A fuzzy-Markov-chain-based analysis method for reservoir operation

In this study, a fuzzy-Markov-chain-based stochastic dynamic programming (FM-SDP) method is developed for tackling uncertainties expressed as fuzzy sets and distributions with fuzzy probability (DFPs) in reservoir operation. The concept of DFPs used in Markov chain is presented as an extended form for expressing uncertainties including both stochastic and fuzzy characteristics. A fuzzy dominance index analysis approach is proposed for solving multiple fuzzy sets and DPFs in the proposed FM-SDP model. Solutions under a set of α-cut levels and fuzzy dominance indices can be generated by solving a series of deterministic submodels. The developed method is applied to a case study of a reservoir operation system. Solutions from FM-SDP provide a range of desired water-release policies under various system conditions for reservoir operation decision makers, reflecting dynamic and dual uncertain features of water availability simultaneously. The results indicate that the FM-SDP method could be applicable to practical problems for decision makers to obtain insight regarding the tradeoffs between economic and system reliability criteria. Willingness to obtain a lower benefit may guarantee meeting system-constraint demands; conversely, a desire to acquire a higher benefit could run into a higher risk of violating system constraints.     

OSL and ESR studies of Aeolian quartz from the Upper Pleistocene loess sequence of Nussloch (Germany)

As part of a chronological study of the famous Upper Pleistocene Nussloch (Germany) loess sequence, three samples were collected to check the applicability of palaeodosimetric dating methods (OSL and ESR) to quartz grains. The ESR-multicentre method showed a partial bleaching of the ESR centers in aeolian sands. This partial bleaching was also observed by OSL. Laminated loess seemed to be sufficiently bleached but showed a large scatter of the doses, which we ascribed to heterogeneous responses of the luminescent grains to the SAR protocol. Ages could nevertheless be calculated for the three samples and were found to be somewhat older than the IRSL and ¹⁴C ages obtained for the same layers of the laminated loess.     

The formation and stability of carbonic acid on outer Solar System bodies

The radiation chemistry, thermal stability, and vapor pressure of solid-phase carbonic acid (H₂CO₃) have been studied with mid-infrared spectroscopy. A new procedure for measuring this molecule’s radiation stability has been used to obtain intrinsic IR band strengths and half-lives for radiolytic destruction. We report, for the first time, measurements of carbonic acid’s vapor pressure (0.290-2.33 × 10⁻¹¹ bar for 240-255 K) and its enthalpy of sublimation (71 ± 9 kJ mol⁻¹). We also report the first observation of a chemical reaction involving solid-phase carbonic acid. Possible applications of these findings are discussed, with an emphasis on the outer Solar System icy surfaces.     

Scientific field training for human planetary exploration

Forthcoming human planetary exploration will require increased scientific return (both in real time and post-mission), longer surface stays, greater geographical coverage, longer and more frequent EVAs, and more operational complexities than during the Apollo missions. As such, there is a need to shift the nature of astronauts’ scientific capabilities to something akin to an experienced terrestrial field scientist. To achieve this aim, the authors present a case that astronaut training should include an Apollo-style curriculum based on traditional field school experiences, as well as full immersion in field science programs. Herein we propose four Learning Design Principles (LDPs) focused on optimizing astronaut learning in field science settings. The LDPs are as follows:

(1)

LDP#1: Provide multiple experiences: varied field science activities will hone astronauts’ abilities to adapt to novel scientific opportunities

(2)

LDP#2: Focus on the learner: fostering intrinsic motivation will orient astronauts towards continuous informal learning and a quest for mastery

(3)

LDP#3: Provide a relevant experience—the field site: field sites that share features with future planetary missions will increase the likelihood that astronauts will successfully transfer learning

(4)

LDP#4: Provide a social learning experience—the field science team and their activities: ensuring the field team includes members of varying levels of experience engaged in opportunities for discourse and joint problem solving will facilitate astronauts’ abilities to think and perform like a field scientist.

The proposed training program focuses on the intellectual and technical aspects of field science, as well as the cognitive manner in which field scientists experience, observe and synthesize their environment. The goal of the latter is to help astronauts develop the thought patterns and mechanics of an effective field scientist, thereby providing a broader base of experience and expertise than could be achieved from field school alone. This will enhance their ability to execute, explore and adapt as in-field situations require.     

The analytic properties of the flapping current sheets in the earth magnetotail

The current sheet in Earth’s magnetotail often flaps, and the flapping waves could be induced propagating towards the dawn and dusk flanks, which could make the current sheet dynamic. To explore the dynamic characteristics of current sheet associated with the flapping motion holistically and provide reasonable physical interpretations, detailed direct calculation and analysis have been applied to one approximate analytic model of magnetic field in the flapping current sheet. The main results from the model demonstrate: (1) the magnetic fluctuation amplitude is attenuated from the center of current sheet to the lobe regions; The larger wave amplitude would induce the larger magnetic amplitude; (2) the curvature of magnetic field lines (MFLs), with maximum at the center of current sheet, is only dependent on the displacement Z along the south-north direction from the center of current sheet, regardless of the tilt of current sheet; (3) the half-thickness of neutral sheet, h, the minimum curvature radius of MFLs, R_cmin, and the tilt angle of current sheet, δ, satisfies h=R_cmin cos δ; (4) the gradient of magnetic strength forms a double-peak profile, and the peak value would be more intense if the local current sheet is more tilted; (5) current density j and its j_y, j_z components reach the extremum at the center of CS. j and j_z would be more intense if the local current sheet is more tilted, but it is not the case for j_y; and (6) the field-aligned component of current density mainly appears in the neutral sheet, and the sign of it would change alternatively as the flapping waves passing by. To check the validity of the model, one simulation on the virtual measurements has been made, and the results are in well consistence with actual observations of Cluster.     

The origin of cutoff frequencies for torsional tube waves propagating in the solar atmosphere

Torsional waves supported by magnetic flux tubes have long been thought to bear a high potential for supplying energy and momentum to the upper solar atmosphere, thereby contributing to its heating and to the driving of dynamic events like spicules. This hope rested on the belief that their propagation is not impeded by cutoff restrictions, unlike longitudinal and kink waves. We point out that this applies only to thin, isothermal tubes. When they widen in the chromosphere, and as a result of temperature gradients, cutoff restrictions arise. We compare them to recent observational reports of such waves and of vortex motions and find that their long period components are already affected by cutoff restrictions. An observational strategy is proposed that should permit the derivation of better information on vortex flows from off‐center observations with next generation telescopes (© 2010 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The “Same Side – Opposite Side Effect” of the Heliospheric Current Sheet in Ionospheric Negative Storms

Using 141 CME-interplanetary shock (CME-IPS) events and foF2 from eight ionosonde stations from January 2000 to September 2005, from the statistical results we find that there is a “same side?–?opposite side effect” in ionospheric negative storms, i.e., a large portion of ionospheric negative disturbances are induced by the same-side events (referring to the CMEs whose source located on the same side of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) as the Earth), while only a small portion is associated with the opposite-side events (the CMEs source located on the opposite side of the HCS as the Earth); the ratio is 128 vs. 46, and it reaches 41 vs. 14 for the intense ionospheric negative storms. In addition, the ionospheric negative storms associated with the same-side events are often more intense. A comparison of the same-side event (4 April 2000) and the opposite-side event (2 April 2001) shows that the intensity of the ionospheric negative storm caused by the same-side event is higher than that by the opposite-side event, although their initial conditions are quite similar. Our preliminary results show that the HCS has an “impeding” effect to CME-IPS, which results in a shortage of energy injection in the auroral zone and restraining the development of ionospheric negative perturbations.     

Long–term Photometry of RT Lacertae: 2. Further Evidence fo a Circumstellar Envelope and MAss Accretion

The light curves, obtained by the authors of the present paper during the period 1978–1992, of the chromospherically active binary system RT Lac were examined. The average (B–V) colour indices were obtained and corrected for the interstellar extinction. Spectroscopic studies indicate that the less massive component may be taken as G8. The light curve analysis indicates that the less massive, larger component fills its corresponding Roche lobe. Both photometric and spectroscopic observations compel one to draw a conclusion that circumstellar matter does exist around the binary system. A colour excess caused by this matter is found to be 0.278 for B–V colour at mid–secondary eclipse. On the basis of photometric colour indices alone, the components of RT Lac are classified as G3–4 and G8. If we use the observed radial velocities of the less massive subgiant star from Ca II emission lines and from other optical lines we find for the mass of the more massive component as 1.34–1.70 M. This mass range corresponds to the main sequence late F stars. The common envelope hypothesis and mass function and also blending of the spectral lines of more massive component point out that it should be at most a late F type main sequence star.