1983年菏泽5.9级地震前后沂水泉氡的变化

沂水泉位于山东省沂水一汤头断裂带上。多年来的观测分析表明,影响沂水泉氡值变化的最大干扰是降雨。由于这种干扰存在着“记忆”滞后影响,所以用一般的相关分析难以将这种影响排除干净。本文对最小二乘法为建立模型的判据,用动态灰箱分析法拟合并推估观测系统的变化。在分析中用了四个状态变量：长趋势成分Ｌ（ｔ）、年周期变化成分Ｐ（ｔ）、降雨影响部分Ｒ（ｔ）和随机变化部分Ｓ（ｔ）。经过分析表明,沂水泉氡的长趋势部分１     

Group Time Delay in the Reflection of P-Polarized Electromagnetic Plane Waves at a Stratigraphic Interface

The group time delay (GTD) formulae of quasi-total reflection of inhomogeneous P-polarized electromagnetic waves (P-PEW, whose electric field parallels to the plane of incidence), caused by the Goos–Hänchen effect, is derived by the phase shift of the wave. A numerical example where the frequency equals to 1 GHz is given. The curves of calculating results show that there are three discontinuous points at the critical angle of phase shift vector, the critical angle of attenuation vector and 90^○. When the angle of incidence is equal to one of these three angles, the GTD will become infinite, and the electromagnetic wave will propagate along the interface. The GTD will be very large, when the angle of incidence is close to one of these three angles. The results indicate that there is an important relationship between the two critical angles and the conductivity and permittivity of the two strata, and that the GTD has an important relationship with the angle of incidence. These results can be used to determine the lithology of the strata and to delimit the interfaces of strata more effectively. It is suggested that this research may prove useful in electromagnetic logging analysis and, perhaps, in the design of logging instruments.     

Palaeoenvironment of mid- to late Holocene loess deposit of the southern margin of the Tarim Basin,NW China

Holocene environmental history in the Tarim Basin and the Taklimakan Desert is known mainly from isolated eolian and lacustrine deposits and remain puzzling. Here we present an adequately preserved loess section, covering the past 5000 years, at a highland (2,850 m a.s.l) on the northern slope of Kunlun Mountains. Pollen preserved in the section reveal a drying trend with significant moisture fluctuations around 3000–2600 cal yr BP and 1800 cal yr BP at the study site. Comparing the pollen, grain size from the same section provides a different scene occurred in the Tarim basin and the Taklimakan desert. Comparison of grain size to A/C ration of pollen suggests that active sand southward shifting in south margin of the desert is coincident with increasing moisture condition at the section locality, implying a casual link. This moisture pattern occurred at the upper and lower elevation of the slope is best explained by the vertical variation of local precipitation along the slope.     

Comparison of Two Methods Used to Model Shape Parameters of Pareto Distributions

Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters.     

一个被动大陆边缘的“开”“合”史及找矿标志——以赣西北震旦系至下古生界为例

本文根据赣西北地区震旦系至志留系基本层序和板内构造演化,可把古板块构造发展划分为4个阶段:开裂期(Z_1l-Z_2p)以中、小规模的重力流和凝缩段为特征;成熟发展期(∈_1-∈_3~1),以沉降沉积作用为主;萎缩期(∈_3~2-O_2h)以大规模重力流和混生动物群为特征;闭合期(O_3-S_3)以双幕式沉积为特征。同时阐述了在板块发展的各个阶段,不能忽视其成矿作用。     

南极数值天气预报应用与研究进展

多个业务化的全球预报模式和有限区域预报模式应用于南极地区,已经成为南极天气预报和南极气候诊断研究的主要工具.现今南极地区的数值天气预报模式在模拟南极大气环流和天气系统方面性能不够理想,原因是多方面的:南极天气气候的特殊性(包括边界层的参数化、中尺度气旋等)、模式对南极复杂地形的描述不够充分、由于缺乏观测资料而使得模式的...     

Quantitative Assessment of Impacts of Regional Climate and Human Activities on Saline-alkali Land Changes： A Case Study of Qian＇an County, Jilin Province

Interdecadal and interannual variations of saline-alkali land area in Qian’an County, Jilin Province, China were comprehensively analyzed in this paper by means of satellite remote sensing interpretation, field flux observations and regional climate diagnosis. The results show that on the interannual scale, the impact of climate factors accounts for 71.6% of the total variation of the saline-alkali land area, and that of human activities accounts for 28.4%. Therefore the impact of climate factors is obviously greater than that of human activities. On the interdecadal scale, the impact of climate factors on the increase of the saline-alkali land area accounts for 43.2%, and that of human activities accounts for 56.8%. The impact of human activities on the variation of saline-alkali land area is very clear on the interdecadal scale, and the negative impact of human activities on the environment should not be negligible. Besides, changes in the area of heavy saline-alkali land have some indication for development of saline-alkali land in Qian’an County.     

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2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震前中期和短期预测依据与启示

2020年6月26日新疆于田6.4级地震发生在2020年度全国地震危险区内,震前作出了较好的中期（年度）和短期（月尺度和周尺度）预测,是少有的地球物理观测能力较低地区的强震前中期和短临预测较好震例。本文梳理了中期和短期预测的主要依据及其预测效能,研究表明,震前中期异常主要有流动地磁、多方法组合、5.0级地震平静打破、6.0级地震的准周期活动等;短期异常有4.0级地震活动图像、中源地震影响、于田垂直摆倾斜EW、于田GNSS基准站EW位移、和田GNSS基准站EW位移等。在总结震前分析预测过程的基础上,提出针对地球物理观测密度低地区的地震危险区论证和短临跟踪的建议,为该类地区的地震危险区判定及跟踪工作提供宝贵经验。