A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Comparison of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge

Summary This paper presents an the evaluation of three mathematical models for the estimation of 10-day drain discharge using weather, pedological and phenological parameters. One model uses modified Palmer’s procedure for the calculation of water balance components and the second two use empirical multiple linear regression. The models have been applied to data of an amelioration experimental field in central Croatia (south-western part of the Pannonian Lowland), where a set of average 10-day air temperature and relative humidity data, average wind speed, cumulative precipitation and drain discharge amounts, insolation and soil moisture data and vegetation indices have been collected. The experiment has been performed during the period 1990–1992. The models have been tested by comparing estimated and observed 10-day drain discharge amounts. All models mainly give acceptable cumulative results although their accuracy depends on the season.     

Variable resolution on quasi-uniform grids: linear advection experiments

Summary A couple of different techniques for implementing the variable resolution within numerical models of the atmosphere that use quasi-uniform grids are estimated and compared based on their merit in the simple linear advection experiments. These techniques are: grid stretching, Schmidt transforming and grid overlapping. The quasi-uniform grids are: a conformal cubic and an octagonal grid. The techniques for the variable resolution are evaluated from the perspective of their effects on numerical solution and the practicality of their application. Our analysis suggests that the grid stretching is for now the most optimal choice. However, a special form of grid overlapping is presented that has potential to become a viable alternative in the future.     

Spectral analysis of the “Koshava” wind

Summary “Koshava” is a gusty wind of changeable intensity, blowing from a south-easterly direction, over Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria. It is caused by the interaction between the synoptic circulation and the orography of the Carpathian and the Balkan mountains. This paper analyzes wind data measured at the Belgrade-Observatory during the longest period of consecutive days of “Koshava” which occurred from 14 January to 13 February 1972. Mean hourly wind speed data has been examined using spectral analysis. The power spectra are calculated using autocorrelation spectral analysis, the multi-taper method and wavelet transform. The maximum of which is about 122 h (5 days) corresponds to the time span of synoptic processes.     

A Method to Determine the Solar Synodic Rotation Rate and the Height of Tracers

The dependence of the measured apparent synodic solar rotation rate on the height of the chosen tracer is studied. A significant error occurs if the rotation rate is determined by tracing the apparent position of an object above the photospheric level projected on the solar disc. The centre-to-limb variation of this error can be used to determine simultaneously the height of the object and the true synodic rotation rate. The apparent (projected) heliographic coordinates are presented as a function of the height of the traced object and the coordinates of its footpoint. The relations obtained provide an explicit expression for the apparent rotation rate as a function of the observed heliographic coordinates of the tracer, enabling an analytic least-squares fit expression to determine simultaneously the real synodic rotation rate and the height of the tracer.     

Point Cumulative Semivariogram for Identification of Heterogeneities in Regional Seismicity of Turkey

Geological events are neither isotropic nor homogeneous in their occurrences. These two properties present difficulties for spatial modeling of regionalized variables. This paper presents a point cumulative semivariogram (PCSV) technique for quantifying the heterogeneity characteristics of the phenomenon concerned. The basis of the methodology is to obtain experimental PCSVs for each measurement point which led to estimation of radius of influence around each site. In addition, the experimental PCSVs provide basic information about the heterogeneity of the geological variable in the region, and furthermore many useful interpretations can be made concerning the regional variability of the variable. It provides the measure of cumulative similarity of a regional variable around any measurement site. Because PCSV is a means of measuring total similarity, maps at fixed similarity levels are provided in order to document the regional heterogeneity. Identification of heterogeneities depends on the comparison of fixed PCSV values at a multitude of irregularly scattered sites. The PCSV methodology has been applied to the regional seismic data of Turkey.