基于对流可分辨集合预报的阜宁龙卷概率预报研究

本文针对2016年6月23日江苏阜宁龙卷,设计了两组对流可分辨尺度集合预报:一组以ERA5再分析资料为初始和侧边界(CEFS_ERA5);另一组以NCEP GEFS为初始和侧边界(CEFS_GEFS),评估了两组试验对此次龙卷的预报能力。结果显示:两组对流尺度集合预报均有约半数以上成员能够再现龙卷超级单体的特征;2~5 km上升螺旋度(UH25)对本次龙卷超级单体有较好的预报指示意义。在上述分析的基础上,考虑位置预报偏差,提出了一种基于UH25的邻域龙卷概率预报产品,分析了龙卷概率预报技巧对关键参数邻域半径和UH25阈值的敏感性,CEFS_ERA5邻域半径取15个格点,UH25阈值取250 m²·s^-2最优;而CEFS_GEFS邻域半径取15个格点,UH25阈值取100 m²·s^-2最优。总的来说,邻域概率预报产品显著提升了对此次龙卷概率预报水平。     

Spatial pattern of Abies and Picea surface pollen distribution along the elevation gradient in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Xinjiang, China

In this study we examine the relationships between Abies and Picea abundance in surface pollen and sub-alpine coniferous forest (SCF) distribution, elevation and climate in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau using a large modern pollen data set consisting of 857 samples. Results indicate that Abies and Picea pollen are abundant in the southern and eastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, where SCF dominates the landscape. Pollen percentages of both Abies and Picea show a unimodal pattern with changes in elevation and climate, and their optima occur at elevations from 2500 to 4000 m a.s.l., mean annual temperature from −1 to 10 °C and mean annual precipitation from 450 to 850 mm. The optimal elevation of Abies and Picea pollen distribution decreases with latitude from c . 4000 m in the south (21–32°N) to c . 2500 m in the north (43–49°N). The spatial pattern of Abies and Picea pollen abundance is highly correlated with the modern distribution of these taxa, which is largely controlled by elevation and climate. These relationships could provide a practical reference for interpretation of fossil pollen data in terms of climate and elevation in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau.     

神秘感的强化、宗教感的弱化——论古代神怪小说的历史变迁

我国古代神怪小说起源于古代人们的鬼神信仰,鬼神信仰源至远古人类认识世界的神秘感觉和对鬼神的敬畏心理。佛教的传入和道教的产生以及两教的自神其教,进一步强化了人们的鬼神信仰。神怪小说从宣扬神秘到利用人们心理的神秘感自觉的虚构创作,神怪小说借神怪故事更多地表现了现实世界的情感。从神怪小说发展的历史看,作品的宗教感不断弱化,神秘感则得到不断强化,即使是那些现实性很强的作品也不例外。神秘感的强化说明了作家的创作更多关注读者的接受心理和审美习惯,是文学走向自觉的表现。     

体视化关键技术

体视化技术有着广泛的应用前景。对体视化的几种关键技术进行了分类综述，介绍了体数据的表示和分类，面绘制、体绘制和混合绘制各类典型算法的原理和特点。体数据的表示方式涉及到表示精度、存储量和处理时间之间的矛盾，要根据实际问题的具体特点和要求加以选择。体数据的分类是整个可视化算法中的一个关键步骤。只有对体数据进行准确的分类，才能经过处理得出合理的图像。近年来为加快绘制速度和提高图像质量提出了许多改进的体视化算法，并对部分改进算法进行了介绍。     

西沙群岛生物碳酸盐的成因和沉积:来自活体仙掌藻的证据

A recent island survey reveals that the Xuande Atoll and the Yongle Atoll in the Xisha Islands can be classified into one of two systems: the depleted atoll system and growth atoll system; the survey also indicates that the decreased area of several shoals is an unbearable burden for the Xisha Islands, of which the largest island area is 2.13 km2 and the minimum elevation is 1.4 m. According to a survey on the ecological characteristics of Halimeda in the Laolongtou breaker zone of Shidao Island in the Xisha Islands, the green and white living Halimeda are collected,the isotopic ages of 14 C contained in the Halimeda are shown to be 27 years and 55 years, respectively, and carbonate mainly occurs in five types, i.e., luster, segment, sand, sand grain, and marl in the formation. The Halimeda segments mainly provide the carbonate sediments of long-term biogenic deposits in the reef environment and the annual productivity per area is 60–100 g/m2; the characteristics of the microstructure of the Halimeda are analyzed, the aragonite raphide carbonate is deposited and enriched in the cortexes, medullas and cysts, and the Halimeda generally contain major elements such as C, O, Ca, Cl, Mg, K, Na, S and Al, and are rich in trace elements such as tellurium(Te), rhodium(Rh) and strontium. It is believed that the Halimeda grow slowly,including the biotic community of reef corals in the reef areas, thus they possess an environmental remediation capacity, but it takes much time to remedy the environment, and it is necessary to make the law to protect the diversity and vulnerability of the Xisha marine ecology, the ecology of the reef community and the island environment in a scientific way. As indicated in the survey, under the background of global warming and sea-level rise, the discovery of large amounts of Halimeda in the Laolongtou sea area is significant for the natural increase of the depleted atoll system of the Xuande Atoll, while the Halimeda segments represent the primary form of the fossil Halimeda, of which the species can be identified and preserved in great numbers under geological conditions. The Miocene was discovered in large amounts in the Xichen-1 well, therefore the study on the characteristics and mechanism of Halimeda carbonate sediments plays a pivotal role in the formation and construction of organic reefs in the South China Sea as well as oil and gas exploration.     

中国东海海平面长期变化与趋势研究

From the analyses of the satellite altimeter Maps of Sea Level Anomaly(MSLA) data, tidal gauge sea level data and historical sea level data, this paper investigates the long-term sea level variability in the East China Sea(ECS).Based on the correlation analysis, we calculate the correlation coefficient between tidal gauge and the closest MSLA grid point, then generate the map of correlation coefficient of the entire ECS. The results show that the satellite altimeter MSLA data is effective to observe coastal sea level variability. An important finding is that from map of correlation coefficient we can identify the Kuroshio. The existence of Kuroshio decreases the correlation between coastal and the Pacific sea level. Kurishio likes a barrier or a wall, which blocks the effect of the Pacific and the global change. Moreover, coastal sea level in the ECS is mainly associated with local systems rather than global change. In order to calculate the long-term sea level variability trend, the empirical mode decomposition(EMD) method is applied to derive the trend on each MSLA grid point in the entire ECS. According to the 2-D distribution of the trend and rising rate, the sea level on the right side of the axis of Kuroshio rise faster than in its left side. This result supports the barrier effect of Kuroshio in the ECS. For the entire ECS, the average sea level rose 45.0 mm between 1993 and 2010, with a rising rate of(2.5±0.4) mm/a which is slower than global average.The relatively slower sea level rising rate further proves that sea level rise in the ECS has less response to global change due to its own local system effect.     

GNSS-R海洋遥感监测技术综述

介绍了GNSS-R海洋遥感的发展过程、技术原理和理论模型,进一步研究了GNSS-R在海洋遥感各应用领域的主要研究内容,探讨了GNSS-R海洋测风、测高、海冰监测、溢油检测和移动目标探测的技术途径,概述了GNSS-R海洋遥感监测技术所涉及的反演理论和信息提取方法,并根据现有研究成果和海洋遥感的应用需要,提出今后需解决的关键技术和未来的发展方向。     

基于四种水产病原弧菌的简型芯片检测体系的优化

基因芯片技术在病原菌检测领域展现出良好的前景,本文依托水产病原菌基因检测芯片的检测体系,以水产常见病原弧菌的hsp60、toxR基因检测探针为研究对象,系统研究不同点样液配方、寡核苷酸探针浓度、荧光标记物质浓度、杂交温度、杂交时长对芯片杂交效果的影响,并进行相应优化。结果表明,杂交温度为60℃、杂交时长为2h、探针浓度为1μmol/L、Cy3标记的随机引物的用量为150pmol时,芯片的经济性、灵敏度、检测效率达到均衡;以0.1mol/L磷酸氢二钠和25%二甲基亚砜混合溶液作为点样液,效果较好。优化后的芯片对4种弧菌的检测没有出现交叉杂交现象,探针特异性达到100%;对溶藻弧菌全基因组DNA检测灵敏度为10fg,高出PCR方法约2个数量级。     

高桩挡板透空式防波堤消浪性能数值研究

以RANS方程为控制方程,基于有限体积法,在动量方程中添加源项,建立了具有造波‐消波功能的数值波浪水槽。利用建立的源项造波数值波浪水槽,模拟了高桩挡板透空式防波堤在规则波作用下的消浪效果,完整地再现了堤前堤后的流态,分析了挡板相对入水深度对透浪系数的影响。在与试验值及拉帕公式对比后发现,数模计算结果与试验值较接近,拉帕公式偏大。研究了堤顶相对宽度、相对水深、相对波高对透浪系数的影响并提出修正公式,修正公式与计算值和试验值吻合较好。