A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

从地理信息系统到虚拟地理环境的认知转变

自20世纪60年代初以来,地理信息系统引领了地理信息的分析与服务。然而,由于地理学家对于地理过程开展多维模拟的需求,同时许多大型工程需要对于不同方案的后果事先开展模拟评估,为此中国学者们在世纪相交之际开始了对于虚拟地理环境的探索。本文从地理信息系统到虚拟地理环境的认识上的转变着手,分析了虚拟地理环境的演进过程、当前的阶段定位与挑战,着重探讨了虚拟地理环境研究的新态势：基于虚拟地理环境的地理空间认知研究、虚拟地理环境与实验地理学新方向、大数据背景下的虚拟地理认知实验方法和虚拟地理环境与地理知识工程,并给出最新研究思路。     

Geophysical constraints on mesozoic disruption of North China Craton by underplating‐triggered lower‐crust flow of the Archaean lithosphere

The mechanism of the disruption, both lithospheric thinning and oceanization of the commonly accepted long‐term‐stable Archaean craton, is still an open question. The available models, all imply a bottom to top process. With the construction of a 1660‐km‐long transect across the eastern North China Craton (NCC), we demonstrate that both the P‐wave velocity and density in the lowermost crust beneath the central section are significantly higher than in the corresponding parts of the south and north sections on the transect. These features are interpreted as geophysical signature of lower crustal underplating, which supplies sufficiently high gravitational potential energy to trigger lateral flow of the lower crust. This magma underplating‐triggered bilateral lower crust flow may facilitate the lithospheric thinning by means of asthenosphere upwelling and decompression melting, which infill the gap produced by the lower crust flow. The underplating‐triggered lower crustal flow can provide an alternative mechanism to explain the NCC lithosphere disruption, which highlights the crustal feedback to Archaean lithosphere disruption, from top to bottom.     

Thermal equation of state of natural tourmaline at high pressure and temperature

Synchrotron-based in situ angle-dispersive X-ray diffraction experiments were conducted on a natural uvite-dominated tourmaline sample by using an external-heating diamond anvil cell at simultaneously high pressures and temperatures up to 18 GPa and 723 K, respectively. The angle-dispersive X-ray diffraction data reveal no indication of a structural phase transition over the P–T range of the current experiment in this study. The pressure–volume–temperature data were fitted by the high-temperature Birch–Murnaghan equation of state. Isothermal bulk modulus of K ₀ = 96.6 (9) GPa, pressure derivative of the bulk modulus of \(K_{0}^{\prime } = 12.5 \;(4)\), thermal expansion coefficient of α ₀ = 4.39 (27) × 10^?5 K^?1 and temperature derivative of the bulk modulus (?K/?T) _P  = ?0.009 (6) GPa K^?1 were obtained. The axial thermoelastic properties were also obtained with K _a0 = 139 (2) GPa, \(K_{a0}^{\prime }\) = 11.5 (7) and α _a0 = 1.00 (11) × 10^?5 K^?1 for the a-axis, and K _c0 = 59 (1) GPa, \(K_{c0}^{\prime }\) = 11.4 (5) and α _c0 = 2.41 (24) × 10^?5 K^?1 for the c-axis. Both of axial compression and thermal expansion exhibit large anisotropic behavior. Thermoelastic parameters of tourmaline in this study were also compared with that of the other two ring silicates of beryl and cordierite.     

大别山晓天—磨子潭韧性剪切带主要造岩矿物的变形与应变分析

大别山北缘的晓天—磨子潭韧性剪切带主体发育在北大别片麻岩之上,具有近水平左行剪切的运动学特征;剪切带自中心向外围依次发育超糜棱岩、糜棱岩、初糜棱岩、变形片麻岩(片岩)、围岩,发生变形的主要造岩矿物包括石英、长石、角闪石、云母等。岩石有限应变测量和矿物颗粒形态学优选方位统计显示,随着糜棱岩化程度的加强,主要造岩矿物平均粒径均呈递减变化;矿物长短轴所反映的应变均呈加强的趋势,矿物长轴与X的锐夹角皆逐渐变小;以90°为一个区间统计的矿物长轴定向显示,变形矿物的长轴在钝角区间(顺剪切方向)有优选,以15°为一个区间统计的矿物长轴定向显示,矿物定向存在一定对称性,即在锐夹角区的优选区间和钝夹角区的优选区间互为补角区间。此外,云母矿物的应变在不同样品中均显示最大,其次为石英、角闪石、长石;随着构造岩类型的不同,应变的变化趋势最明显的也是云母,其次为石英,角闪石和长石变化不明显;矿物长轴与X轴夹角的统计表明,云母、角闪石长轴与X轴锐夹角比石英、长石均偏小。矿物的变形还表明,指示剪切带剪切方式最明显的是云母类矿物,尤其是云母鱼构造,是判定运动方向的可靠标志,其次是角闪石,较之斜长石更易形成不对称残斑构造;综合矿物在剪切带中的含量和分布,结构特点,以及对剪切带应变反映的"灵敏性"等方面的因素,石英矿物最能表现剪切带的整体应变状态,是较为理想的应变标志矿物。上述结果表明不同矿物随变形环境的渐变,在粒径、应变、形态学优选等方面具有较统一的变化,即不同变形矿物在反映剪切带的剪切作用方式、应力—应变等特征时是较为一致的;同时不同矿物在上述变化中又表现出区别于其他矿物的各自特点,这反映了矿物自身的晶体结构、结晶形态、力学性质、变形习性等特性。所以,对于研究韧性剪切带而言,针对不同研究内容,要综合不同矿物的变形情况来选取合适的变形矿物及其变形组构来研究,才能得到更准确的结果和更合理的解释。     

Weak ENSO Asymmetry Due to Weak Nonlinear Air–Sea Interaction in CMIP5 Climate Models

State-of-the-art climate models have long-standing intrinsic biases that limit their simulation and projection capabilities.Significantly weak ENSO asymmetry and weakly nonlinear air–sea interaction over the tropical Pacific was found in CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5) climate models compared with observation. The results suggest that a weak nonlinear air–sea interaction may play a role in the weak ENSO asymmetry. Moreover, a weak nonlinearity in air–sea interaction in the models may be associated with the biases in the mean climate—the cold biases in the equatorial central Pacific. The excessive cold tongue bias pushes the deep convection far west to the western Pacific warm pool region and suppresses its development in the central equatorial Pacific. The deep convection has difficulties in further moving to the eastern equatorial Pacific, especially during extreme El Ni o events, which confines the westerly wind anomaly to the western Pacific. This weakens the eastern Pacific El Ni o events, especially the extreme El Ni o events, and thus leads to the weakened ENSO asymmetry in climate models. An accurate mean state structure(especially a realistic cold tongue and deep convection) is critical to reproducing ENSO events in climate models. Our evaluation also revealed that ENSO statistics in CMIP5 climate models are slightly improved compared with those of CMIP3. The weak ENSO asymmetry in CMIP5 is closer to the observation. It is more evident in CMIP5 that strong ENSO activities are usually accompanied by strong ENSO asymmetry, and the diversity of ENSO amplitude is reduced.     

Anomalous Western Pacific Subtropical High during Late Summer in Weak La Nia Years: Contrast between 1981 and 2013

Both 1981 and 2013 were weak La Niña years with a similar sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Pacific, yet the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) during August exhibited an opposite anomaly in the two years. A comparison indicates that, in the absence of a strong SST anomaly in the tropics, the cold advection from Eurasian high latitudes and the convection of the western Pacific warm pool play important roles in influencing the strength and position of the WPSH in August. In August 1981, the spatial pattern of 500 hPa geopotential height was characterized by a meridional circulation with a strong ridge in the Ural Mountains and a deep trough in Siberia, which provided favorable conditions for cold air invading into the lower latitudes. Accordingly, the geopotential height to the north of the WPSH was reduced by the cold advection anomaly from high latitudes, resulting in an eastward retreat of the WPSH. Moreover, an anomalous cyclonic circulation in the subtropical western Pacific, excited by enhanced warm pool convection, also contributed to the eastward retreat of the WPSH. By contrast, the influence from high latitudes was relatively weak in August 2013 due to a zonal circulation pattern over Eurasia, and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation induced by suppressed warm pool convection also facilitated the westward extension of the WPSH. Therefore, the combined effects of the high latitude and tropical circulations may contribute a persistent anomaly of the WPSH in late summer, despite the tropical SST anomaly being weak.     

塔中人工绿地与自然沙面辐射平衡对比研究

使用2014年5—9月塔克拉玛干沙漠腹地塔中大气环境观测实验站地表辐射观测资料,分析了塔中人工绿地与自然沙面在各种典型天气条件下的辐射分量特征差异。结果表明:人工绿地与自然沙面辐射平衡各分量最小值均出现在夜间,最大值出现在中午前后,总辐射和反射辐射日最大值出现在12:00;大气长波辐射日变化振幅较小,地面长波辐射日变化呈现不对称分布。晴天,人工绿地与自然沙面总辐射和净辐射变化幅度较小,自然沙面总辐射高于人工绿地;阴天,地面长波辐射略有减小,绿地大气长波辐射略有增加,总辐射和反射辐射减少,净辐射的变化受总辐射的影响,但减弱幅度小于总辐射;沙尘暴天气下,沙尘对辐射各分量影响明显,辐射各分量日变化不规则,人工绿地与自然沙面总辐射被明显削弱,日变化波动大。     

北淮阳构造带的属性及其对板块缝合线位置的启示

北淮阳构造带为一条沿大别造山带北麓展布的狭长构造带,是华北板块与扬子板块碰撞造山的产物,其物源组成、构造属性等研究内容是揭示南北板块在中国东部的大地构造单元格局以及时空演化的关键信息。结合构造变形、岩石学、岩石地球化学、锆石U-Pb年代学等方法对北淮阳前中生代岩石地层单元苏家河群/卢镇关群和信阳群/佛子岭群进行对比分析,就其构造属性形成这样的基本认识:北淮阳构造带是杨子板块向华北板块俯冲-碰撞的结合带,其物质组成具有双源性-主体部分来源于杨子板块,由代表了杨子板块北缘基底的晚元古代苏家河群(784±19Ma)/卢镇关群(756±12Ma)和杨子板块被动陆缘复理石沉积建造-中泥盆世至晚泥盆世早期的信阳群南湾组组成,后者相当于商丹缝合带以南的刘岭群;信阳群龟山组亲缘于华北板块并构成华北板块南缘的弧前楔形沉积体,是沿商丹缝合带分布的桃花铺弧前楔形沉积体的东延。佛子岭群总体可与信阳群相连,全岩成分显示,佛子岭群沉积构造环境既有活动大陆边缘,又有被动大陆边缘。由于中生代以来多期构造变形叠加(至少三期),佛子岭群岩石地层单元的叠置关系被改造或重置,使其缺少"构造解体"的证据,而无法在构造单元上细分。对于两大板块之间的缝合带位置,笔者认为:商丹缝合带进入北淮阳构造带后,应沿着北淮阳的北界,与龟山-梅山-六安-磨墩水库一线延伸的断裂带相连。