Yielding mechanism of shallow mass movements in completely decomposed Norwood Tuff: the Zigzag Sign landslide,Utah

Over the past decade, land development activities on hillsides in northern Utah have resulted in a significant increase in landslide activity throughout the region. The majority of recent landslides are shallow and they occurred on cut gentle slopes especially during spring and early summer due to snowmelt induced elevated groundwater tables. The geologic material documented at numerous landslide sites is a soft gray-green completely decomposed Norwood Tuff. The present study addresses the mechanism of a shallow landslide in completely decomposed Norwood Tuff based on field, laboratory and numerical investigations. Detailed slope surface geometry obtained from laser-scan surveys together with strength and stress–strain parameters derived from laboratory triaxial tests on undisturbed samples of completely decomposed Norwood Tuff collected from the landslide site are employed with finite-element modeling to examine the effects of ground surface deformation patterns on the yielding behavior of the slide mass. The numerical results indicate a gradual retreat of the yield zone with progressive landslide deformation, which eventually becomes concentrated within the accumulation zone of the landslide, compared to a well-developed yield zone within the entire slide mass at the onset of landslide movement. Limit equilibrium stability analyses along potential sliding surfaces of extent limited within the yield zone of the displaced slide mass produce lower safety factors than an analysis based on the original sliding surface comprising the entire slide mass.     

Biostratigraphy and depositional environment evolution of the Asmari Formation at the Shajabil anticline,Iran

In the present research, biostratigraphy and paleoecology of the Asmari Formation at the Shajabil anticline, northwest Yasuj in the Izeh zone are discussed. The Asmari Formation at the studied area is Rupelian–Chattian to Burdigalian in age. In the study, 18 genera and 29 species of benthic foraminifera have been identified. Besides, the following biozones which reflect Rupelian–Chattian to Burdigalian age are identified for the Asmari Formation: (1) Lepidocyclina–Operculina–Ditrupa; (2) Archaias asmaricus–Archaias hensoni–Miogypsinoides complanatus; (3) Peneroplis farsenensis_Elphidium sp.14–Miogypsina sp.; (4) Borelis melo–Borelis melo curdica. Relying on fossils, Coral and Corallinacea have been detected depositional environment. The paleo-ecological factors are identified for the Asmari Formation at the study area: water salinity, 34 to more than 50 psu; water depth of 90 to 0 m; water temperature of 14 °C to more than 27 °C in a subtropical to tropical environment, oligotrophoic to mesotrophic conditions.     

Quantifying the uncertainty of semiarid flash floods using generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation

This paper aims to address the question of how the parameter uncertainty associated with a mixed conceptual and physical based rainfall-runoff model (AFFDEF) has influences on flood simulation of the semiarid Abolabbas catchment (284 km²), in Iran. AFFDEF was modified and coupled with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) algorithm to simulate four flash flood events. Analysis suggests that AFFDEF parameters showed non-unique posterior distributions depending on the magnitudes and duration of flash flood events. Model predictive uncertainty was heavily dominated by error and bias in soil antecedent moisture condition that led to large storage effect in simulation. Overall, multiplying parameter for the infiltration reservoir capacity and multiplying parameter for the interception reservoir capacity along with potential runoff contributing areas were identified the key model parameters and more influential on flood simulation. Results further revealed that uncertainty was satisfactorily quantified for the event with low to moderate flood magnitudes while high magnitude event exhibited unsatisfactory result.     

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of a travel-time distribution-based stream water electrical conductivity model

In this paper, we analyse the uncertainty and parameter sensitivity of a conceptual water quality model, based on a travel time distribution (TTD) approach, simulating electrical conductivity (EC) in the Duck River, Northwest Tasmania, Australia for a 2-year period. Dynamic TTDs of stream water were estimated using the StorAge Selection (SAS) approach, which was coupled with two alternate methods to model stream water EC: (1) a solute-balance approach and (2) a water age-based approach. Uncertainty analysis using the Differential Evaluation Adoptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm showed that: 1. parameter uncertainty was a small contribution to the overall uncertainty; 2. most uncertainty was related to input data uncertainty and model structure; 3. slightly lower total error was obtained in the water age-based model than the solute-balance model; 4. using time-variant SAS functions reduced the model uncertainty markedly, which likely reflects the effect of dynamic hydrological conditions over the year affecting the relative importance of different flow pathways over time. Model parameter sensitivity analysis using the Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS-TOOL) framework found that parameters directly related to the EC concentration were most sensitive. In the solute-balance model, the rainfall concentration C_rain and in the age-based model, the parameter controlling the rate of change of EC with age (λ) were the most sensitive parameter. Model parameters controlling the age mixes of both evapotranspiration and streamflow water fluxes (i.e., the SAS function parameters) were influential for the solute-balance model. Little change in parameter sensitivity over time was found for the age-based concentration relationship; however, the parameter sensitivity was quite dynamic over time for the solute-balance approach. The overarching outcomes provide water quality modellers, engineers and managers greater insight into catchment functioning and its dependence on hydrological conditions.     

Seasonal variability of aerosol optical properties in Darwin,Australia

This paper investigates the annual cycle in aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Angstrom exponent in Darwin, Australia, a coastal site in the Tropical Warm Pool where the major aerosol sources are biomass burning and sea salt. We have used radiometer measurements from the Tropical Western Pacific Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility for the period March 2002–June 2003. Strong seasonal cycles in AOT and Angstrom exponent were observed, peaking during the burning season (May–November). Investigation of the spectral dependence of optical thickness showed that the Angstrom formula can be satisfactorily fitted to the AOT data during the burning season but not on summer and autumn afternoons due to the presence of sea salt aerosols.     

Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of stomach cancer incidence in Iran, 2003–2010

Stomach cancer is the second most common cancer in Iranian men and the fourth most common cancer in Iranian women. The incidence rate of this cancer in Iranian men is almost 2.5 times that in women. The objective of this study was to investigate the trend of stomach cancer incidence rate in Iran in an 8-year time period (2003–2010) and also update the incidence estimates of stomach cancer. Data from a total number of 41,830 patients diagnosed with stomach cancer according to the International Classification of Diseases (C16) in 2003–2010 were analyzed. We used Bayesian spatial and Bayesian spatio-temporal models to study the relative risk and trend of stomach cancer incidence rate in Iran. Out of 41,830 stomach cancer registered patients, 72% were male. The average smoothed SIRs were 0.79, 0.82 and 0.78 for the general, female and male population, respectively. This shows a nearly stable incidence rate. The northwest of Iran had the highest incidence rate of stomach cancer. The trend of this rate was declining to the lowest rate in the southeast of the country. The estimated values of coefficient of the trend term for general, female and male population in this model were 0.0085, ? 0.018 and 0.0041, which indicate almost a stable fixed trend. The map of temporal trends also showed that although the incidence rate of this cancer is to some extent stable, in general, in the central and in the east of the country the incidence relative risk has increased over time. The prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection, Lower socioeconomic status and Iodine deficiency were speculated to be relevant factors for the high incidence rates of stomach cancer in the northwest of Iran. Preventive measures in the north and northwest of Iran could have an effect on controlling this cancer in these areas.     

Development of a Land Subsidence Forecasting Model Using Small Baseline Subset—Differential Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry and Particle Swarm Optimization—Random Forest (Case Study: Tehran-Karaj-Shahriyar Aquifer,Iran)

Doklady Earth Sciences - Land subsidence, as a dangerous environmental issue, causes serious damages to farms and urban infrastructure. In this regards, this research was conducted with aimed to...     

Application of CORSIKA Simulation Code to Study Lateral and Longitudinal Distribution of Fluorescence Light in Cosmic Ray Extensive Air Showers

In this paper, we used CORSIKA code to understand the characteristics of cosmic ray induced showers at extremely high energy as a function of energy, detector distance to shower axis, number, and density of secondary charged particles and the nature particle producing the shower. Based on the standard properties of the atmosphere, lateral and longitudinal development of the shower for photons and electrons has been investigated. Fluorescent light has been collected by the detector for protons, helium, oxygen, silicon, calcium and iron primary cosmic rays in different energies. So we have obtained a number of electrons per unit area, distance to the shower axis, shape function of particles density, percentage of fluorescent light, lateral distribution of energy dissipated in the atmosphere and visual field angle of detector as well as size of the shower image. We have also shown that location of highest percentage of fluorescence light is directly proportional to atomic number of elements. Also we have shown when the distance from shower axis increases and the shape function of particles density decreases severely. At the first stages of development, shower axis distance from detector is high and visual field angle is small; then with shower moving toward the Earth, angle increases. Overall, in higher energies, the fluorescent light method has more efficiency. The paper provides standard calibration lines for high energy showers which can be used to determine the nature of the particles.     

Simulating monthly streamflow using a hybrid feature selection approach integrated with an intelligence model

ABSTRACT

Streamflow prediction is useful for robust water resources engineering and management. This paper introduces a new methodology to generate more effective features for streamflow prediction based on the concept of “interaction effect”. The new features (input variables) are derived from the original features in a process called feature generation. It is necessary to select the most efficient input variables for the modelling process. Two feature selection methods, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and particle swarm optimization-artificial neural networks (PSO-ANN), are used to select the effective features. Principal components analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimensions of selected features. Then, optimized support vector regression (SVR) is used for monthly streamflow prediction at the Karaj River in Iran. The proposed method provided accurate prediction results with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.79 m³/s and determination coefficient (R² ) of 0.92.