Climate change impacts on runoff in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia)

The main freshwater source of arid/semi-arid Central Asia is stored in its high mountain glaciers. Water for the downstream countries is mainly supplied through the Syrdarya River that originates at the confluence of the Naryn and Karadarya rivers in the Ferghana Valley. Runoff generation from glaciers plays a crucial role, although a considerable number of small tributaries supply the river with additional runoff from snowmelt and rain in the mountains surrounding the Ferghana Valley. Observations of rising air temperature and accelerated glacier shrinkage make it most likely that the relative contributions of the smaller tributaries will increase. Hitherto, assessments of climate change effects on the water resource availability have largely neglected the growing importance of the runoff from smaller tributaries. We used a dynamically downscaled A1B SRES scenario for climate change effects for the period 2071–2100 in relation to the reference period of 1971–2000 and a version of the conceptual hydrological Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning model (HBV-light) to estimate runoff contributions with particular respect to the small tributaries. The simulations showed a 12–42% decrease in summer runoff; and a 44–107% increase in winter-spring runoff. This indicates the hydrological regime is shifting towards a runoff from snowmelt earlier in the year. The study suggests that actions for climate change adaptation should be complemented by land management configured to secure optimal runoff supplement from the smaller catchments.     

A distribution law for relative humidity in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere derived from three years of MOZAIC measurements

Data from three years of MOZAIC measurements made it possible to determine a distribution law for the relative humidity in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Data amounting to 13.5% of the total were obtained in regions with ice supersaturation. Troposphere and stratosphere are distinguished by an ozone concentration of 130 ppbv as threshold. The probability of measuring a certain amount of ice supersaturation in the troposphere decreases exponentially with the degree of ice supersaturation. The probability of measuring a certain relative humidity in the stratosphere (both with respect to water and ice) decreases exponentially with the relative humidity. A stochastic model that naturally leads to the exponential distribution is provided. Mean supersaturation in the troposphere is about 15%, whereas ice nucleation requires 30% supersaturation on the average. This explains the frequency of regions in which aircraft induce persistent contrails but which are otherwise free of clouds. Ice supersaturated regions are 3-4 K colder and contain more than 50% more vapour than other regions in the upper troposphere. The stratospheric air masses sampled are dry, as expected, having mean relative humidity over water of 12% and over ice of 23%, respectively. However, 2% of the stratospheric data indicate ice supersaturation. As the MOZAIC measurements have been obtained on commercial flights mainly between Europe and North America, the data do not provide a complete global picture, but the exponential character of the distribution laws found is probably valid globally. Since water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas and since it might enhance the anthropogenic greenhouse effects via positive feedback mechanisms, it is important to represent its distribution correctly in climate models. The discovery of the distribution law of the relative humidity makes possible simple tests to show whether the hydrological cycle in climate models is represented in an adequate way or not.     

Chicxulub impact ejecta from Albion Island, Belize

Impact ejecta from the Albion Formation are exposed in northern Belize. The ejecta come from the outer portion of the continuous ejecta blanket of the Chicxulub crater, which is located 360 km to the northwest. The basal unit of the Albion Formation is a 1-m-thick clay and dolomite spheroid bed composed of up to four discrete flows. The clay spheroids are altered impact glass, and the dolomite spheroids are accretionary lapilli. The upper unit is a 15-m-thick coarse diamictite bed containing altered glass, large accretionary blocks, striated, polished, and impacted cobbles, and rare shocked quartz. The abundance of accretionary clasts, evidence for atmospheric drag sorting, and the presence of multiple flows in the Albion Formation indicate that atmospheres play an important role in the formation of the outer portions of continuous ejecta blankets of large craters.     

Bringing stakeholders,scientists, and managers together through an integrated ecosystem assessment process

For decades, the scientific community has conducted essential background research and developed appropriate modeling tools in support of an ecosystem-based approach to natural resource management. Resource managers and the public, however, lack a clear roadmap for working with scientists to move beyond the traditional single-species approach. With current management processes so strongly focused on working in a species-by-species framework, there are entrenched cultural and institutional challenges to shifting those processes toward ecosystem-based management. We propose using the integrated ecosystem assessment process to both develop new management ideas for a particular ecosystem, and to help shift public policy processes and perceptions to embrace ecosystem approaches to management.     

Coupled garnet Lu–Hf and monazite U–Pb geochronology constrain early convergent margin dynamics in the Ross orogen,Antarctica

The Ross orogen of Antarctica is an extensive (>3000 km‐long) belt of deformed and metamorphosed sedimentary rocks and granitoid batholiths, which formed during convergence and subduction of palaeo‐Pacific lithosphere beneath East Gondwana in the Neoproterozoic–early Palaeozoic. Despite its prominent role in Gondwanan convergent tectonics, and a well‐established magmatic record, relatively little is known about the metamorphic rocks in the Ross orogen. A combination of garnet Lu–Hf and monazite U–Pb (measured by laser‐ablation split‐stream ICP‐MS) geochronology reveals a protracted metamorphic history of metapelites and garnet amphibolites from a major segment of the orogen. Additionally, direct dating of a common rock‐forming mineral (garnet) and accessory mineral (monazite) allows us to test assumptions that are commonly used when linking accessory mineral geochronology to rock‐forming mineral reactions. Petrography, mineral zoning, thermobarometry and pseudosection modelling reveal a Barrovian‐style prograde path, reaching temperatures of ~610–680 °C. Despite near‐complete diffusional resetting of garnet major element zoning, the garnet retains strong rare earth element zoning and preserves Lu–Hf dates that range from c. 616–572 Ma. Conversely, monazite in the rocks was extensively recrystallized, with concordant dates that span from c. 610–500 Ma, and retain only vestigial cores. Monazite cores yield dates that overlap with the garnet Lu–Hf dates and typically have low‐Y and heavy rare earth element (HREE) concentrations, corroborating interpretations of low‐Y and low‐HREE monazite domains as records of synchronous garnet growth. However, ratios of REE concentrations in garnet and monazite do not consistently match previously reported partition coefficients for the REE between these two minerals. High‐Y monazite inclusions within pristine, crack‐free garnet yield U–Pb dates significantly younger than the Lu–Hf dates for the same samples, indicating recrystallization of monazite within garnet. The recrystallization of high‐Y and high‐HREE monazite domains over >50 Ma likely records either punctuated thermal pulses or prolonged residence at relatively high temperatures (up to ~610–680 °C) driving monazite recrystallization. One c. 616 Ma garnet Lu–Hf date and several c. 610–600 Ma monazite U–Pb dates are tentatively interpreted as records of the onset of tectonism metamorphism in the Ross orogeny, with a more robust constraint from the other Lu–Hf dates (c. 588–572 Ma) and numerous c. 590–570 Ma monazite U–Pb dates. The data are consistent with a tectonic model that involves shortening and thickening prior to widespread magmatism in the vicinity of the study area. The early tectonic history of the Ross orogen, recorded in metamorphic rocks, was broadly synchronous with Gondwana‐wide collisional Pan‐African orogenies.     

Coral recruitment and potential recovery of eutrophied and blast fishing impacted reefs in Spermonde Archipelago,Indonesia

Coral recruitment was assessed in highly diverse and economically important Spermonde Archipelago, a reef system subjected to land-based sources of siltation/pollution and destructive fishing, over a period of 2 years. Recruitment on settlement tiles reached up to 705 spat m⁻² yr⁻¹ and was strongest in the dry season (July–October), except off-shore, where larvae settled earlier. Pocilloporidae dominated near-shore, while a more diverse community of Acroporidae, Poritidae and others settled in the less polluted mid-shelf and off-shore reefs. Non-coral fouling community appeared to hardly influence initial coral settlement on the tiles, although, this does not necessarily infer low coral post-settlement mortality, which may be enhanced at the near- and off-shore reefs as indicated by increased abundances of potential space competitors on natural substrate. Blast fishing showed no local reduction in coral recruitment and live hard coral cover increased in oligotrophic reefs, indicating potential for coral recovery, if managed effectively.     

Seismic swarms,fluid flow and hydraulic conductivity in the forearc offshore North Costa Rica and Nicaragua

At the continental margin of north Costa Rica and Nicaragua, the strongly hydrated Cocos Plate subducts beneath the Caribbean Plate. From the downgoing Cocos plate fluids are released through extensional fractures in the overriding plate. At the seafloor, they form fluid seeps, mounds and other types of fluid expulsion. Using an offshore temporary seismic network, we investigated seismicity possibly related to these processes and observed several swarms of earthquakes located on the continental slope trenchward of the seismogenic zone of S Nicaragua. The seismicity occurred within the downgoing plate, near the plate interface and in the overriding plate. We interpret these swarm events as an expression of pore pressure propagation under critical stress conditions driven by fluid release from the downgoing plate. In order to estimate hydraulic diffusivity and permeability values, we applied a theory developed for injection test interpretation to the spatio-temporal development of the swarms. The resulting diffusivity and permeability values are in the ranges of 28–305 m²/s and 3.2 × 10^?14 m²–35.1 × 10^?14 m², respectively, applying to the continental and oceanic crust near the plate interface. These values are somewhat larger than observed in drill logs on the margin wedge off north Costa Rica, but of comparable magnitude to values estimated for the Antofagasta 1995 earthquake aftershock sequence.     

Structural-metamorphic evolution of the Southern Yenisey Range of Eastern Siberia: implications for the emplacement of the Kanskiy granulite Complex

Summary ?The Southern Yenisey Range of Eastern Siberia consists of the granulite facies Kanskiy Complex bordered in the west by the lower-grade Yeniseyskiy and Yukseevskiy Complexes. Three deformational events were recognized in each of the three complexes along the Yenisey River cross-section: a D1 fabric forming event, a D2 shear and folding event, and a D3 shear event. Thrust kinematics across the Southern Yenisey Range suggest that during the D2 event the Kanskiy Complex was thrusted along a regional ductile shear zone onto the lower-grade complexes. This resulted in shearing and folding as well as the development of a dynamic metamorphic zonation. In the low-grade greenstone belt part of the cross section (Yukseevskiy complex) D2 shearing is associated with peak prograde (T ∼ 660 °C and P ∼ 5.8 kbar) metamorphism. The retrograde P-T path of the Yukseevskiy Complex coincides with minimum T of the near-isobaric cooling P-T paths for the adjacent granulites of the Kanskiy Complex (Perchuk et al., 1989). The metamorphism can therefore be attributed to deformation and heat transfer caused by exhumation of the Kanskiy Complex in the time period 2000–1800 Ma which also defines the most significant tectono-thermal event in the Southern Yenisey Range. The tectono-metamorphic pattern and evolution of the low- to high-grade metamorphic complexes of the Southern Yenisey Range is very similar to that described for the ∼ 2600 Ma Limpopo Complex of Southern Africa and the ∼ 1900 Ma Lapland Complex of the Kola Peninsula. Similar geodynamic processes were therefore possibly responsible for the formation of these high-grade terrains suggesting that their formation is linked to a general geodynamic model.

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Zusammenfassung ?Strukturelle und metamorphe Entwicklung des südlichen Jenissei-Gebirges in Ost-Sibirien: Bedeutung für die Platznahme des Kanskiy Granulit-Komplexes Das südliche Jenissei-Gebirge in Ost-Sibirien besteht aus dem granulit-faziellen Kanskiy Komplex, der im Westen durch die niedrig-gradigen Jenisseiski und Jukseevski-Komplexe begrenzt wird. Drei Deformations-Phasen k?nnen in jedem der drei Komplexe l?ngs eines Profiles am Jenissei-Fluss beobachtet werden: Eine Phase, die zur Entwicklung des D1 Gefüges führte, eine Phase D2 mit Scher- und Faltvorg?ngen und eine D3 Scher-Phase. Die Kinematik von überschiebungen über das südliche Jenissei-Gebirge deuten an, dass w?hrend der D2-Phase der Kanskiy-Komplex l?ngs einer regionalen duktilen Scherzone auf die niedriggradigeren Komplexe überschoben wurde. Dies führte zu Scherung und Faltung, sowie zur Entwicklung einer dynamischen metamorphen Zonierung. In dem niedriggradigen Grünsteingürtel innerhalb des Profils (Jukseevski-Komplex) ist D2-Scherung mit dem H?hepunkt der prograden Metamorphose (T ≈ 660 °C und P ≈ 5,8 kbar) zusammengefallen. Der retrograde P-T-Pfad des Jukseevski-Komplexes f?llt mit der Minimum-Temperatur der fast isobaren Abkühlung der P-T-Pfade für die benachbarten Granulite des Kanskiy-Komplexes zusammen (Perchuk et al., 1989). Die Metamorphose kann deshalb auf Deformation und W?rmefluss zurückgeführt werden, die durch die Freilegung des Kanskiy-Komplexes zwischen 2.00 und 1.80 Ma verursacht wurde; letztere f?llt auch mit der wichtigsten tektono-thermalen Phase im südlichen Jenissei-Gebirge zusammen. Das tektono-metamorphe Muster und die Entwicklung von niedrig- zu hochgradigen metamorphen Komplexen des südlichen Jenissei-Gebirges ?hnelt in vielf?ltiger Weise dem ungef?hr 2.600 Ma alten Limpopo-Komplex im südlichen Afrika und dem 1.900 Ma alten Lappland-Komplex der Kola-Halbinsel. ?hnliche geodynamische Prozesse waren deshalb m?glicherweise für die Entstehung dieser hochgradig metamorphen Terrains verantwortlich; dies wiederum weist darauf hin, dass ihre Entstehung einem allgemeinen geodynamischen Modell entspricht.

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Received April 27, 1999;/revised version accepted July 14, 1999