GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using numerical risk factor bivariate model and its ensemble with linear multivariate regression and boosted regression tree algorithms

In this study, a novel approach of the landslide numerical risk factor(LNRF) bivariate model was used in ensemble with linear multivariate regression(LMR) and boosted regression tree(BRT) models, coupled with radar remote sensing data and geographic information system(GIS), for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) in the Gorganroud watershed, Iran. Fifteen topographic, hydrological, geological and environmental conditioning factors and a landslide inventory(70%, or 298 landslides) were used in mapping. Phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar data were used to extract topographic parameters. Coefficients of tolerance and variance inflation factor were used to determine the coherence among conditioning factors. Data for the landslide inventory map were obtained from various resources, such as Iranian Landslide Working Party(ILWP), Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Organisation(FRWO), extensive field surveys, interpretation of aerial photos and satellite images, and radar data. Of the total data, 30% were used to validate LSMs, using area under the curve(AUC), frequency ratio(FR) and seed cell area index(SCAI).Normalised difference vegetation index, land use/land cover and slope degree in BRT model elevation, rainfall and distance from stream were found to be important factors and were given the highest weightage in modelling. Validation results using AUC showed that the ensemble LNRF-BRT and LNRFLMR models(AUC = 0.912(91.2%) and 0.907(90.7%), respectively) had high predictive accuracy than the LNRF model alone(AUC = 0.855(85.5%)). The FR and SCAI analyses showed that all models divided the parameter classes with high precision. Overall, our novel approach of combining multivariate and machine learning methods with bivariate models, radar remote sensing data and GIS proved to be a powerful tool for landslide susceptibility mapping.     

Palaeoecology of well-preserved coral communities in a siliciclastic environment from the Late Pleistocene (MIS 7), Kish Island, Persian Gulf (Iran): the development of low-relief reef frameworks (biostromes) in increasingly restricted environments

Major changes in community structure and depositional relief of high-latitude coral communities in the southern Persian Gulf between marine isotope stage (MIS) 7 and the present day suggest that the area has become increasingly restricted. Corals and bivalves from outcrops on Kish Island, Iran, were identified in order to interpret the Late Pleistocene palaeoenvironmental setting. U/Th disequilibrium dating was used to constrain the ages of the stratigraphic units. During MIS 7, two coral-bearing sequences were deposited on what is now Kish Island. The lower sequence is dated as MIS 7.5 and changes laterally from an assemblage dominated by Cyphastrea sp. and Platygyra daedalea in the west to one characterized by branching Montipora in the east. By contrast, the upper sequence, dated as MIS 7.1, transitions from an assemblage dominated by platy Montipora in the west to a diverse assemblage of Platygyra and other faviids in the east. The assemblages of both sequences are within a marl matrix and bounded by thin lithified mollusc-rich layers. Corals and bivalves indicate that the sequences were deposited on gentle slopes in sheltered environments less than 20 m deep. The MIS 7 deposits may be classified as coral carpets or biostromes that developed a low-relief framework. During MIS 5, coral communities were no longer framework building and are now limited to an Acropora-rich layer of coral rubble that covers large parts of the island, and two small incipient reefs with sparse faviids. Similarities between the MIS 5 and modern nearshore coral communities suggest that the environmental conditions during MIS 5 were comparable to those of today. The late Pleistocene coral carpets and non-framework coral communities of the southern Persian Gulf may serve as models for coral biostromes in the fossil record, which formed under restricted environmental conditions such as elevated terrigenous input, high turbidity, and strong seasonal changes in temperature and/or salinity.     

Causes and consequences of recent floods in the Golestan catchments and Caspian Sea regions of Iran

In August 2001, the worst flash flooding event of the Caspian Sea regions in over two centuries claimed over 300 lives after a weekend of heavy rainfall and brought about a devastating disaster in the Mother-Soo catchment, province of Golestan, Iran. As a result of this event, a series of site investigation were carried out to identify the pertinent factors that led to a flood of this magnitude. This paper identifies the fundamental causes of the frequent floods and debris flow occurrence in the area prone to flooding and analyzes the main runoff mechanism of these events. The maximum observed 24-h rainfall depths and maximum peak discharges at the existing gauges were compared with the depths of rainfall and the peak values corresponding to the August 2001 flood respectively. For the majority of the rain gauges, the rainfall depth exceeded those of historical recorded events. In Golestan dam, an increase of 7.5 times the maximum value observed in the past 20 years was noted. The flood height was 10–15 m while passing through the middle subcatchment area of Golestan National Park. The preliminary evaluation indicates the existence of bare soil in the catchment, movable material, steep slopes, high rainfall intensity, deterioration of pasture and forest land, and inappropriate agriculture and development practices as well as climate change were the main factors for the occurrence and the extent of the August 2001 disaster. Finally, due to the likelihood of flooding and debris flow events in future, some countermeasures are proposed.     

Estimating width of the stable channels using multivariable mathematical models

Predicting behavior and the geometry of the channels and alluvial rivers in which the erosion and sediment transport are in equilibrium is one of the most important topics in river engineering. Various researchers have proposed empirical equations to estimate stable river width (W). In this research, empirical equations were examined and tested with a comprehensive available data set consisting of 1644 points collected from 29 stable rivers in various parts of the world. The data set covers a wide range of flow conditions, river geometry, and bed sediments. This data set is classified in two groups (W < 600 m and W ≥ 600 m) for presenting the new models. The new linear and nonlinear multivariable equations were fitted to these two groups, and the best models were selected by preliminary tests and diagnostic determined for each group. The determination coefficient of these models ranged from 0.87 to 0.96. The results show that the models presented in this paper are more accurate with respect to the previously presented models. In the second part, “Artificial neural networks,” perceptron was used and a new methodology for estimating stable channel width was developed. Comparison of the statistical methods presented in this paper and the results of perceptron neural network revealed preferential recent method.     

Seasonal variability of aerosol optical properties in Darwin,Australia

This paper investigates the annual cycle in aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Angstrom exponent in Darwin, Australia, a coastal site in the Tropical Warm Pool where the major aerosol sources are biomass burning and sea salt. We have used radiometer measurements from the Tropical Western Pacific Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility for the period March 2002–June 2003. Strong seasonal cycles in AOT and Angstrom exponent were observed, peaking during the burning season (May–November). Investigation of the spectral dependence of optical thickness showed that the Angstrom formula can be satisfactorily fitted to the AOT data during the burning season but not on summer and autumn afternoons due to the presence of sea salt aerosols.     

Hyrcanian forests conservation based on ecosystem services approach

Lush Hyrcanian mixed temperate forests are globally important ecosystems with considerable ecological and economic values and high variety of ecosystem services (ES). In this study, an ES-based approach is adopted to develop a spatial conservation framework for Gorganrood Watershed, northeastern Iran. In doing so, the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and trade-offs modeling tool was implemented to spatially quantify a collection of five ES including soil retention, habitat quality (as a proxy for biodiversity), water yield, food supply and carbon storage. These services were integrated into a single layer based on the Total Ecosystem Services (TES) index. By performing correlation analyses, the type and the strength of relationships between ES, TES index values and different land features were analyzed to reveal which land-use categories at what locations are more capable to provide bundles of ES. Accordingly, Hyrcanian mixed temperate forests in the southern sub-watersheds of the area were detected to have higher potential for simultaneous provisioning of multiple ES. In addition, we show that biodiversity hotspots and provision of other ES are highly correlated and thus that conservation of one group can be beneficial for the other. Our findings are particularly applicable in areas where complex network of land-uses and limited resources are major barriers against effective conservation of Hyrcanian mixed temperate forests.