Distribution of suspended particulate matter in the North Sea as inferred from NOAA/AVHRR reflectance images and in situ observations

Distribution patterns of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the surface water of the North Sea were calculated on the basis of: (1) the 1973–1993 data base of the EC MAST North West European Shelf Programme (NOWESP); and (2) composite reflectance images constructed from data that were collected by the NOAA/AVHRR satellite in 1990–1991. Three models were used for interpolating the in situ data: (1) a distance-weighted interpolation algorithm in which only the in situ data are taken into account; (2) an algorithm in which the ratios between the measured SPM concentrations and reflectances are interpolated, and the distribution of SPM is calculated from the field of interpolated ratios and the synoptic reflectance image; and (3) a distance-weighted algorithm similar to model-1, but with an additional weight factor that is based on local differences in reflectance. The models were tested for periods of 1 and 3 weeks in September 1990 and January 1991, and for the merged set consisting of all in situ data measured in September and January, respectively, between 1973 and 1993. Model-2 and -3 gave largely similar results and had a performance superior to model-1, particularly because they showed more detailed structures in the spatial distributions. Validations and cross-validations showed that the absolute concentrations of SPM predicted by the models were too low at high in situ concentrations and too high at low in situ concentrations. This shortcoming was due to the relatively high degree of smoothing that we applied in the models to account for the large variance of the in situ data. Semivariograms and correlograms indicated that the in situ data had substantial variability and were poorly correlated even at short distances. Only for the 20-year-merged data set did some correlation ( %) exist for stations km from each other. Monthly distributions of SPM were calculated with model-3 and the 20-year data set. The distributions confirm the main patterns previously found by others, such as the turbidity plume crossing the North Sea from southeast England towards the depository in the Skagerrak and the Norwegian Channel. The distributions indicate that materials from this plume may be deposited in the central North Sea in spring and summer and eroded again in autumn and winter. Areas with maximum SPM concentrations were identified off the Belgian coast and north of the Wadden Sea, particularly in winter, from which particles are entrained into the main current in a narrow strip along the continental coast to the German Bight. The results suggest that the two main fluxes of SPM in the North Sea, off England and along the continental coast, remain largely separated until they both end in the Skagerrak.     

A weight-of-evidence approach to assessing the ecological impact of organotin pollution in Dutch marine and brackish waters; combining risk prognosis and field monitoring using common periwinkles (Littorina littorea)

In the present study an integrated ecological risk assessment based on multiple lines of evidence (LOEs) was evaluated in order to better assess the risk from TBT in Dutch harbours and open coastal waters. On the basis of spatial distributions of measured tributyltin (TBT) concentrations in sediments and suspended matter, predictions of the intersex index (ISI) in Littorina littorea and the ecological risk expressed as the Potentially Affected Fraction (PAF) of species were made. The results were compared to actual ISI measurements and presence of L. littorea in the field. The PAF calculated on the basis of TBT levels for open coastal waters ranged from 4.2% to 15.3%; for harbours it ranged from 3.5% to 26.9%. Significant intersex levels were observed only in waters where the risk was calculated above 10% PAF. This study suggests that the absence of L. littorea from some harbours with high ecological risk values can be explained by high TBT concentrations. A call is made for the use of integrated approaches like weight-of-evidence (WOE) to help practitioners improve ecological risk assessment.     

The morphological response of a nearshore double sandbar system to constant wave forcing

Results of 2DH morphodynamic computations are presented to quantify the temporal evolution of the crescentic patterns emerging in a double nearshore bar system in response to constant wave boundary forcing. Sixteen different conditions varying both offshore wave height and angle of wave incidence were applied. The mean length scales of the emerging irregular crescentic patterns are linearly proportional to the local longshore velocity over the inner and outer bars. For similar longshore velocities, the length scales of the outer bar are larger than of the inner bar. This is explained by accounting for the difference in water depth above the bar crest. The variable morphological response times can be explained by including additional bathymetrical parameters. The active volume of the bar, defined by the breaker index, plays an important role in this response time. With larger active volumes the bar responds more rapidly to identical boundary conditions. Also, bars with a smaller total volume respond more quickly. This faster response is due to the steeper active volume of the bars. Different initial perturbations resulted in different locations of the emerging features, showing that their location is sensitive to the initial bathymetry. However, the range in length scales and response times due to the different perturbations was significantly smaller than those obtained for the different hydrodynamic conditions. Based on the present findings we hypothesize that morphological length scales in the field are rarely in equilibrium with the concurrent offshore wave height and angle of incidence owing to the slow response of the sandbars under constant conditions relative to the stochastic nature of natural wave forcing.     

A new microsplitter for unconsolidated sediments

Unrepresentative subsamples can be obtained from a sedimentary sample through repeated subdivision when using a mechanical microsplitter. Physical biases are often compounded by repetition and can result in wide variations among the estimates computed from the relative proportion of foraminifera of a given species. A new microsplitter, designed on a new principle, has been built to separate small representative subsamples. The device is based on the uniform distribution of unconsolidated sediments suspended in water. A subsample of the desired size is obtained by collecting sediment from an appropriate sedimentation area. Operation of this sampler is rapid and convenient and requires only one step, thus eliminating sampling biases introduced by repeated operations with other splitters. This new device was tested and found to be superior to the Otto Microsplitter according to some statistical goodness-of-fit tests conducted on the series.     

Future urban growth and agricultural land in Ontario

The conversion of agricultural land to urban uses has been a point of concern for some years. Despite numerous empirical analyses, the impacts of such conversions on agriculture remain a subject of debate. This paper takes estimates of future rural to urban land conversion in Ontario for the period of 1976–2001 and evaluates implications of these in terms of the land resource for agriculture. Data on crop yields allow some assessment of the loss of provincial productive potential due to the estimated land conversions. Results indicate that while the greatest conversion will occur at the expense of land with a high capability for agriculture, the proportion converted is small relative to the total land resource.     

An experiment to study and control the Langmuir sheath around INTERBALL-2

The satellite INTERBALL-2 has an orbit with high inclination (62.8°), covering the altitude range between a few hundred and about 20000 km. The ambient plasma conditions along this orbit are highly variable, and the interactions of this plasma with the spacecraft body as well as the photo-electron sheath around it are considered to be interesting topics for detailed studies. The electric potential of the spacecraft with respect to the ambient plasma that develops as a result of the current equilibrium reacts sensitively to variations of the boundary conditions. The measurement and eventual control of this potential is a prerequisite for accurate measurements of the thermal plasma. We describe the purpose and technical implementation of an ion emitter instrument on-board INTERBALL-2 utilising ion beams at energies of several thousand electron volts in order to reduce and stabilise the positive spacecraft potential. First results of the active ion beam experiments, and other measures taken on INTERBALL-2 to reduce charging are presented. Furthermore, the approach and initial steps of modelling efforts of the sheath in the vicinity of the INTERBALL-2 spacecraft are described together with some estimates on the resulting spacecraft potential, and effects on thermal ion measurements. It is concluded that even moderate spacecraft potentials as are commonly observed on-board INTERBALL-2 can significantly distort the measurements of ion distribution functions, especially in the presence of strongly aniso-tropic distributions.     

Equations for the Estimation of Strong Ground Motions from Shallow Crustal Earthquakes Using Data from Europe and the Middle East: Vertical Peak Ground Acceleration and Spectral Acceleration

This article presents equations for the estimation of vertical strong ground motions caused by shallow crustal earthquakes with magnitudes M_w 5 and distance to the surface projection of the fault less than 100km. These equations were derived by weighted regression analysis, used to remove observed magnitude-dependent variance, on a set of 595 strong-motion records recorded in Europe and the Middle East. Coefficients are included to model the effect of local site effects and faulting mechanism on the observed ground motions. The equations include coefficients to model the observed magnitude-dependent decay rate. The main findings of this study are that: short-period ground motions from small and moderate magnitude earthquakes decay faster than the commonly assumed 1/r, the average effect of differing faulting mechanisms is similar to that observed for horizontal motions and is not large and corresponds to factors between 0.7 (normal and odd) and 1.4 (thrust) with respect to strike-slip motions and that the average long-period amplification caused by soft soil deposits is about 2.1 over those on rock sites.     

Farm-Level Adaptation to Climatic Variability and Change: Crop Diversification in the Canadian Prairies

Among other foci, recent research on adaptation to climatic variability and change has sought to evaluate the merit of adaptation generally, as well as the suitability of particular adaptations. Additionally, there is a need to better understand the likely uptake of adaptations. For example, diversification is one adaptation that has been identified as a potential farm-level response to climatic variability and change, but its adoption by farmers for this reason is not well understood. This paper serves two purposes. The first is to document the adoption of crop diversification in Canadian prairie agriculture for the period 1994–2002, reflect upon its strengths and limitations for managing a variety of risks, including climatic ones, and gauge its likely adoption by producers in response to anticipated climate change. The second purpose is to draw on this case to refine our current understanding of climate change adaptation more generally. Based upon data from over 15 000 operations, it was determined that individual farms have become more specialized in their cropping patterns since 1994, and this trend is unlikely to change in the immediate future, notwithstanding anticipated climate change and the known risk-reducing benefits of crop diversification. More broadly, the analysis suggests that suitable and even possible climate change adaptations need to be more rigorously assessed in order to understand their wider strengths and limitations.     

Geochronological problems related to polymetamorphism in the Limpopo Complex, South Africa

The integration of new and published geochronologic data with structural, magmatic/anatectic and pressure–temperature (P–T) process information allow the recognition of high-grade polymetamorphic granulites and associated high-grade shear zones in the Central Zone (CZ) of the Limpopo high-grade terrain in South Africa. Together, these two important features reflect a major high-grade D₃/M₃ event at ~ 2.02 Ga that overprinted the > 2.63 Ga high-grade Neoarchaean D₂/M₂ event, characterized by SW-plunging sheath folds. These major D₂/M₂ folds developed before ~ 2.63 Ga based on U–Pb zircon age data for precursors to leucocratic anatectic gneisses that cut the high-grade gneissic fabric. The D₃/M₃ shear event is accurately dated by U–Pb monazite (2017.1 ± 2.8 Ma) and PbSL garnet (2023 ± 11 Ma) age data obtained from syntectonic anatectic material, and from sheared metapelitic gneisses that were completely reworked during the high-grade shear event. The shear event was preceded by isobaric heating (P = ~ 6 kbar and T = ~ 670–780 °C), which resulted in the widespread formation of polymetamorphic granulites. Many efforts to date high-grade gneisses from the CZ using PbSL garnet dating resulted in a large spread of ages (~ 2.0–2.6 Ga) that reflect the polymetamorphic nature of these complexly deformed high-grade rocks.     

The cost of achieving South Africa’s ‘fair share’ of global climate change mitigation

Global climate change mitigation action is hampered by systematic under-assessment of national ‘fair shares’, largely on the basis of perceived national interests. This paper aims to inform discussions centred on South Africa’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) by estimating (1) emissions reduction pathways for the country using the Climate Equity Reference Calculator (CERC) assuming a maximum 2°C aggregate warming target and (2) the likely economy-wide net mitigation costs or savings associated with reaching these pathways if known lower-cost mitigation measures, identified through the national mitigation potential analysis, are prioritised. The cumulative net savings associated with achieving the CERC ‘fair share’ emissions pathway, assuming the moderate use of low carbon power generation measures, would reach $5.3 billion by 2030. Net savings could be substantially greater reaching $46.8 billion by 2030 assuming power generation focuses on moving towards full decarbonisation. An unconditional commitment to the mitigation action implied by the ‘fair share’ emissions pathway therefore seems reasonable and prudent purely from the point of view of net country-wide savings. Only if power generation moves towards full decarbonisation would there be a reasonable chance of achieving the more ambitious CERC domestic emissions pathway. However, the significant additional cost associated with achieving the domestic emissions pathway should be conditional on international assistance.

Key policy insights

• South Africa can only achieve its ‘fair share’ of the global mitigation effort if greater use is made of renewable energy options, and can realise significant net savings if it does so.

• Further emissions reductions would incur costs and require significant upscaling of the share of renewable energy and full implementation of all non-power generation mitigation measures available.

• Committing to this further mitigation action contingent on international finance would both strengthen the nation’s position in climate negotiations and support the provision of finance for those vulnerable developing nations that bear little or no responsibility for climate change.