最小二乘定权方法对流动重力计算结果的影响

在处理流动重力观测数据时,采用最小二乘方法解算由权系数和观测值组成的超定方程组,得到最优权值,并利用最优权计算重力值。结果表明,等权方法计算得到的结果点值精度不高,但包含了较全的重力异常地震分析预报信息;不等权方法计算得到的结果点值精度较高,但削弱了有用的重力异常地震分析预报信息;最小二乘方法计算得到的结果不但有较高的点值精度,对M_S4.0及以上地震的分析预报效果也最优。     

ArcGIS Model Builder在历史数据处理中的应用

在智慧潍坊时空大数据与云平台的建设中,需要将历史地形图数据进行数据入库。与传统的地形图人工内业数据入库处理方法相比,基于ArcGISModelBuilder技术对数据处理过程建模,对数据进行自动化处理的做法在作业中具有极大的优势。利用该工具创建了房屋、高程点、控制点等几种地物的自动化处理模型,实现了多种地形图要素的自动化处理,简化了传统的地形图入库作业流程,提高了数据处理效率。该文以潍坊市历史地形图为例,验证了该方法在保证数据质量的同时,能够有效提高数据的生产效率,为历史地形图数据的生产入库提供了切实可行的操作思路和实现工具,同时可为其他地区历史地形图数据入库工作提供参考。     

Modelling the flexural buckling failure of stratified rock slopes based on the multilayer beam model

The buckling failure of stratified rock slopes intersected by a set of steep discontinuities that are approximately parallel to the slope surface is frequently encountered while constructing railways and roadways in mountainous areas. In this study, an analytical approach based on the energy equilibrium principle is presented to solve the flexural buckling stability of stratified rock slopes within the framework of multilayer beam theory. The generalized HoekBrown failure criterion is introduced to reflect the influences of slope size(scale effects) on the buckling stability. Subsequently, numerical and physical modellings from previous literatures are employed to validate the proposed approach. Furthermore, a practical case of Bawang Mountain landslide is also used for the comparative analysis. The study shows that the present analytical approach is capable to provide a more reasonable assessment for the buckling failure of stratified rock slopes, compared with several existing analytical approaches. Finally, a detailed parametric study is implemented, and the results indicate that the effects of rock strength, rock deformation modulus, geological strength index, layer thickness and disturbance degree of rock mass on the buckling failure of stratified rock slopes are more significant than that of rock type and slope angle.     

Isotopic evidence for the moisture origin and influencing factors at Urumqi Glacier No.1 in upstream Urumqi River Basin,eastern Tianshan Mountains

The stable isotope has been extensively applied as an effective tracer especially in precipitation. In glacierized area of arid northwest China, temperature is widely considered to be a major factor affecting isotopes in precipitation, while the influences of precipitation amount, relative humidity and other meteorological parameters are still not clear. Based on analyses on stable isotope values of water samples and NCEP/NCAR(National Centers of Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA) re-analysis data, the moisture source and characteristics of isotopes in the precipitation, meltwater and river water isotopes at Urumqi Glacier No.1 of the upstream Urumqi River Basin, eastern Tianshan Mountains from spring to autumn during four years(from 2008 to 2011) was studied. Results indicated that meltwater are the main source of water for the upper Urumqi River. Seasonal variation of δ~(18) O in precipitation demonstrated that δ18 O was more enriched in summer and depleted in spring and autumn. Temperature was positively correlated with isotopes, while precipitation amount and relative humidity was negatively correlated with isotopes. The water vapor was affected by westerly air mass and regional water vapor cycle. Meanwhile, back trajectory clustering analyses showed that the moisture mainly from Europe and central Asia. The moisture was more likely to be locally sourced with the ratio was 46.8%～52.1%.     

Static Optimization of a Compliant Vertical Access Riser

The compliant vertical access riser(CVAR) is a new riser concept with good compliance; it can significantly reduce operating costs by eliminating the need for additional machines to operate wells directly on the platform. In this study, we determined the optimal riser parameters in terms of the stress and riser weight by optimizing the CVAR, and we compared the optimization results. A two-dimensional nonlinear static CVAR model was deduced according to the principles of virtual work and variation, and the model was verified using MATLAB. Design of experiments and Kriging method were used to reduce the number of sample calculations and improve the modeling accuracy. An appropriate selection of the multi-objective optimization problem(MOP) and the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm helped to optimize the CVAR design. The non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II was used to solve the Pareto frontier of the optimization model in order to provide decision makers with more choices for the optimization results. After optimizing the riser parameters, the geometry of the riser was smoother, and the stress and stress differences were greatly reduced; the maximum equivalent stresses at the top and bottom were reduced by 36.6% and 44%, respectively. In addition, the stress difference in the buoyancy block area was reduced by 20.9%, and the weight of the riser was increased significantly by 28.1%.     

蒙古高原NDVI的空间格局及空间分异

基于GIMMS NDVI多年最大值合成数据,采用空间统计学方法,利用Moran’ s I系数分析、半变异函数分析以及分维分析等3种方法,对蒙古高原NDVI空间格局及空间分异特征进行研究。结果表明:(1)蒙古高原NDVI的空间分布在全局范围内呈现正的空间自相关,相似的NDVI值倾向于聚集在一起,这表明蒙古高原植被具有较好的整体性,地表植被无显著破碎化;(2)蒙古高原NDVI的空间分布虽然同时受到结构性因子和随机性因子的影响,但结构性因子占据绝对控制地位,结构性因子引起的空间变异占系统总变异的88.7%;(3)蒙古高原NDVI存在各向异性的分布特征,具有相似NDVI值的像元主要沿着西北-东南方向展布;全局NDVI空间自相关距离约为1178km,西北-东南方向与东北-西南方向的空间自相关距离比可达2.4 ∶ 1。     

下扬子复杂构造区超高压含气层的发现及油气富集关键要素

下扬子地区的构造复杂性使该地区油气勘探存在极大的难度和风险,如何在复杂构造区取得油气勘探突破是近年关注的焦点。2019年皖为页1井在下扬子无为凹陷三叠系周冲村组首次发现2套异常高压含天然气层,最高地层压力系数达1.9,取得下扬子油气调查的重大突破性进展,为下扬子油气勘探困局打开了一扇窗口。基于该超压含气层的新发现,综合研究表明,无为凹陷天然气富存得益于4个关键控制要素的有机组合：①深层稳定基底;②对冲过渡带原地体;③深水裂陷黑色页岩有利相带;④多套膏盐有利封盖等。为无为凹陷提供了稳定构造背景、良好构造保存、有利烃源岩及优质盖层等条件。上述地质要素同样有利于该凹陷二叠系页岩气富集,由此提出了构造复杂区三叠系常规天然气与二叠系页岩气一井双探的新思路。上述关键4个要素在下扬子区域上的配置关系显示,望江凹陷与无为凹陷具有相似的地质条件,是下一步油气勘探的首选有利区。     

环渤海区域及邻区现今地壳构造运动形变特征分析

将环渤海区域划分为5个次级块体,利用整体旋转与线性应变模型分析2009~2014年中国大陆构造环境监测网络的GPS对地观测速度场数据,得到相对于欧亚板块0.5°×0.5°的水平运动速度场和应变场。分析形变速度场和应变场的空间变化发现,环渤海区域整体上呈现0.25×10^-9/a的NW-SE 111.3°的双向趋势性扩张运动,太行块体、山西块体分别呈NW-SE 116.3°、NW-SE 130°的微弱扩张运动,胶辽块体、冀鲁块体和阴山-燕山块体分别存在NW-SE 144.3°、NE-SW 39.5°和NW-SE 155.6°的微弱压缩运动,其中太行块体的扩张运动量级相对于其他次级块体较大。尽管环渤海区域内部各次级块体的形变在空间上存在以上差异,但整体上环渤海区域主压应变轴方向基本为NEE-SWW,主张应变轴方向为NNW-SSE,且主压应变轴走向为NE 47.70°～89.74°,与利用地球物理方法得到的主压应变轴优势方向大体一致,表明环渤海区域现今地壳运动相对稳定。     

近10年中国大气PM10污染时空格局演变

为分析近10 年来中国PM₁₀污染时空格局演变,运用统计学和GIS 方法对2002-2012 年PM₁₀监测数据进行分析,结果表明：① 地级及以上城市ρ（PM₁₀）年均值由0.130 mg·m^-3下降至0.076 mg·m^-3,达标城市比例由37.6%上升至92.0%;环保重点城市ρ（PM₁₀）日均值超标天数比例由24.7%下降至7.0%。② 12 月份PM₁₀污染最重,其次为1 月和11 月;8 月份污染最轻,其次为7 月和9 月。③ PM₁₀的重污染区域明显减小,由集中连片分布变为零星点状分布。但空间格局未发生明显变化,北方尤其是西北、华北地区及山东、江苏、湖北一直是PM₁₀污染相对严重地区。④ 北方地区PM₁₀污染重于南方地区,两者的差异主要发生在北方采暖期（1-4 月及11-12 月）。⑤ PM₁₀污染的改善主要体现在重污染城市的改善,1/10 左右的重污染城市对降低全国PM₁₀平均浓度的贡献约占1/3,而清洁城市PM₁₀污染则有加重趋势。⑥ 环保重点城市污染天气以轻度污染为主,占全部污染天数的80.4%。受沙尘天气影响,3、4 月份发生严重污染天气的比例较高。     

国内外页岩气研究进展及山东省页岩气资源潜力

当前国际能源供需矛盾突出,能源问题日益成为各国关注的焦点,页岩气资源勘查开发备受世界瞩目;全球页岩气资源非常丰富,主要分布在北美、中亚和中国、拉美、中东和北非、前苏联地区;近年来随着开采和利用技术的不断进步,美洲、欧洲、亚洲国家对页岩气的勘查开发正在形成热潮。中国页岩气资源丰富,对页岩气的区域勘查研究越来越多,取得了不错的成果,但总体上中国页岩气的研究和勘查尚处于起步阶段,同时中国的开发技术与国外相比还存在较大的差距。结合山东省不同类型富含有机质泥页岩的具体特点和国内外页岩气勘查经验,初步认为山东省具有一定的页岩气形成条件,山东省页岩气远景区地层主要为新生代古近纪济阳群和五图群及官庄群,中生代早白垩世莱阳群,古生代石炭—二叠纪月门沟群和石盒子群;在综合考虑页岩的赋存层位、页岩成气潜力和页岩气开发可行性的基础上,提出了山东省页岩气潜力区为:济阳坳陷区、临清坳陷区、胶莱坳陷区和黄县(龙口)凹陷以及鲁西南潜隆起区,其中济阳-临清坳陷地区页岩气潜力较好。