气象灾情收集与影响评估工作中存在的若干问题

联系近几年孝感市气象灾情收集与影响评估工作实践,分析了当前气象灾情收集与影响评估工作中存在的主要问题及产生原因,并着重从规范管理机制、完善开放的气象灾情收集网络、建立快速高效的反应体系、加强专业队伍建设和专业技术研究等方面,探讨了解决相关问题的对策。     

基于网络控制板的地震台站远程电源监控系统

针对无人值守地震台站逐年增加,运行维护模式不佳的现状,设计一种远程电源监控系统,采用远程电源控制模块,设计软件通过TCP/IP协议,在仪器出现死机时,远程实现设备的断电重启。本文对该系统的设计思路、硬件构成进行描述,并简要介绍软件功能设计、监控告警以及该系统在无人值守台站的应用。实践证明,该系统可有效解决因仪器死机造成的观测数据缺记,为地震专业设备的可靠运行和及时维护提供依据与保障,为今后地震台站,特别是无人值守台站的维护提供借鉴。     

Finite element analysis of steep excavation slope failure by CFS theory

The distribution of Coulomb failure stress (CFS) change in the steep excavation slope is calculated by finite element method in this paper,and the failure mechanics under different conditions have been investigated.Comparing the CFSs before and after the slope excavation (stress loading and unloading processes),the dangerous internal zone and the most likely failure external area are attained.Given the shear cracks on the top surface while tensile stress or cracks along the toe of the slope,we analyze the high cutting-angle steep slope in Kaixian county of the Three Gorges Reservoir region.We bring forward that the peak value of CFS after excavation can reach to the order of 0.1 MPa,which is greatly higher than that of before.Our preliminary results are useful for optimizing the reinforcement structure during the steep slope stabilization engineering.     

三峡库区巴东县城附近主要滑坡边界轨迹分形分维特征与滑坡稳定性关系

为了探索复杂滑坡轨迹结构演化及其稳定性定量分析计算的新途径，本文利用分形分维理论，分析三峡库区巴东县城附近滑坡边界轨迹的几何分形结构，并采用盒维数法分别求得巴东县城附近11个滑坡边界轨迹的分维值，计算结果表明：每个滑坡的轨迹结构具有其特征性的分维值，轨迹结构越复杂，结构层次越清楚，分维值越高；其中，榨房坪滑坡和黄腊石滑坡的分维值最高，分别为1.50和1.483，西壤口和谭家湾滑坡的分维值最低，分别为0.925和0.732；而黄土坡和赵树岭滑坡的分维值介于二者之间，分别为1.111和1.091。结合典型滑坡边界轨迹结构演化与滑坡稳定性关系的定性分析及前期滑坡稳定性定量计算和模拟分析，初步揭示：滑坡边界轨迹结构与稳定性是密切相关的，滑坡边界轨迹宏观扩展增值越明显，轨迹结构越复杂，分维值越高，其稳定性条件也越差，因此，分数维可作为衡量滑坡轨迹结构复杂性和稳定性的重要标志；滑坡边界轨迹宏观扩展变形存在一个极限，超过这个极限滑坡的局部失稳就转化为整体滑动；而滑坡边界轨迹则记录了滑坡变形扩展现象和信息，因此，相对应地滑坡轨迹分形结构的分维值也应存在一个极值，在极值点滑坡体处于临滑状态；滑坡边界轨迹结构的极限分维值大致为1.4～1.5，此时滑坡接近于整体极限失稳状态，而分维值在1.1～1.3之间则表示滑坡处于整体稳定，局部存在潜在失稳状态，分维值小于1则表示滑坡处于相对稳定状态。     

一次江淮大暴雨过程中尺度系统结构分析

本文应用观测资料和中尺度数值模拟结果对1999年6月23日发生在江淮地区一次梅雨锋暴雨过程进行研究，揭示了影响这次暴雨过程的物理条件、云团的演变特征及与中尺度系统的关系，分析表明，在暴雨生成和发展过程中，多个中尺度云团在相继生成和移动发展，暴雨中心是几个发展较强的中尺度对流云团造成的，西南风低空急流为暴雨提供了水汽输送，并且通过强垂直运动向对流层中上层输送水汽，这次暴雨与中尺度系统发生发展有直接关系，西南涡分裂出一系列的小涡旋，这些小涡旋边向东移边减弱，并且同时在地面上引发小低压，这些中尺度低压增强低空水平辐合，成为触发不稳定能量的机制，低空急流中心与雨区相互对应，且急流风速增强，风速水平切变梯度增大的过程对应着强降水过程。     

The impact of climate change on coastal geological disasters in southeastern China

Climate change is presently a major global challenge. As the world??s largest developing country, China is particularly vulnerable to global warming, especially in the rapidly developing coastal regions in the southeast of the country. This paper provides an overview of the impacts of climate change on the nature of geological disasters in the coastal regions of southeastern China. In the context of climate change, processes with the potential for causing geological disasters in this region, including sea-level rise, land subsidence, storm surges, and slope failures, which already have a substantial occurrence history, are all aggravated. All these processes have their own characteristics and relevance to climate change. Sea-level rise together with land subsidence reduces the function of dikes and flood prevention infrastructure in the study areas and makes the region more vulnerable to typhoons, storm surges, floods, and astronomical tidal effects. Storm surges have caused great losses in the study areas and also have contributed to increases in rainstorms. As a result, numerous rainfall-induced slope failures, characterized by focused time concentration, high frequencies, strong ??burstiness,?? and substantial damage, occur in the study areas. To prevent and mitigate such disasters that are accelerated by climate change, and to reduce losses, a series of measures is proposed that may help to achieve sustainable development in coastal southeastern China.     

新疆大红柳滩伟晶岩型锂矿深部结构与区域成矿模型解释

为揭示花岗岩- 伟晶岩型锂等稀有金属矿成矿系统的深部结构,对西昆仑造山带大红柳滩伟晶岩型锂矿集区开展了大地电磁测深法(MT)探测。通过MT三维反演电阻率模型,探测到两个0~20 km深度范围的高阻体,反映了出露于地表的大红柳滩复式花岗岩基和半隐伏的大红柳滩东花岗岩基;20~80 km深度范围内发现的大范围高导异常,则反映了深达上地幔的地壳重熔形成的大规模长英质岩浆储库。可见,成矿母岩大红柳滩花岗岩基是有根的,而且是规模巨大深达上地幔的岩浆储库,它们为超大型大红柳滩伟晶岩型锂矿的形成提供了物源和热源。与松潘- 甘孜甲基卡超大型伟晶岩型锂矿集区对比,尽管川西甲基卡地区地表出露的花岗岩有限,但MT三维反演电阻率模型显示,其也存在深达上地幔的大范围高导异常,同样反映了大规模长英质岩浆储库的存在,只是剥蚀深度浅,上侵的花岗岩未被剥蚀出来而已。从而,深剥蚀的大红柳滩地区表现为大面积花岗岩出露的“热隆”特征,而浅剥蚀的甲基卡地区则表现为花岗岩围岩“片麻岩穹隆”热变质构造特征。西昆仑- 松潘- 甘孜伟晶岩型锂等稀有金属巨型成矿带两端的晚三叠世超大型矿床是大规模地壳重熔长英质岩浆作用中心的产物,由于锂等稀有金属的喜水性,H2O的饱和度是造就伟晶岩型锂超常富集的关键,并在长英质岩浆储库、上侵花岗岩和伟晶岩不同分异演化阶段,锂的“预富集”为大规模伟晶岩型锂矿成矿奠定了重要基础。     

分离的大陆板块边缘镁铁－超镁铁岩系Th／Hf—Ta／Hf判别

本文在论述了Ｔｈ／Ｈｆ－Ｔａ／Ｈｆ关系判别岩浆岩源区大地构造环境机理的基础上，根据世界上典型大地构造环境区岩浆岩系的Ｔｈ、Ｔａ、Ｈｆ特征，提出了分离的大陆板块边缘镁铁－超镁铁岩的Ｔｈ／Ｈｆ—Ｔａ／Ｈｆ判别标志：Ｔｈ／Ｔａ＝１．８～４．０，Ｔａ／Ｈｆ＞０．１。     

PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE FLOODING AND DROUGHT CLAMITY DURING PAST 1500 YEARS IN THE HAI′AN REGION，JIANGSU PROVINCE

Collection and arrangement of the historical records of climatic changes and environment evolution,espectial-lyin the aspect of calamities,are made on the history documents of past 1500 years about Haiˊan region,Jiangsu Province.There existed two obvious flooding-drought frequently-occurring periods:one was from 1550 AD to 1850 AD and another was 100 AD to 1200AD.The period of 1550 AD to1850 AD is interrupted by two relatively arid and cold climatic periods:one was from 1630 AD to 1700 AD and another was 1750 AD to 1820 AD.The main characteristic of the calamity periods is that they occurred by turns,and sometimes,both drought and flooding occurred in the same year.The instability of the climatic changes in the Little Ice Age may be the main reason of the frequently-occurring flooding and drought in Haiˊan region.Research results also show that the frequently-occurring periods of flooding and drought is in close relationship with the solar activity,and therefore,occurrence of the flooding and drought may be in relation with the intensity of the solar activity.This hypothesis may need further study in the future.