南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立过程及其与亚洲南部夏季风建立的关系

利用NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR(National Center for Atmospheric Research)再分析资料, 首先讨论了南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立日期的定义标准及其建立过程。结果表明, 南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立的日期平均为4月29日;合成的南亚高压建立前后的大气环流和非绝热加热的演变揭示出南亚高压建立始于菲律宾东南洋面上的反气旋环流分裂后, 西中心在中南半岛上空建立加强形成南亚高压, 该建立过程与中南半岛非绝热加热作用密切相关。在此基础上结合NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)的对外长波辐射(OLR)资料分析了南亚高压在中南半岛上空的建立与亚洲夏季风建立的关系。结果表明, 中南半岛夏季风建立和南亚高压在半岛上空建立几乎同时发生;南亚高压在中南半岛建立几天后, 东孟加拉湾夏季风开始建立;南亚高压建立大约20天后, 南海和菲律宾夏季风开始建立;大约一个月后, 西孟加拉湾、印度半岛和东阿拉伯海的夏季风建立。南亚高压在中南半岛上空的建立可视为亚洲夏季风建立的开始, 其对亚洲夏季风爆发有很好的指示意义。     

Seasonal prediction of June rainfall over South China: Model assessment and statistical downscaling

The performances of various dynamical models from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) Climate Center(APCC) multi-model ensemble(MME) in predicting station-scale rainfall in South China(SC) in June were evaluated.It was found that the MME mean of model hindcasts can skillfully predict the June rainfall anomaly averaged over the SC domain.This could be related to the MME's ability in capturing the observed linkages between SC rainfall and atmospheric large-scale circulation anomalies in the Indo-Pacific region.Further assessment of station-scale June rainfall prediction based on direct model output(DMO) over 97 stations in SC revealed that the MME mean outperforms each individual model.However,poor prediction abilities in some in-land and southeastern SC stations are apparent in the MME mean and in a number of models.In order to improve the performance at those stations with poor DMO prediction skill,a station-based statistical downscaling scheme was constructed and applied to the individual and MME mean hindcast runs.For several models,this scheme can outperform DMO at more than 30 stations,because it can tap into the abilities of the models in capturing the anomalous Indo-Paciric circulation to which SC rainfall is considerably sensitive.Therefore,enhanced rainfall prediction abilities in these models should make them more useful for disaster preparedness and mitigation purposes.     

Identification and analysis of high-frequency oscillations in the eyewalls of tropical cyclones

High-frequency oscillations, with periods of about 2 hours, are first identified by applying wavelet analysis to observed minutely wind speeds around the eye and eyewall of tropical cyclones(TCs). Analysis of a model simulation of Typhoon Hagupit(2008) shows that the oscillations also occur in the TC intensity, vertical motion, convergence activity and air density around the eyewall. Sequences of oscillations in these variables follow a certain order.     

福建省热带气旋暴雨突然增幅特征分析

利用2007—2013年福建省区域自动站和基本气象站小时降水观测资料,确定精细时空尺度上热带气旋暴雨突然增幅的阈值标准,分析暴雨突然增幅的时空分布特征及其与同期热带气旋之间的关系。结果表明:满足1 h、3 h和6 h暴雨突然增幅的热带气旋个例数随时间分辨率的降低而明显减少;3 h突增个例数主要出现在6—10月,且个例数和突增次数年分布总体呈上升趋势,突增次数日变化呈现"三峰型",高值区位于17—20时;暴雨突然增幅的热带气旋大多数在福建中南部沿海登陆,且不同的热带气旋中,强度较弱时发生突增次数较多,极值最大;暴雨突然增幅大多数发生在热带气旋登陆后24 h、距中心400 km内、西南方向,与登陆路径有关。对比分析了热带气旋登陆福建前后暴雨突然增幅的特征,发现登陆中部的热带气旋个数最多、暴雨突增次数也最多;热带气旋登陆后暴雨突增次数明显比登陆前多。     

Impact of the Vertical Velocity Field on Charging Processes and Charge Separation in a Simulated Thunderstorm

A three-dimensional(3D) charging-discharging cloud resolution model was used to investigate the impact of the vertical velocity field on the charging processes and the formation of charge structure in a strong thunderstorm. The distribution and evolution of ice particle content and charges on ice particles were analyzed in different vertical velocity fields. The results show that the ice particles in the vertical velocity range from 1 to 5 m s-1obtained the most charge through charging processes during the lifetime of the thunderstorm. The magnitude of the charges could reach 1014 n C. Before the beginning of lightning activity,the charges produced in updraft region 2(updraft speed 13 m s-1) and updraft region 1(updraft speed between 5 and 13 m s-1) were relatively significant. The magnitudes of charge reached 1013 n C, which clearly impacted upon the early lightning activity. The vertical velocity conditions in the quasi-steady region(updraft speed between –1 and 1 m s-1) were the most conducive for charge separation on ice particles on different scales. Accordingly, a net charge structure always appeared in the quasi-steady and adjacent regions. Based on the results, a conceptual model of ice particle charging, charge separation, and charge structure formation in the flow field was constructed. The model helps to explain observations of the"lightning hole" phenomenon.     

雷达拼图资料上中尺度对流系统的跟踪与预报

在中尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convective Systems,MCSs)自动识别基础上,利用相关法跟踪雷达回波(Tracking Radar Echoes by Cross-correlation,TREC)和面积重叠法完成新的跟踪预报方法.新方法利用TREC得到MCSs移动矢量,利用该矢量外推对应MCSs雷达回波.根据外推回波与相应回波实况,采用面积重叠法完成跟踪,同时利用移动矢量完成预报.采用4次强天气过程对算法进行检验,分析结果表明:(1)新方法能够有效实现MCSs跟踪与预报;(2)新方法得到MCSs移动速度相对稳定,不因为系统合并、分裂和生消出现速度大幅度波动现象,有效减小预报误差,6～60 min预报误差相对于原方法减小20％以上;(3)新方法虽然能提取得到较为稳定的系统移动速度,但不能得到系统的传播速度.原方法能得到系统的移动速度和传播速度合成,但提取速度不稳定,容易受到质心偏移的影响,预报误差较大.新方法在系统消亡期提取移动速度不稳定,导致跟踪丢失现象的发生,而原方法在系统合并与分裂时易出现跟踪丢失现象.     

南阳市1960—2013年高温日数变化特征及原因分析

根据国家气象信息中心气象资料室1960—2013年南阳市地面气象月报表的观测资料,采用线性回归、简单相关系数法、M-K突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,研究了南阳市高温日数的变化特征,结果表明:1960—2013年南阳市共出现788次高温日;出现高温日数最多的是2013年,为37天;1987年无高温日。南阳市高温日数6月份最多,占高温天气发生总次数的36.7%;9月最少,占总次数的2.2%。从1960—2013年高温日的逐年分布情况可以看出,54 a间高温日数整体呈下降趋势,倾向率为-1.59天/10a。南阳市年高温日数在20世纪70年代的降低是一突变,具体是从1971年开始。由南阳高温日数小波系数实部图可见,高温日数存在多重时间周期尺度上的嵌套复杂结构现象,包含了多个不同尺度的周期变化,南阳年高温日数变化存在3个明显的周期振荡,分别是10~12 a、26~28 a和50~51 a的尺度。从小波方差图中可以看出,12 a、28 a、50 a存在峰值,其中尺度50 a峰值最高,能量最大;其次是尺度12 a的。高温日数较多年比高温日数较少年6—8月500 h Pa平均环流场副高西伸脊点更偏西;高温日数较多年500 h Pa平均环流场更为平直,以纬向环流为主,不利于冷空气南下,因此多晴热天气。高温日数较少年环流场上华北地区波动幅度更大,冷空气和降水天气过程较多。1960—2013年5—9月降水量呈增加趋势,这也相应地减少了高温天气。1960—2013年5—9月南阳市日照时数一直处于下降趋势,日照时数的下降也使高温日数减少。     

A REGIONAL COUPLED AIR–SEA–WAVE MODEL: SIMULATION OF UPPER-OCEAN RESPONSES TO AN IDEALIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE

In this study a coupled air–sea–wave model system, containing the model components of GRAPES-TCM, ECOM-si and WAVEWATCH III, is established based on an air–sea coupled model. The changes of wave state and the effects of sea spray are both considered. Using the complex air–sea–wave model, a set of idealized simulations was applied to investigate the effects of air–sea–wave interaction in the upper ocean. Results show that air–wave coupling can strengthen tropical cyclones while air–sea coupling can weaken them; and air–sea–wave coupling is comparable to that of air–sea coupling, as the intensity is almost unchanged with the wave model coupled to the air–sea coupled model. The mixing by vertical advection is strengthened if the wave effect is considered, and causes much more obvious sea surface temperature (SST) decreases in the upper ocean in the air–sea coupled model. Air–wave coupling strengthens the air–sea heat exchange, while the thermodynamic coupling between the atmosphere and ocean weakens the air–sea heat exchange: the air–sea–wave coupling is the result of their balance. The wave field distribution characteristic is determined by the wind field. Experiments are also conducted to simulate ocean responses to different mixed layer depths. With increasing depth of the initial mixed layer, the decrease of SST weakens, but the temperature decrease of deeper layers is enhanced and the loss of heat in the upper ocean is increased. The significant wave height is larger when the initial mixed layer depth increases.     

IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF GUANGDONG IN JUNES

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of Guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr (1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of Guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season (April to June), the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator (MJO) on the June precipitation in Guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive (negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3 (phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over Guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of Guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of Guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in Guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.