Long-term seasonal rainfall forecasting: efficiency of linear modelling technique

Using the lagged (past) climate indices, including El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as input parameters and long-term spring rainfall as outputs, calibration and validation of the linear multiple regression (MR) models have been performed. Since Australian rainfall varies both temporally and spatially, the analysis on the linear MR models was performed on regional scale. These models show the capability of linear MR technique for long-term predictions of Western Australian spring rainfall. The emphasis was given to assess the statistical correlations between Western Australian spring rainfall and dominating large-scale climate modes. The efficiency of linear modelling technique was evaluated to predict seasonal rainfall forecasting. At the same time, the Pearson correlation (R), mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and Willmott index agreement (d) were used to assess the capability of MR models. The models which fulfilled the limits of statistical significances were used for the prediction of future spring rainfall using independent data set. The results indicate that during calibration periods maximum achievable correlations varied from 0.47 to 0.53 for the selected stations. In regard to predict peaks and troughs of rainfall time series, it was found that correlations between predicted and actual peaks varied from 0.82 to 0.94 and between predicted and actual troughs varied from 0.53 to 0.91.     

Structure and stratigraphy of Rumbli and Panjar areas of Kashmir and Pakistan with the aid of GIS

The project area lies in the southern part of the Hazara Kashmir syntaxis. The Hazara Kashmir syntaxis is an antiformal structure. The project area includes Rumbli, Namb, Chatrora, Chachan, Panjar, Barathian and Utrinna areas of Rawalpindi and Sudhnoti districts. The southeastern limb of the Hazara Kashmir syntaxis is imbricated along Punjal thrust, Main Boundary thrust and Riasi fault. The Jhelum fault truncates the western limb of Hazara Kashmir syntaxis. The core of syntaxis comprises of Himalayan molasse deposits. These molasse deposits represent the part of cover sequence of Indian plate. These Himalayan molasse deposits include the Early to Middle Miocene Kamlial Formation, Middle to Late Miocene Chinji Formation, Late Miocene Nagri Formation and Late Miocene Dhok Pathan Formation. The area is highly deformed resulting folds and faults. The major folds in the project area are the Panjar anticline, Barathian syncline, Barathian anticline, Rumbli anticline, Chatrora antiformal syncline and Namb syncline. The folds are either northwest-southeast trending or southwestnortheast trending. The folds are asymmetric, open, and gentle and close in nature. The folds are southwest, northeast or southeast vergent. The Jhelum fault truncates the northeast and northwest trending structures. The folds and faults are the result of northeastsouthwest or northwest-southeast Himalayan compression.     

Geospatial assessment of soil erosion intensity and sediment yield: a case study of Potohar Region,Pakistan

Estimation of spatial extent of soil erosion, one of the most serious forms of land degradation, is critical because soil erosion has serious implications on soil fertility, water ecosystem, crop productivity and landscape beauty. The primary objective of the current study was to assess and map the soil erosion intensity and sedimentation yield of Potohar region of Pakistan. Potohar is the rainfed region with truncated and complex topography lying at the top of the Indus Basin, the world’s largest irrigation networks of canals and barrages. Spatially explicit Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) Model integrated with Remote Sensing-GIS techniques was used for detecting/mapping of erosion prone areas and quantification of soil losses. The results show that the Potohar region is highly susceptible to soil erosion with an average annual soil loss of 19 tons ha^?1 year^?1 of which the maximum erosion (70–208 tons ha^?1 year^?1) was near the river channels and hilly areas. The sediment yield due to the erosion is as high as 148 tons ha^?1 year^?1 with an average of 4.3 tons ha^?1 year^?1. It was found that 2.06% of the total area falls under severe soil erosion, 13.34% under high erosion, 15.35% under moderate soil erosion while 69.25% of the area lies in the low (tolerable) soil erosion. Chakwal and Jhelum districts of the region are seriously affected by erosion owing to their topography and soil properties. The information generated in this study is a step forward towards proper planning and implementation of strategies to control the erosion and for protection of natural resources. It is, hence, necessary that suitable water harvesting structures be made to control water to prevent soil erosion and provision of water in the lean season in this region. Tree plantation and other erosion control practices such as strip cropping can also minimize soil erosion in this region.     

Earthquake triggered soft sediment deformational structures (seismites) in the Karewa formations of Kashmir valley–An indicator for palaeo-seismicity

The intermontane Karewa basin contains a wide variety of seismically induced soft sediment deformation structures, interpreted as seismites and occurs in 1300 m thick succession of upper and lower Karewas. The Karewa Formation of Kashmir valley are glacio- fluvial-lacustrine and aeolian loess of Plio-Pleistocene age. The soft sediment deformational structures occurs in various formations and members of Karewas and vary greatly in terms of morphology and pattern. The Karewa Formations were frequently confronted with recurrent seismic activities during differential upliftment of Pir Panjal and Zanaskar ranges which resulted in various deformation structures during their evolution and development. In the present study, an attempt has been made to relate the palaeo-seismicity events in Karewa formations with the deformed structures of various formations. The origin of these deformational structures have been interpreted and analyzed from the field evidences by applying paleo-seismological approach. During and after the deposition of Karewas different soft sediment deformation structures (seismites) like load cast, convolute lamination, pseudonodules, recumbent folds, sand dykes etc. were formed during liquefaction and triggered by tectonic impulsive events. The deformational structures are evidenced by their unique nature, distribution, association, behaviour and deformation, and can be used as vital indicators for palaeo-seismicity.     

Causes of landslide recurrence in a loess platform with respect to hydrological processes

Irrigation-induced landslide is a recurring problem in the Heifangtai loess platform of northwest China. The landslide sites are characterized by a concave topography. Numerical modeling indicates that the groundwater table at the past-landslide site rises more quickly than the other natural platform borders under irrigation conditions. This is consistent with the field observations that seepage of the groundwater appeared in the hollow is higher than that of lateral slopes. In order to investigate the response of soil behavior due to rise in groundwater table, stress-path tests were performed on undisturbed specimens. It has been observed that the increase in pore water pressure in loess can trigger soil liquefaction and eventually results in landslide. Hence, the concave past-landslide site is much more prone to landsliding, which contributed to the landslide recurrence.     

A spatio-temporal three-dimensional conceptualization and simulation of Dera Ismail Khan alluvial aquifer in visual MODFLOW: a case study from Pakistan

Dera Ismail Khan (DIK) is situated in the Lower Indus Basin of Pakistan. The land use has been changed in the canal command area due to irrigation activities near the Indus River. To check the current status and predict the groundwater levels in the area, the unconfined aquifer has been simulated in Visual MODFLOW for a period of 35 years, i.e., from 1985 to 2020. The 2900-km² area has been modeled with a grid of 500 by 500 m and the depth set to 100 m. The aquifer in the study area has been divided vertically and laterally into three and ten zones, respectively, for the characterization. Water wells and streams were used as the sinks and hydrologic boundaries, respectively. The model was successfully calibrated in steady and the non-steady state. The simulation revealed that the whole simulation can be divided into two phases, i.e., before and after the construction of the Chashma Right Bank Canal (CRBC), whereas the results were summarized in the form of water table depth maps and groundwater budget calculations. To determine the groundwater sustainability, a conjunctive use scenario has been employed to simulate the aquifer dynamics till 2020. The simulation revealed incremental drawdowns till the end.     

Analysis and farmers’ perception of climate change in the Kashmir Valley,India

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Analysis of climatic variables is important for the detection and attribution of climate change trends and has received considerable attention from researchers...     

Vulnerability and adaptability of wheat production in different climatic zones of Pakistan under climate change scenarios

Ten wheat production sites of Pakistan were categorized into four climatic zones i.e. arid, semi-arid, sub-humid and humid to explore the vulnerability of wheat production in these zones to climate change using CSM-Cropsim-CERES-Wheat model. The analysis was based on multi-year (1971–2000) crop model simulation runs using daily weather series under scenarios of increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (CO₂) along with two scenarios of water management. Apart from this, sowing date as an adaptation option to offset the likely impacts of climate change was also considered. Increase in temperature resulted in yield declines in arid, semi-arid and sub-humid zone. But the humid zone followed a positive trend of gain in yield with rise in temperature up to 4°C. Within a water regime, increase in CO₂ concentration from 375 to 550 and 700 ppm will exert positive effect on gain in wheat yield but this positive effect is significantly variable in different climatic zones under rainfed conditions than the full irrigation. The highest response was shown by arid zone followed by semi-arid, sub-humid and humid zones. But if the current baseline water regimes (i.e. full irrigation in arid and semi-arid zones and rainfed in sub-humid and humid zones) persist in future, the sub-humid zone will be most benefited in terms of significantly higher percent gain in yield by increasing CO₂ level, mainly because of its rainfed water regime. Within a CO₂ level the changes in water supply from rainfed to full irrigation shows an intense degree of responsiveness in terms of yield gain at 375 ppm CO₂ level compared to 550 and 700 ppm. Arid and semi-arid zones were more responsive compared to sub-humid and humid zones. Rise in temperature reduced the length of crop life cycle in all areas, though at an accelerated rate in the humid zone. These results revealed that the climatic zones have shown a variable intensity of vulnerability to different scenarios of climate change and water management due to their inherent specific and spatial climatic features. In order to cope with the negative effects of climate change, alteration in sowing date towards cooler months will be an appropriate response by the farmers.     

A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium

To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400.     

ANALYSIS OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE RECORDED IN LAHORE AND MIANWALI OVER THE PAST THREE DECADES

Surface air temperatures recorded over the past three decades at the weather stations located in Lahore (anindustrialized and densely populated city) and Mianwali (a small and sparsely populated city) were analyzed in order tostudy their climatic trend.Lahore,where meteorological data are recorded at two weather stations (city station and air-port station) indicates a cooling trend,of about 0.5℃ per record period of 1953—1992,for the airport station (31°31′N,74°24′E) and a slight warming trend,of about 0.2℃,for the city station (31°33′N,74°20′E) for the record period of 1950—1992.The Mianwali weather station (32°33′N,71°31′E) also shows a slight cooling trend,of about 0.4℃ per recordperiod of 1959—1992.The climatic variability at these stations was studied by computing seasonal and annual tempera-ture anomalies.The results are explained in terms of the local environmental conditions.