China''''s First Exploration of Chukchi Sea and Its Adjacent Waters in the ArcticA Study on Lead Geochemistry of Atmospheric Aerosol

1ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＷｉｔｈｔｈｅｒａｐｉｄｄｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆｈｕｍａｎｓｏｃｉｅｔｙ ,ｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌｉｚａｔｉｏｎｈａｓｂｅｅｎｓｐｅｅｄｅｄｕｐ .Ａｓａｒｅｓｕｌｔ,ｍｅｔａｌｍｉｎｉｎｇａｎｄｍｅｔａｌｌｕｒｇｙ ,ｃｏａｌａｎｄｇａｓｏｌｉｎｅｃｏｍｂｕｓｔｉｏｎａｎｄｃｈｅｍｉｃａｌｓｐｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎｈａｖｅｇｉｖｅｎｏｆｆａｌｏｔｏｆＰｂ ｃｏｎｔａｉｎｉｎｇｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌｐｏｌｌｕｔａｎｔｓｗｈｉｃｈｈａｖｅｄｏｎｅｇｒｅａｔｈａｒｍｔｏｔｈｅｅｃｏｌｏｇ…     

0～6 h定量降雪(雨)预报技术及其在温哥华冬奥会中的应用

利用中尺度数值预报模式与雷达回波外推技术相结合,围绕SNOWV10项目的科学目标,在自动判识降水相态(雨、雪或雨雪混合物)基础上,利用雷达反演降雪(雨)关系,建立短时(0～6 h)定量降雪(雨)预报方法,并集成到GRAPES-SWIFT临近预报系统,为温哥华冬奥会提供实时场馆预报产品.从2010年2月冬奥会使用情况看,所建立的定量降雪(雨)预报技术,一定程度满足高纬度冬季降雪(雨)临近预报预警的需求,但降水(雨或雪)预报量级偏小,针对场馆的降水预报起止时间节奏偏差较大,各时次预报一致性有待改进.     

统计方法在数值模式中应用的若干新进展

目前,数值模式的准确性不断提高,天气预报和气候预测越来越依靠数值模式。数值模式不仅仅是求解描述大气运动和热力过程的方程组,其中也大量使用了统计方法,统计方法是数值模式的重要组成部分。本文对统计方法在数值模式中应用的最新进展进行了综述。首先,分析了统计方法在数值模式的资料同化、集合预报、次网格尺度物理过程参数化方案、数值产品统计释用、延伸期预报、模式检验等方面的应用。然后阐述了贝叶斯统计在数值模式中应用的新进展。最后,对统计方法在数值模式中应用的未来发展趋势进行了展望。     

Evaluation of methods of spatial interpolation for monthly rainfall data over the state of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Five deterministic methods of spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall were compared over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The methods were the inverse distance weight (IDW), nearest neighbor (NRN), triangulation with linear interpolation (TLI), natural neighbor (NN), and spline tension (SPT). A set of 110 weather stations was used to test the methods. The selection of stations had two criteria: time series longer than 20 years and period of data from 1960 to 2009. The methods were evaluated using cross-validation, linear regression between values observed and interpolated, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (r ²), coefficient of variation (CV, %), and the Willmott index of agreement (d). The results from different methods are influenced by the meteorological systems and their seasonality, as well as by the interaction with the topography. The methods presented higher precision (r ²) and accuracy (d, RMSE) during the summer and transition to autumn, in comparison with the winter or spring months. The SPT had the highest precision and accuracy in relation to other methods, in addition to having a good representation of the spatial patterns expected for rainfall over the complex terrain of the state and its high spatial variability.     

夏季北半球青藏高原对流层顶气压异常变动的物理机制研究

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,通过构造青藏高原(下称高原)对流层顶气压指数以及选取1992年和1998年这两个高原对流层顶气压正、负异常最大值年份进行对比分析,研究了北半球夏季高原对流层顶气压异常变动的物理机制。结果表明：(1)高原对流层顶气压异常变动与平流层和对流层气温及位势高度异常有密切联系,同时,与地表...     

具有地形坡折带的坳陷湖盆层序地层模拟

层序地层学研究已在陆相湖盆中取得良好的应用效果，在陆相湖盆的地层对比、沉积体系空间分布预测中发挥重要作用。坳陷湖盆在基底受压变形过程中，常在盆缘形成地形坡折带，以坡折为界，基底的沉降速率和原始地形坡度等控制层序发育的重要因素在其两侧均存在显著的差异，这在很大程度上控制了层序的发育模式和沉积体系的空间配置关系。通过对基底沉降速率、湖平面变化速率、沉积物充填速率、沉积物充填准则、岩相确定原则等数学模 型的建立，模拟了具有地形坡折带的坳陷湖盆的层序发育和相演化过程。实际资料与模拟结果的对比分析表明，模拟具有很好的效果。     

基于BP神经网络的溶洞规模预测及应用

复杂岩溶地区的溶洞发育规模受地质构造、地区岩性、地下水动力系统等多种因素的影响,具有高度复杂性和非线性的特征。通过对岩溶区溶洞的赋存规律研究,确定影响溶洞发育规模的控制因素进行定量处理,收集已探明溶洞的样本数据。为克服已有研究对溶洞发育规模定性描述的模糊性,文章利用BP（Back Propagation）神经网络对自组织、自适应特性对数据样本的非线性关系揭示的能力,实现对溶洞发育规模的预测,并基于MATLAB实现BP神经网络结构的设计、训练、预测,其结果表明:BP神经网络模型对溶洞规模预测的精度高、收敛性能好。      

Titanium Isotope Analysis of Igneous Reference Materials using a Double-spike MC-ICP-MS Method

Ti separation was achieved by ion-exchange chromatography using Bio-Rad AG 1-X8 anion-exchange and DGA resins. For high-Fe/Ti and high-Mg/Ti igneous samples, a three-column procedure was required, whereas a two-column procedure was used for low-Fe/Ti and low-Mg/Ti igneous samples. The Ti isotopes were analysed by MC-ICP-MS, and instrumental mass bias was corrected using a 47Ti-49Ti double-spike technique. The 47Ti-49Ti double-spike and SRM 3162a were calibrated using SRM 979-Cr, certificated value 53Cr/52Crtrue = 0.11339. Isobaric interference was evaluated by analysing Alfa-Ti doped with Na, Mg, Ca, and Mo, and results indicate that high concentrations of Na and Mg have no significant effect on Ti isotope analyses; however, Ca and Mo interferences lead to erroneous δ49/47Ti values when Ca/Ti and Mo/Ti ratios exceed 0.01 and 0.1, respectively. Titanium isotopic compositions were determined for 12 igneous reference materials, BCR-2, BHVO-2, GBW07105, AGV-1, AGV-2, W-2, GBW07123, GBW07126, GBW07127, GBW07101, JP-1, and DTS-2b. Samples yield δ49/47Ti (‰) of ?0.035 ± 0.022, ?0.038 ± 0.031, 0.031 ± 0.022, 0.059 ± 0.038, 0.044 ± 0.037, 0.000 ± 0.015, 0.154 ± 0.044, ?0.044 ± 0.018, 0.010 ± 0.022, 0.064 ± 0.043, 0.169 ± 0.034, and ?0.047 ± 0.025 (relative to OL-Ti, ±2SD), respectively; of which isotopic compositions of DTS-2b, JP-1, GBW07101, GBW07105, GBW07123, GBW07126, and GBW07127 are reported for the first time. Standard Alfa-Ti was analysed repeatedly over a ten-month period, indicating a reproducibility of ±0.047 (2SD) for δ49/47Ti, similar to the precisions obtained for geochemical reference materials.     

广东城市化及其发展模式的选择

在阐述广东城市化发展的现状基础上，分析了广东城市化发展过程中所存在的有明显阶段性、地区发展不均衡、小城市为主的城市化及城市化滞后于工业化等特征，并探讨了广东城市化模式的选择，指出广东城市化应该根据广东发展的实际和各地差异，走一条大、中、小城市融合、协调发展的城市化道路。     

红壤丘陵区农业开发中的生态环境效应及其调控

文章以江西余江县为例。通过实验研究，历史资料对比分析及邻近参照等方法。研究红壤区农业开发中的生态环境效应。农业开发引起的微观环境效应在于改变土壤水分及其运动状况，加速土壤物质迁移及降低土壤肥力质量；区域性效应是植被减少，农业面源污染，水土流失扩大及气候异常；全球性影响除区域集聚效应外，则是农业活动中产生的温室气体对全球气候的影响等，采取的调控对策主要是：保持合理开发，适当减轻土地压力，优化农业开发模式，更新农业耕作技术。强化环境整治与生态建设。