪场特点分析

根据1950～1995年共46a的北大西洋气象船舶报资料,对按5°×5°网格统计的风、浪要素进行分析研究,阐明了北大西洋风、浪、涌的特点及其变化规律.该区是世界典型的季风气候区,季风时期的风向、风浪传播方向、涌浪传播方向基本一致,低纬地区常年盛行东北浪.冬季季风比夏季季风强盛,相应的平均波高、大浪大涌频率也较大.该海域与北印度洋同属季风气候区,但其特点正好相反.本文提供了较翔实的风场和浪场资料及变化规律.     

Petrological evidence for shock‐induced high‐P metamorphism in a gabbro

Microlites (minute spherulitic, dendritic, skeletal, acicular and poikilitic crystals) diagnostic of crystallization in quenched melt or glass in fault rocks have been used to infer fossil earthquakes. High‐P microlites and crystallites are described here in a variably eclogitized gabbro, the wallrock to the coesite‐bearing eclogite breccia at Yangkou in the Chinese Su‐Lu high‐P metamorphic belt. The studied hand specimens are free of discernible shear deformation, although microfractures are not uncommon under the microscope. In the least eclogitized gabbro, the metagabbro, stellate growths of high‐P minerals on the relict igneous minerals are common. Dendritic garnet crystals (<1?5 μm) grew around rutile and/or phengite replacing ilmenite and biotite, respectively. Skeletal garnet also rims broken flakes of igneous biotite and mechanically twinned augite. Radial intergrowths of omphacite and quartz developed around relict igneous orthopyroxene and are rimmed by skeletal or poikilitic garnet where a Ti‐bearing mineral relict is present. Acicular epidote, kyanite and phengite crystallites are randomly distributed in a matrix of Na‐rich plagioclase, forming the pseudomorphs after igneous plagioclase. In the more eclogitized gabbro, the coronitic eclogite located closer to the eclogite breccia, all the igneous minerals broke down into high‐P assemblages. Thick coronas of poikilitic garnet grew between the pseudomorphs after igneous plagioclase and ferromagnesian minerals. The igneous plagioclase is replaced by omphacite crystallites, with minor amounts of phengite and kyanite. Thermodynamic modelling of the plagioclase pseudomorphs shows an increase in P–T in the wallrock from the metagabbro to the coronitic eclogite, and the P–T variation is unrelated to H₂O content. The fluid‐poor pressure overstepping scenario is unsupported both by phase diagram modelling and by whole‐rock chemical data, which show that the various types of eclogitized gabbro are all fairly dry. A large pressure difference of >2 GPa between the metagabbro and the coesite‐bearing eclogites ~20 m apart cannot be explained by the subduction hypothesis because this would require a depth difference of >60 km. The microlites and crystallites are evidence for dynamic crystallization due to rapid cooling because constitutional supercooling was unlikely for the plagioclase pseudomorphs. The lack of annealing of the broken biotite and augite overgrown by strain free skeletal garnet is consistent with a transient high‐P–T event at a low ambient temperature (<300 °C), probably in the crust. Therefore, the eclogitization of the wallrock to the eclogite breccia was also coseismic, as proposed earlier for the eclogite facies fault rocks. The outcrop‐scale P–T variation and the transient nature of the high‐P–T event are inconsistent with the other existing tectonic models for high‐P metamorphism. The fact that the less refractory but denser biotite is largely preserved while the more refractory but less dense plagioclase broke down completely into high‐P microlite assemblages in the metagabbro indicates a significant rise in pressure rather than temperature. Given that the metamorphic temperatures are far below the melting temperatures of most of the gabbroic minerals under fluid‐absent conditions, stress‐induced amorphization appears to be the more likely mechanism of the coseismic high‐P metamorphism.     

The mechanism of hindering occupants’ evacuation from seismic responses of building

Natural Hazards - Pedestrian evacuation from buildings during an earthquake needs to consider human behavior and building shaking. This study sets up an indoor evacuation model based on the social...     

合成孔径雷达反演裸露地表土壤水分的新方法

提出了一种新的合成孔径雷达(SAR)反演裸露地表土壤水分的经验模型,该模型同时考虑了均方根高度S和相关长度L的影响,并将两个粗糙度参数合二为一,然后利用VV和VH极化的后向散射系数即可反演得到土壤水分。通过实测数据对模型进行了验证,发现在θ0>20°时,模型反演值与模拟值有着良好的相关关系(R2=0.71)。该模型在不需要测量地面粗糙度的情况下可以反演得到比较好的土壤水分精度,尤其适用于地表情况复杂、难以精确测量的地区。     

长江流域沿江镉异常示踪与追源的战略与战术

正在进行的多目标地球化学调查成果显示,长江流域存在全流域的Cd异常。长江流域Cd异常示踪与追源研究的长期目标是查明长江流域沿江各主要支流(汇水面积大于5000km2)Cd等重金属元素的物质来源、迁移形式和输入/输出通量、分辨自然源与人为源各自所占份额,建立沿江各支流Cd时空演化模型,监测它的未来发展趋势,对潜在生态效应进行预警预测;短期目标是针对Cd异常的重点地区,如长江源头、三峡库区、湘江流域、江淮流域、长江三角洲及流域内的4大淡水湖泊,查明Cd异常的来源,重建Cd异常形成的地球化学记录,评估可预见的将来(如10～50年)Cd异常的生态效应。