Analysis of the contribution of multiple factors to the recent decrease in discharge and sediment yield in the Yellow River Basin,China

The Yellow River basin is well known for its high sediment yield. However, this sediment yield has clearly decreased since the 1980s, especially after the year 2000. The annual average sediment yield was 1.2 billion tons before 2000, but has significantly decreased to 0.3 billion tons over the last 10 years. Changes in discharge and sediment yield for the Yellow River have attracted the attention of both the Central Government and local communities. This study aimed to identify the individual contributions of changes in precipitation and human activities (e.g. water conservancy projects, terracing, silt dams, socio-economic and needs, and soil and water conservation measures) to the decrease in discharge and sediment yield of the Yellow River. The study used both improved the hydrological method and the soil and water conservation method. The study focused on discharge analysis for the upper reaches and the investigation of sediments for the middle reaches of the river. The results showed that discharge and sediment yield have both presented significant decreasing trends over the past 50 years. Precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend over the same period. The annual average discharge decreased by 5.68 billion m³ above Lanzhou reach of the Yellow River from 2000 to 2012; human activities (e.g. socio-economic water use) contributed 43.4% of the total reduction, whereas natural factors (e.g. evaporation from lakes, wetlands and reservoirs) accounted for 56.6%. The decrease in annual discharge and sediment yield of the section between Hekouzhen station and Tongguan station were 12.4 billion m³ and 1.24 billion tons, respectively. Human activities contributed 76.5% and 72.2% of the total reduction in discharge and sediment yield, respectively, and were therefore the dominant factors in the changes in discharge and sediment yield of the Yellow River.     

Driving forces and their interactions of built-up land expansion based on the geographical detector – a case study of Beijing,China

Scientific interpretation of the driving forces of built-up land expansion is essential to urban planning and policy-making. In general, built-up land expansion results from the interactions of different factors, and thus, understanding the combined impacts of built-up land expansion is beneficial. However, previous studies have primarily been concerned with the separate effect of each driver, rather than the interactions between the drivers. Using the built-up land expansion in Beijing from 2000 to 2010 as a study case, this research aims to fill this gap. A spatial statistical method, named the geographical detector, was used to investigate the effects of physical and socioeconomic factors. The effects of policy factors were also explored using physical and socioeconomic factors as proxies. The results showed that the modifiable areal unit problem existed in the geographical detector, and 4000 m might be the optimal scale for the classification performed in this study. At this scale, the interactions between most factors enhanced each other, which indicated that the interactions had greater effects on the built-up land expansion than any single factor. In addition, two pairs of nonlinear enhancement, the greatest enhancement type, were found between the distance to rivers and two socioeconomic factors: the total investment in fixed assets and GDP. Moreover, it was found that the urban plans, environmental protection policies and major events had a great impact on built-up land expansion. The findings of this study verify that the geographical detector is applicable in analysing the driving forces of built-up land expansion. This study also offers a new perspective in researching the interactions between different drivers.     

Climate–growth relationship stability of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea crassifolia</Emphasis> on an elevation gradient,Qilian Mountain,Northwest China

Climate affects Picea crassifolia growth and climate change will lead to changes in the climate–growth relationship (i.e., the “divergence” phenomenon). However, standardization methods can also change the understanding of such a relationship. We tested the stability of this relationship by considering several variables: 1) two periods (1952–1980 and 1981–2009), 2) three elevations (2700, 3000, and 3300 m), and 3) chronologies detrended using cubic splines with two different flexibilities. With increasing elevation, the climatic factor limiting the radial growth of Picea crassifolia shifted from precipitation to temperature. At the elevation of 2700 m, the relationship between radial growth and mean temperature of the previous December changed so that the more flexible spline had a greater precipitation signal. At the elevation of 3000 m, positive correlation of radial growth with mean temperature and precipitation in September of the previous year became more significant. At the elevation of 3300 m, positive correlation between radial growth and precipitation of the current summer and the previous spring and autumn was no longer significant, whereas the positive correlation between radial growth and temperature of the current spring and summer strengthened. The detrending with the most flexible spline enhanced the precipitation signal at 2700 m, while that with the least flexible spline enhanced the temperature signal at 3300 m. All results indicated that the divergence phenomenon was affected by the climatic signals in the chronologies and that it was most dependent on the detrending method. This suggests it is necessary to select a suitable spline bootstrap for studies of growth divergence phenomena.     

Experimental study of motion characteristics of rock slopes with weak intercalation under seismic excitation

In order to investigate the effect of a weak intercalation on slope stability, a large-scale shaking table model test was conducted to study the dynamic response of rock slope models with weak intercalation. The dynamic response of the prototype slopes were studied in laboratory with the consideration of law of similitude. The initiation failure was observed in the rock slope model with a counter-tilt thin-weak intercalation firstly, not in the slope model with a horizontal thin-weak intercalation. Furthermore, it was interesting that the fracture site is shifted from crest top to the slope surface near the weak intercalation, which is different with the location of failure position in a normal layered slope. We also discussed the effect of the dip angle and the thickness of weak intercalation on the failure mechanism and instability mode of the layered rock slope. From the experimental result, it was noted that the stability of the slope with a counter-tilt weak intercalation could be worse than that of the other slopes under seismic excitation. The findings showed the difference of failure in slopes with a horizontal and counter weak intercalation, and implicated the further evaluation of failure of layered slopes caused by seismic loads.     

Analysis of urbanization based on center-of-gravity movement and characteristics in Songhua River basin of China and its southern source sub-basin between 1990 and 2010

Urbanization in modern times led to a series of development strategies that brought new opportunities in China. Rapid urbanization caused severe stress to the ecosystems and the environment. Using the center-of-gravity(COG) method and parameters such as population, economy, and land, we studied the urbanization pattern in Songhua River Basin and its southern source sub-basin from 1990 to 2010. Urbanization was analyzed based on the COG position, eccentric distance, movement direction of COG, and distance of COG movement. Various characteristics of urbanization in the southern source sub-basin of the Songhua River were explained in relation to the whole Songhua River Basin. Urbanization in the southern source sub-basin of the Songhua River is balanced, relatively advanced, and stable compared to the whole Songhua River Basin. The average eccentric distance between the urbanization COGs in the Songhua River′s south source basin indicated rapid expansion of land urbanization during the span of this study. A basic pattern of urbanization COG in the whole Songhua Basin was observed, but there existed differences among the three aspects of urbanization process. Land urbanization is still in its active stage, so future studies should focus on analysis of such urbanization trends.