Landslide susceptibility mapping using an integrated model of information value method and logistic regression in the Bailongjiang watershed,Gansu Province,China

Bailongjiang watershed in southern Gansu province, China, is one of the most landslide-prone regions in China, characterized by very high frequency of landslide occurrence. In order to predict the landslide occurrence, a comprehensive map of landslide susceptibility is required which may be significantly helpful in reducing loss of property and human life. In this study, an integrated model of information value method and logistic regression is proposed by using their merits at maximum and overcoming their weaknesses, which may enhance precision and accuracy of landslide susceptibility assessment. A detailed and reliable landslide inventory with 1587 landslides was prepared and randomly divided into two groups, (i) training dataset and (ii) testing dataset. Eight distinct landslide conditioning factors including lithology, slope gradient, aspect, elevation, distance to drainages, distance to faults, distance to roads and vegetation coverage were selected for landslide susceptibility mapping. The produced landslide susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and prediction rate curves. The validation results show that the success rate and the prediction rate of the integrated model are 81.7 % and 84.6 %, respectively, which indicate that the proposed integrated method is reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map and the results may be used for landslides management and mitigation.     

Applications of variogram modeling to electrical resistivity data for the occurrence and distribution of saline groundwater in Domail Plain,northwestern Himalayan fold and thrust belt,Pakistan

This paper studies electrical resistivity dataset acquired for a groundwater study in the Domail Plain in the northwestern Himalayan section of Pakistan. Through a combination of geostatistical analysis, geophysical inversion and visualization techniques, it is possible to re-model and visualize the single dimension resistivity data into 2D and 3D space. The variogram models are utilized to extend the interpretation of the data and to distinguish individual lithologic units and the occurrence of saline water within the subsurface. The resistivity data has been calibrated with the lithological logs taken from the available boreholes. As such the alluvial system of the Domail Plain has formed during episodes of local tectonic activity with fluvial erosion and deposition yielding coarse sediments with high electrical resistivities near to the mountain ranges and finer sediments with medium to low electrical resistivities which tend to settle in the basin center. Thus a change is depositional setting happened from basin lacustrine environment to flash flooding during the Himalayan orogeny. The occurrence of rock salt in the northern mountains has imparted a great influence on the groundwater quality of the study area. The salt is dissolved by water which infiltrates into the subsurface through the water channels. Variogram aided gridding of resistivity data helps to identify the occurrence and distribution of saline water in the subsurface.     

Farmers’ perceptions of and adaptations to drought in Herat Province,Afghanistan

Drought is a significant natural hazard in Herat Province, Afghanistan. The objective of this study was to explore farmers’ perceptions of the drought’s prevalence and characteristics, its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, their strategies for coping with and mitigating it, and types of conflicts and resolution mechanisms. A questionnaire was completed by 147 farming households. The results indicate that farmers' perceptions regarding drought are in line with the results obtained using the precipitation data. Even though the respondents have religious belief in interpreting the weather related issues, they also perceived drought as the climatic and environmental factors such as increased temperature, decreased precipitation, and other factors like war, financial weakness, deforestation, over-exploitation of groundwater, lack of electricity supply etc. The results show that drought has had serious economic impacts, including loss of employment and reduction in crop yield and livestock production, which have reduced farmers’ livelihood options and weakened their financial situation. Social impacts have included migration, a sense of hopelessness and loss, conflicts over water, health problems, impacts on the schooling of children, malnutrition, and limits to food options. Significant environmental impacts such as an increase in temperature, pasture and forest degradation, deterioration of water quality, damage to fish and wildlife habitats, and groundwater depletion were also reported. Farmers used local techniques to adapt to drought and lessen its effects. Farmers perceived irrigation water to be a major source of conflict. Local elders, water-user associations, and formal courts were reported to be the most successful conflict resolution methods. It is expected that the results of this study will support policy makers within government and development agencies in Afghanistan to develop future drought adaptation policies.     

Phytotoxic effect of aluminum and chromium on the germination and early growth of wheat (Triticum aestivum) varieties Anmol and Kiran

A greenhouse experiment was conducted to determine the phytotoxic effect of aluminum and chromium on the germination and early growth of two wheat (Triticum aestivum) varieties Anmol and Kiran. Seed were treated with 40, 80, 120 and 160 ppm of aluminum and chromium solution individually and in combined form. Observations were made on seed germination, root, shoot and seedling length, and dry biomass. Seed germination and dry biomass showed no effect of aluminum, chromium and combined treatment. Root, shoot and seedling length of both the varieties showed significant (P<0.05) decrease as compared to control. The growth was also reduced as the concentration of aluminum and chromium increased. Seedling length decreased in both the varieties at all the concentration of different treatment of aluminum, chromium and combined treatment. Attempts are being made in different laboratories to construct novel plants using genetic manipulation technologies that may have a greater tolerance to the presence of toxic metals. The results of the present study may help in understanding the mechanisms involved and their possible use in pytoremediation.     

Periodic orbits generated by Lagrangian solutions of the restricted three body problem when one of the primaries is an oblate body

We have studied periodic orbits generated by Lagrangian solutions of the restricted three body problem when one of the primaries is an oblate body. We have determined the periodic orbits for different values of μ, h and A (h is energy constant, μ is mass ratio of the two primaries and A is an oblateness factor). These orbits have been determined by giving displacements along the tangent and normal to the mobile coordinates as defined by Karimov and Sokolsky (Celest. Mech. 46:335, 1989). These orbits have been drawn by using the predictor-corrector method. We have also studied the effect of oblateness by taking some fixed values of μ, A and h. As starters for our method, we use some known periodic orbits in the classical restricted three body problem.     

Prediction of rainfall‐induced shallow landslides in the Loess Plateau,Yan'an,China, using the TRIGRS model

In this work, a transient rainfall infiltration and grid‐based regional slope‐stability model (TRIGRS) was implemented in a case study of Yan'an City, Northwest China. In this area, widespread shallow landslides were triggered by the 12 July 2013 exceptional rainstorm event. A high‐resolution DEM, soil parameters from in‐situ and laboratory measurements, water table depths, the maximum depth of precipitation infiltration and rain‐gauge‐corrected precipitation of the event, were used as inputs in the TRIGRS model. Shallow landslides triggered on the same day were used to evaluate the modeling results. The summarized results are as follows: (i) The characteristics and distribution of thirty‐five shallow landslides triggered by the 12 July 2013 rainfall event were identified in the study area and all were classified as shallow landslides with the maximum depth, area and volume less than 3 m, 200 m² and 1000 m³, respectively, (ii) Four intermediate factor of safety (F_S) maps were generated using the TRIGRS model to represent the scenarios 6, 12, 18 and 24 hours after the storm event. The area with F_S < 1 increased with the rainfall duration. The percentage of the area with F_S < 1 was 0.2%, 3.3%, 3.8% and 5.1% for the four stages, respectively. Twenty‐four hours after the rainstorm, TRIGRS predicted that 1255 grid cells failed, which is consistent with the field data. (iii) TRIGRS generated more satisfactory results at a given precipitation threshold than SINMAP, which is ideal for landslide hazard zoning for land‐use planning at the regional scale. Comparison results showed that TRIGRS is more useful for landslide prediction for a certain precipitation threshold, also in the regional scale. (iv) Analysis of the responses of loess slope prone to slope failure after different precipitation scenarios revealed that loess slopes are particularly sensitive to extended periods of heavy precipitation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uptake of hazardous elements by spring onion (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Allium fistulosum</Emphasis> L.) from soil irrigated with different types of water and possible health risk

Bio-concentration of elements such as Mo, As, Se, Fe, Cu, Zn, Ni and Pb was analyzed in spring onion (Allium fistulosum L.) in three different locations of central Punjab, Pakistan. At location GW, relatively low level of hazardous elements was found in spring onion, suggesting that groundwater is a safe source of water for irrigating food crops. The pH of soil at wastewater irrigation was found less acidic (pH 7.4) than the other sites. The range of concentration in the different samples of spring onion was as follows: 6.15–8.16 mg kg^?1 for Mo, 2.77–4.28 mg kg^?1 for As, 0.395–0.705 mg kg^?1 for Se, 36.73–48.17 mg kg^?1 for Fe, 10.58–16.26 mg kg^?1 for Cu, 28.87–39.79 mg kg^?1 for Zn, 6.66–8.75 mg kg^?1 for Ni and 4.33–6.09 mg kg^?1 for Pb, respectively. High bio-concentration of Zn (15.37) from soil to spring onion was found at canal water irrigated location. The estimated daily intake of metal for spring onion was less, but the health risk index was higher than 1 for Mo, As, Cu, Pb and Ni, respectively. This was due to higher proportion of spring onion in diet, which consequently increased the health risk index for metals. Therefore, it is recommended to avoid growing vegetables in untreated urban and rural wastewater containing elevated amounts of metals.     

Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change

The uncertainties in the regional climate models (RCMs) are evaluated by analyzing the driving global data of ERA40 reanalysis and ECHAM5 general circulation models, and the downscaled data of two RCMs (RegCM4 and PRECIS) over South-Asia for the present day simulation (1971–2000) of South-Asian summer monsoon. The differences between the observational datasets over South-Asia are also analyzed. The spatial and the quantitative analysis over the selected climatic regions of South-Asia for the mean climate and the inter-annual variability of temperature, precipitation and circulation show that the RCMs have systematic biases which are independent from different driving datasets and seems to come from the physics parameterization of the RCMs. The spatial gradients and topographically-induced structure of climate are generally captured and simulated values are within a few degrees of the observed values. The biases in the RCMs are not consistent with the biases in the driving fields and the models show similar spatial patterns after downscaling different global datasets. The annual cycle of temperature and rainfall is well simulated by the RCMs, however the RCMs are not able to capture the inter-annual variability. ECHAM5 is also downscaled for the future (2071–2100) climate under A1B emission scenario. The climate change signal is consistent between ECHAM5 and RCMs. There is warming over all the regions of South-Asia associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the increase in summer mean surface air temperature by the end of the century ranges from 2.5 to 5 °C, with maximum warming over north western parts of the domain and 30 % increase in rainfall over north eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.