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121.
122.
三种非线性回归逐时气温预报比较订正 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
选取ECMWF和T639的2013年1月至2014年12月的数值预报场构造预报因子,基于神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数的非线性方法,预报地面逐时气温。试验结果显示,在单个方法预报误差较大时,3种方法的偏差订正集成方法更利于减小误差,通过偏差订正,3种非线性方法预报效果良好,平均绝对误差减小了0.5 ℃。在近1年独立样本的预报检验中,集成方法、神经网络、支持向量机和构造函数预报的平均绝对误差分别为1.5 ℃、1.7 ℃、1.8 ℃和1.4 ℃,总体上构造函数预报更为准确。 相似文献
123.
ZHOU Ping WEN An-bang YAN Dong-chun SHI Zhong-lin GUO Jin JU Zhan-sheng ZHANG Yi-lan 《山地科学学报》2014,11(2):526-534
Soil erosion becomes a serious environmental problem in the world, especially in western China. An effective management practice called the Grain for Green Program (GGP), which was launched in 1999, aims to reduce soil and water loss and alleviate the ecological environment problem in western China. Two typical counties in western China, the Zhongxian (in Chongqing Municipality) and Ansai (in Shaanxi Province) were chosen to evaluate the dynamic changes of land use and agricultural production structure before and after the implementation of the Program in this paper. The results showed that the cultivated land area was reduced by 7.08% from 1989 to 2003. The cultivated land per person was decreased by 8.42% during 1999-2003. Moreover, the stability index of the secondary sector of the economy was increased from 0.91 in the period 1990-1999 to 0.94 in the following ten years. In addition, the stability index of tertiary economic sector increased from 0.88 to 0.92 in Zhongxian county. Meanwhile, the cultivated land area was reduced by 15.48% from 1990 to 1999. The soil erosion modulus was decreased by 33.33% from 1999 to 2006. Also, the stability index of secondary and tertiary economic sectors was 0.86 in the period 1998-2002. However, it decreased by 77% during 2002 to 2007 in Ansai County. These results imply that the Grain for Green Program had different impact on the two regions. Several effective strategies of soil and water conservation have been carried out to ameliorate the sustainable development of ecological environment and economy in these two counties of western China. 相似文献
124.
Global climate change has evolved from a scientific problem into an economic and political problem oI worlOwloe rater- est. National perspectives play a crucial role in addressing climate change. Mutual understanding of perspectives is nec- essary to result in rational policies and a consensus among stakeholders with divergent interests. Conceptual frameworks for understanding the problem of climate change in China, the largest developing country and the largest greenhouse gas emitter, are of great significance to national and international efforts to address the problems of climate change. Chinese perceptions of climate change as a sustainable development problem have recently been in tension with an emerging Western perspective that frames climate change as a security issue. This paper explores Chinese perceptions of climate change as expressed in recent governmental policy statements, public opinion surveys, and academic scholarship with a focus on publications in Chinese-language journals, often unfamiliar in the West. It looks at the relationship between Chinese research and policy and finds that the Chinese policy frame of climate change as a sustainable development problem draws from the body of domestic research and is reflective of the perspectives and multidisciplinary approach of Chinese researchers in areas of climate change. 相似文献
125.
本文利用1987年美国FIFE资料及1986年6月TIPMEX资料,并利用大气长、短波一维辐射传输数值模式,计算了晴空大气状态下地面辐射参数(地面热辐射温度、地表反照率等)对大气长波冷却率、短波加热率廓线的影响。结果表明,地球表面对大气边界层内的热辐射结构影响很大,特别是在高原地区这种影响尤其显著。 相似文献
126.
菊花岛周围海域38个站表层沉积物的铁、锰、铝、钛、磷、有机质、氮、铜、锌、铅、镉、镍和汞等化学要素含量的Q型因子分析计算表明,本区可划分为三个化学元素沉积区:1.海流悬浮沉积区;2.近岸波浪作用区;3.波浪海流作用区。柱状沉积物中铁等化学元素的迁移、富集受氧化——还原界面的控制。 相似文献
127.
准确的传递函数对固体潮信息的变化分析是非常必要的.由于形变仪器的精确度非常高,长期以来只能对电路原理进行传递函数推算.通过阶跃响应法实验来测定DSQ水管倾斜仪传递函数,同时用激光干涉仪与水管倾斜仪输出进行比测,以确定仪器的精确传递函数. 相似文献
128.
Ju Weimin Fang Hongliang Tian Xiangjun Jiang Fei Zhan Wenfeng Liu Yang Wang Zhengxing He Jianfeng Wang Shaoqiang Peng Shushi Zhang Yongguang Zhou Yanlian Jia Binghao Yang Dongxu Fu Yu Li Rong Liu Jingxian Wang Haikun Li Guicai Chen Zhuoqi 《地球科学进展》2016,31(11):1105-1110
The Paris agreement signed in April, 2016 aims to balance global anthropogenic carbon emissions and terrestrial carbon sinks by the middle of the 21st century. To fulfill this goal, it is necessary to calculate carbon fluxes of different regions reliably. The global carbon assimilation system is an effective technique for achieving this goal. The Ministry of Science and Technology of China supports the project entitled as study on the global carbon assimilation system based on multisource remote sensing data through the national key research and development programs for global change and adaptation during the thirteen-five period. This project will develop synergic inversion techniques for retrieving key parameters of biological and atmospheric cycles and for assimilating multisource remote sensing and ground based data. Then, the high resolution global carbon assimilation system coupled with an ecological model will be constructed. This system is able to assimilate jointly multisource observation data and to optimize key model parameters, photosynthesis and respiration carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems, and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions. This system will be used to study quantitatively the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems and anthropogenic carbon emission fluxes of key regions and to identify the mechanisms driving the global terrestrial carbon sinks and sources. The outputs of this study will be helpful for the fulfillment of the key research and development programs for global change and adaptation and provide valuable data and technical support for the decision-making in China. 相似文献
129.
根据37年(1953~1989年)的有关气象资料分析表明,浙北地区当年3月温度,上年4~6月降水量,秋、冬季干湿度和年积温与当年东海热带气旋(指强度达到热带风暴以上的热带气旋以下统称台风)出现次数之间有着密切的相关性。在此基础上进一步分析了前期一些气象要素与登陆台风之间的关系,并由此分别建立预报东海台风出现多寡和台风是否登陆的判别式。从其拟合和试报结果来看,效果令人满意。 相似文献
130.
发头裸腹溞休眠卵发育的温度因子分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
测定了不同温度下发头裸腹溞(Moina irrasa)体眠卵的孵化时间及孵化率;取最先孵出和过半数孵出的两组数据依莱奥姆积温法则求得种群休眠卵最低临界温度为12.00℃,最低有效积温为441.61℃·h;最低亚致死高温点(即最适温度)为35.16℃,以及最低死亡高温点39.44℃。种群中过半数的临界温度为12.88℃,过半数有效积温为557.10℃·h,过半数的亚致死高温点为35.56℃以及过半数死亡高温点为39.49℃。讨论了这些参数在枝角类集约化培养中休眠卵的有效保存与启用所具有的实践意义。 相似文献