随机森林算法在全球干旱评估中的应用

干旱是发生频率最高,造成社会、经济损失和生态破坏最严重、最广泛的自然灾害之一,因此对干旱进行可靠、有效的评估十分重要.本文以月平均降水、月平均温度、月最高温度、月最低温度、土壤湿度、蒸散发、NDVI、叶绿素荧光等作为解释变量,以基于SPI的干旱等级作为目标变量,采用随机森林算法,以2007-2012年的数据作为训练数据...     

四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究

借鉴美国旧金山湾和香港地区的经验,提出了地质灾害监测预警试验区建设和研究思路。经过近两年的工作,初步建成了四川雅安地质灾害监测预警试验区。取得的阶段性成果主要有:(1)根据现场考察和试验区地质灾害数据库,统计研究了降雨型滑坡的几何特征;(2)建成了由20台遥测雨量计构成的降雨观测网,取得了2002年4月～2003年8月的降雨观测数据;(3)结合历史降雨资料分析,初步研究了雅安试验区的年、日、小时和十分钟最大降雨特征;(4)研制了斜坡岩土体含水量野外监测仪,取得了桑树坡试验点2003年4月～8月的实时监测数据;(5)自上而下分4层研究了斜坡岩土层含水量变化,发现了岩土层含水量变化对降雨过程的滞后性;(6)基于区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法(AMFP),利用地质灾害因子分析结果,分别计算了雅安试验区地质灾害"发育度"和"潜势度";(7)利用2003年8月23～25日的过程降雨观测资料,对雅安试验区在该降雨过程中发生的地质灾害事件进行了时空预警反演模拟研究,计算出的地质灾害"危险度"分布比较符合实际,"危险度"可以作为预警指数使用。     

江西省暖季重大短时强降水敏感性参数分析及概念模型

利用江西省2010-2016 年5-9 月1 597 个观测站逐小时降水资料,ERA Interim,Daily逐日4 次0.125°×0.125°再分析资料以及南昌和赣州探空资料,筛选出84 例重大短时强降水过程,并建立了5 种重大短时强降水概念模型:冷锋型、西南急流型、副高边缘型、暖切型和台风型,各型分别占比29％...     

基于桩间土滑动特性的合理桩间距研究

为研究抗滑桩合理桩间距以及荷载传递机制,首先以桩侧摩阻力为拱脚时的破裂面推导出以桩身为拱脚时的破裂角计算公式;然后引入对数螺旋线法确定桩间土体的滑移深度,以土拱效应为基础建立计算模型,求解考虑桩间土体滑移深度的合理桩间距表达式;最后对桩间净距的主要影响因素进行分析,包括滑坡推力、黏聚力、桩截面宽度以及高度。研究结果表明：由桩身和桩侧摩阻力同时作为土拱拱脚更符合实际受力状态,同时求得的土拱拱圈厚度和矢高小于以桩身为拱脚条件下相应值而大于以桩侧摩阻力为拱脚条件下的相应值,并且随桩埋深的增加而增大。     

复杂介质结构中折射界面的哈格多恩原理波前成像

在城市活断层探测中 ,浅层结构常常表现为强烈的非均匀性 ,界面横向强烈起伏 ,层内速度变化较大 ,传统的基于平界面均匀层模型的折射资料处理方法不能适用。研究开发能应用于复杂介质结构中折射资料处理的方法就显得十分必要。文中基于惠更斯原理 ,用波前扩张法对波场作正演计算 ,根据哈格多恩折射波前成像原理 ,在lecomte算法和Hole有限差分计算程序的基础上 ,开发出 1种复杂介质结构中折射资料的处理方法与软件 ,并用此方法处理了福州城市活断层折射探测试验中在义序完成的 2条折射剖面资料。结果表明 :探测区浅层为 3层结构 ,分别为盖层、强风化层和基岩。基岩顶界面的埋深约为 5 8～ 5 2m ,盖层P波速度变化较大     

Characteristics, Formation Periods, and Controlling Factors of Tectonic Fractures in Carbonate Geothermal Reservoirs: A Case Study of the Jixianian System in the Xiong’an New Area, China

As typical carbonate geothermal reservoirs with low porosity in northern China, the Jixianian System in the Xiong’an New Area is the main target for geothermal fluid exploration. The Jixianian System comprises the Gaoyuzhuang, Yangzhuang, Wumishan, Hongshuizhuang, and Tieling formations. The characteristics, formation periods, and controlling factors of reservoir tectonic fractures have been determined based on analyses of outcrops, cores, thin sections, and image logs. The results show that unfilled fractures account for over 87% and most tectonic fractures are high-angle shear fractures with angles concentrated at 40° to 70° and the fracture porosity increases linearly with an increased fracture aperture. Within the same tectonic setting and stress field, the lithology and layer thickness are the dominant factors governing the development of tectonic fractures, which are the most developed in dolomites and thin layers. Tectonic fractures were most likely formed in regions near faults or areas with larger stress gradients. The tectonic fractures in the carbonate geothermal reservoirs are roughly divided into four sets: NNW–SSE and NNE–SSW oriented ‘X’-conjugated shear fractures formed from the Paleozoic to the pre-Yanshanian Movement; NE–SW-oriented shear fractures, formed in episode B of the Yanshanian Movement, occurred at the Early Cretaceous; nearly E–W-oriented tensional fractures formed in the late Yanshanian Movement at the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene, and NEE–SW-oriented shear fractures formed during the Himalayan movement.     

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with mei-yu torrential rainfall over eastern China during June 2011

Surface rainfall and cloud budgets associated with three heavy rainfall events that occurred over eastern China during the mei-yu season in June 2011 were analyzed using 2D cumulus ensemble model simulation data.Model domain mean rainfall showed three peaks in response to three prescribed ascending motion maxima,primarily through the mean moisture convergence during the torrential rainfall period.Prescribed ascending motion throughout the troposphere produced strong convective rainfall during the first （9 June） and third （17-18 June） rainfall events,whereas strong prescribed ascending motion in the mid and upper troposphere and weak subsidence near the surface generated equally important stratiform and convective rainfall during the second rainfall event （14 June）.The analysis of surface rainfall budgets reveals that convective rainfall was associated with atmospheric drying during the first event and moisture convergence during the third event.Both stratiform and convective rainfall responded primarily to moisture convergence during the second event.An analysis of grid data shows that the first and third mean rainfall maxima had smaller horizontal scales of the precipitation system than the second.     

基于3D雕刻技术的岩体结构面剪切各向异性研究

相同形貌结构面重复性剪切试验和各向异性剪切试验一直是岩体结构面剪切力学特性试验研究中的难点,而该问题对于工程岩体的开挖力学响应和稳定性分析、评价与控制至关重要,问题的关键在于同一种岩石的结构面形貌的再现。为此,基于3D扫描和3D雕刻技术,重复制备了3种不同粗糙度的大理岩结构面试样,开展了不同法向应力下相同形貌结构面的各向异性剪切试验。试验结果发现：（1）同一法向应力、不同剪切方向下,相同形貌结构面的剪切强度、剪胀和剪切破坏特征均呈现明显各向异性;（2）结构面粗糙度各向异性很大程度上决定了剪切强度的各向异性,两者具有较好的正相关性;（3）随着法向应力的升高,结构面剪切特征的各向异性有逐渐弱化的趋势。同时,研究还充分表明,3D雕刻技术是系统开展结构面剪切力学特征各向异性研究的可靠手段,可在将来研究中发挥更为重要的作用。     

旋挖钻机岩石钻进试验

介绍了旋挖钻机在花岗岩地层进行的硬岩钻进试验中钻头的使用情况和遇到的问题.试验中,在抗压强度为100 MPa的硬岩中钻进速度可达10～30 mm/min.