Compliance and emission trading rules for asymmetric emission uncertainty estimates

Greenhouse gases emission inventories are computed with rather low precision. Moreover, their uncertainty distributions may be asymmetric. This should be accounted for in the compliance and trading rules. In this paper we model the uncertainty of inventories as intervals or using fuzzy numbers. The latter allows us to better shape the uncertainty distributions. The compliance and emission trading rules obtained generalize the results for the symmetric uncertainty distributions that were considered in the earlier papers by the present authors (Nahorski et al., Water Air & Soil Pollution. Focus 7(4–5):539–558, 2007; Nahorski and Horabik, 2007, J Energy Eng 134(2):47–52, 2008). However, unlike in the symmetric distribution, in the asymmetric fuzzy case it is necessary to apply approximations because of nonlinearities in the formulas. The final conclusion is that the interval uncertainty rules can be applied, but with a much higher substitutional noncompliance risk, which is a parameter of the rules.     

Benefits of dealing with uncertainty in greenhouse gas inventories: introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on the international political and scientific agendas. Growing international concern and cooperation regarding the climate change problem have increased the need for policy-oriented solutions to the issue of uncertainty in, and related to, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The approaches to addressing uncertainty discussed in this Special Issue reflect attempts to improve national inventories, not only for their own sake but also from a wider, systems analytical perspective—a perspective that seeks to strengthen the usefulness of national inventories under a compliance and/or global monitoring and reporting framework. These approaches demonstrate the benefits of including inventory uncertainty in policy analyses. The authors of the contributed papers show that considering uncertainty helps avoid situations that can, for example, create a false sense of certainty or lead to invalid views of subsystems. This may eventually prevent related errors from showing up in analyses. However, considering uncertainty does not come for free. Proper treatment of uncertainty is costly and demanding because it forces us to make the step from “simple to complex” and only then to discuss potential simplifications. Finally, comprehensive treatment of uncertainty does not offer policymakers quick and easy solutions. The authors of the papers in this Special Issue do, however, agree that uncertainty analysis must be a key component of national GHG inventory analysis. Uncertainty analysis helps to provide a greater understanding and better science helps us to reduce and deal with uncertainty. By recognizing the importance of identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in ongoing discussions regarding GHG inventories and accounting for climate change. The 17 papers in this Special Issue deal with many aspects of analyzing and dealing with uncertainty in emissions estimates.     

On the speciation of metals in the water column of a polluted estuary

The dissolved (<0.40 γm) fraction of water samples from Newark Bay, New Jersey was analysed for Zn, Cu and Pb content by differential pulse anodic stripping polarographic techniques. In the dissolved fraction, non-labile forms of Zn, Cu and Pb exist as shown by differential pulse anodic stripping voltammetry analysis on acidified samples and acidified-UV irradiated samples. The particulate fraction (>;0.40 μm) contains metals in the form of sulphides (Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn), oxides and oxyhydroxides (Si, Al, Fe, Cu, Ni, Sn), phosphate (Ca, Ce, La), clay minerals (Fe, Zn, Cu, Ti) and carbonaceous material (Fe, Cu, Zn) as demonstrated by X-ray microanalysis. The solid phases are likely present in colloidal form in the dissolved fraction of the water column as well. The forms of the metals in the water column are partially due to the resuspension of bottom sediments by dredging and natural processes, to sewage outfall and to natural geochemical processes.     

Local similarity of spectral and cospectral characteristics in the stable-continuous boundary layer

The local similarity theory, presented in the recent papers of Sorbjan (1986a, b), is extended by taking into consideration spectral (u, v, w, ) and cospectral (uw, w, u) densities in the stable-continuous boundary layer. The resulting universal expressions for spectra, cospectra and the reduced frequencies of their peaks are in agreement with empirical data from the Kansas 1968 surface-layer and Minnesota 1973 boundary-layer experiments. In addition, the universal functions for the structure parameters and the dissipation rates are also derived and shown to fit the empirical data well.On leave from Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw Polytechnic University, 00653 Warsaw, Poland.     

Quo vadis,hydrology?

This is an invited essay by the Dooge Medallist of the 2017 International Hydrological Prize. The paper reflects a broad perspective on hydrology, as a result of the author’s long experience. It is suggested that transgressing the traditional hydrological perspective, by increasing the scale of research, as well as interdisciplinarization have been, and are likely to remain, key drivers of the development of hydrology. Gaps in knowledge and research challenges are reviewed, and the interlinked areas of stationarity, extremes and projections for the future are discussed. Finally, after reviewing the achievements of Jim Dooge, examples of others following in his footsteps are presented.     

Statistics of shallow convection on Mars based on large-eddy simulations. Part 1: shearless conditions

Results of large-eddy simulations of shallow, quasi-steady, shear-less convection in the Martian boundary layer are presented and discussed. In the considered three cases, turbulence is forced by the radiative flux divergence, prescribed as given functions of height, and the strength of the surface heat flux. It is constrained by the temperature inversion at the boundary-layer top. The resulting convective boundary layer exhibits horizontal cellular structures. The presence of radiative heating causes dimensionless statistics of turbulence to depend on the parameter F, defined in terms of the integrated radiative and turbulent heating rates in the boundary layer.     

Modelling of the Evolving Stable Boundary Layer

A single-column model of the evolving stable boundary layer (SBL) is tested for self-similar properties of the flow and effects of ambient forcing. The turbulence closure of the model is diagnostic, based on the K-theory approach, with a semi-empirical form of the mixing length, and empirical stability functions of the Richardson number. The model results, expressed in terms of local similarity scales, are universal functions, satisfied in the entire SBL. Based on similarity expression, a realizability condition is derived for the minimum allowable turbulent heat flux in the SBL. Numerical experiments show that the development of “horse-shoe” shaped, fixed-elevation hodographs in the interior of the SBL around sunrise is controlled by effects imposed by surface thermal forcing.     

AFORS autonomous fibre-optic rotational seismograph: Design and application

We outline the research leading to development of the Autonomous Fibre-Optic Rotational Seismograph (AFORS) and describe the final version of the instrument. The instrument with linear changes of sensitivity keeps accuracy from 5.1 × 10⁻⁹ to 5.5 × 10⁻⁸ rad/s in the detection bandpass 1.66–212.30 Hz; it is designed for a direct measurement of rotational components emitted during seismic events. The presented system is based on the optical part of the fibre optic gyro construction where a special autonomous signal processing unit (ASPU) optimizes its operation for the measurement of rotation motions instead of the angular changes. The application of a newly designed telemetric system based on the Internet allows for a remote system control, as shown in an example of the system’s operation in Książ (Poland) seismological observatory.     

SphinX: The Solar Photometer in X-Rays

Solar Photometer in X-rays (SphinX) was a spectrophotometer developed to observe the Sun in soft X-rays. The instrument observed in the energy range ≈?1?–?15 keV with resolution ≈?0.4 keV. SphinX was flown on the Russian CORONAS–PHOTON satellite placed inside the TESIS EUV and X telescope assembly. The spacecraft launch took place on 30 January 2009 at 13:30 UT at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in Russia. The SphinX experiment mission began a couple of weeks later on 20 February 2009 when the first telemetry dumps were received. The mission ended nine months later on 29 November 2009 when data transmission was terminated. SphinX provided an excellent set of observations during very low solar activity. This was indeed the period in which solar activity dropped to the lowest level observed in X-rays ever. The SphinX instrument design, construction, and operation principle are described. Information on SphinX data repositories, dissemination methods, format, and calibration is given together with general recommendations for data users. Scientific research areas in which SphinX data find application are reviewed.     

Farewell,HSJ!—address from the retiring editor

On the eve of my retirement as co-editor of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) and Hydrological Sciences Journal (HSJ), I would like to take the opportunity to address the HSJ audience with some reflections about the journal and the publishing system.