基于专家知识的神经元网络方法及其在潜在震源区定量划分中的应用

将专家知识和神经元网络方法结合起来，利用专家知识和规则构造规则样本的方法来提高神经元网络学习样本的质量，通过神经元网络对规则样本的学习，形成基于专家知识的神经元网络模型。在潜在震源区划分专家系统中有关规则的基础上，将基于专家知识的神经元网络方法引入到潜在震源区定量划分中，并以首都圈地区为例，对其潜在震源区作了定量划分，结果表明，规则样本能较好的反映专家的知识和规则，利用构造规则样本的方法，可以提高     

S-H方程Cauchy问题整体解的加权估计

对下列S-H方程的Cauchy问题（其中r=|x|，v=r-1*|u|2）的整体解，给出加权下界估计，并进一步获得整体解的加权等式，同时讨论了其解的非整体存在性。     

中国西南部特提斯构造域浅成低温热液型金矿分类及时空分布特征

中国西南部特提斯构造域浅成低温热液型金矿床划分为火山-次火山热液型金矿床、地下热卤水型金矿床和火山热泉型金矿床3个大类及7个亚类.研究了各类型金矿的地球化学特征,在此基础上论述了区内浅成低温热液型金矿床的时空分布,划分出6个成矿区和21个成矿带.     

Three-dimensional thermo-rheological structure of the lithosphere in the North China Craton determined by integrating multiple observations: Implications for the formation of rifts

The lithosphere of the North China Craton(NCC) has experienced significant destruction and deformation since the Mesozoic, a notable feature of which is the widespread extensional structure and lithospheric thinning in the eastern NCC. Since the thermo-rheological structure of the lithosphere is one of the main factors controlling these dynamic processes, a threedimensional thermo-rheological model of the present lithosphere in the NCC was developed based on a geophysical-petrological method using a variety of data, and its relationship with the extensional structures and the formation of rifts was further analyzed.Our results show that the western NCC is characterized by thick lithosphere, low Moho temperature(T_(Moho)600°C), as well as high lithospheric strength and mantle-crust strength ratio(S_m/S_c1). The deformation of the western narrow rift is consistent with the localized deformation dominated by the strength of lithospheric mantle. On the other hand, the lithosphere in the eastern NCC is characterized by extensive thinning(with lithospheric thickness of about 80–110 km). However, the decrease of lithospheric strength is not uniform, with high strength(10×10~(12) Pa m) observed in some areas(such as the Bohai Bay Basin and Hehuai Basin). Most of the eastern lithosphere is characterized by high TMoho(600–750°C) and low S_m/S_c(1), which is inconsistent with the widespread extensional structure in the eastern NCC. Incorporating results from palaeo-geothermal and petrological studies,we developed a thermo-rheological structure model of the lithosphere at different evolutionary stages of the NCC, and suggested that the eastern NCC had a significantly thinned and weakened lithosphere in the early stages of the formation of the rift, leading to a regional distributed extension deformation dominated by crustal strength, which eventually evolved into a series of wide rifts. However, the cooling and accretion of the lithosphere in the subsequent stages significantly increased the strength of the lithospheric mantle, resulting in the inconsistency between the present thermo-rheological structure of the lithosphere and the extensional structure formed in the past.     

河流支流入汇口处水利工程防洪设计水位研究:以珠江流域西江桂平航运枢纽为例

修建在河流支流入汇口处的水利工程,同时受干、支流洪水共同作用,其防洪水位不但与洪水组合特性有关,还与洪水、水利工程行洪的耦合关系有关.已有采用设计洪水重现期对应的特征洪水组合,或者直接采用经验洪水组合进行调洪计算得到防洪设计水位的方法无法有效反映洪水与水利工程的相互作用.本文结合防洪标准的本质,利用Copula-蒙特卡罗模拟方法对修建在支流入汇口处的水利工程的防洪设计水位进行计算,并以珠江流域西江支流郁江广西桂平航运枢纽水闸为例展开研究.结果表明:Copula-蒙特卡罗模拟方法可以有效考虑干、支流洪水组合特性及其与水利工程行洪的耦合关系,以其计算得到的防洪设计水位唯一且可保证达到防洪标准的要求,可有效克服利用洪水重现期确定防洪设计水位存在的不确定性;在干、支流洪水共同作用下,以设计洪水重现期的不同特征组合计算得到的防洪设计水位相差非常大,且与达到防洪标准要求的防洪设计水位相比完全偏离了合理的误差范围,不宜以设计洪水重现期确定防洪设计水位;利用经验洪水组合计算难以合理反映不同工程的洪水及工程特性.研究成果可为修建在支流入汇口处受干、支流洪水共同影响的水利工程防洪设计提供更合理的理论依据和思路.     

不同干扰条件下纳帕海湿地植物群落优势种群的生态位

2011年5、7、10月在纳帕海湖滨湿地选择3种不同人为干扰生境类型,每个干扰生境布设3个固定样方,对湖滨湿地植物群落中主要种群的空间生态位和季节特征进行研究.结果表明:在3种干扰水平维度上,春、夏、秋3个季节湖滨湿地植物生态位宽度指数前4位由大到小变化的顺序分别是:春季:绵毛酸模叶蓼(0.9731) >华扁穗草(0.8040) >平车前(0.6468) >毛果弹裂碎米荠(0.5021);夏季:平车前(0.8674) >荠(0.8581) >华扁穗草(0.8440) >绵毛酸模叶蓼(0.7814);秋季:华扁穗草(0.9698) >绵毛酸模叶蓼(0.7730) >平车前(0.6650) >西南委陵菜(0.6647).因此,湖滨湿地植物的生态位宽度在不同干扰水平上会随着季节的变化出现显著的改变.同样,生态位重叠和生态位分化随着季节的变化也会发生明显的改变,其中春、秋季的生态位重叠程度低,分化程度高,且春季较秋季略强,而夏季的生态位重叠程度高且分化程度低.这些结果为揭示纳帕海湖滨湿地植物群落格局与动态及人为干扰影响生物多样性的生态过程提供了基础资料,同时为进一步深入研究不同人为干扰下湖滨湿地植物群落中主要种群敏感性反应的规律提供了科学依据.     

荆江近岸河床演变对水沙条件的响应探讨

近岸河床的变化对于险工段河势稳定、护岸及堤防的安全产生影响。1990年代以来,尤其三峡水库蓄水运行后,上游来沙大幅减少,荆江河床普遍发生了冲刷,近岸河床发生了相应调整。主要结合荆江河段近岸河床监测资料及已有分析成果,从三个方面分析近岸河床演变对水沙条件变化的响应,一是近岸河床冲刷坑特征值与水沙条件的关系;二是近岸岸坡稳定性对水位变幅的响应程度;三是近岸河床平滩河道形态尺度对水沙过程的响应程度。通过计算分析得出近岸河床特征值与水沙定性及定量的关系。     

京津冀地区县域环境胁迫时空格局及驱动因素

环境胁迫反映人类生产生活过程中污染物输出对区域环境系统产生的综合压力。本文基于县域污染物排放和人口社会经济数据库,运用熵权法综合测度县域环境胁迫指数（ESI）,解析2012—2016年京津冀地区环境胁迫的时空格局及各类主体功能区环境胁迫特征,并针对县域环境胁迫的空间效应,在STIRPAT模型框架基础上,运用地理加权回归方法定量估计县域环境胁迫的社会经济驱动力。结果表明：① 京津冀地区面临的环境胁迫态势显著缓解,2012年以来ESI降幅达到54.68%。其中,以北京、唐山、天津、石家庄等中心城区以及滨海新区下降最为显著,县域环境胁迫程度由中心城区向外围呈梯度递减,到2016年环境胁迫高等级县域已经消除;② 5年间京津冀地区县域环境胁迫的空间溢出效应趋强,并在津唐地区呈现空间锁定和路径依赖;③ 优化开发和重点开发区域两类城市化地区是京津冀水气环境的主要承压区,其环境胁迫程度占京津冀地区全域的65.98%,仍然是环境污染防治与管控的重点区域;④ 人口规模和经济发展水平是县域环境胁迫的控制性因素,此外还受环境处理技术水平、农业生产投入强度、国土开发强度以及城镇化等因素影响;⑤ 各驱动因素对县域环境胁迫的驱动作用存在空间异质性,需针对驱动力作用强度及其空间差异,采取差别化环境治理与源头减排对策,精准提升京津冀地区环境协同管制效果。     

Quasi-Simultaneous Flux Emergence in the Events of October – November 2003

From late October to the beginning of November 2003, a series of intense solar eruptive events took place on the Sun. More than six active regions (ARs), including three large ARs (NOAA numbers AR 10484, AR 10486, and AR 10488), were involved in the activity. Among the six ARs, four of them bear obviously quasi-simultaneous emergence of magnetic flux. Based on the global Hα and SOHO/EIT EUV observations, we found that a very long filament channel went through the six ARs. This implies that there is a magnetic connection among these ARs. The idea of large-scale magnetic connectivity among the ARs is supported by the consistency of the same chirality in the three major ARs and in their associated magnetic clouds. Although the detailed mechanisms for the quasi-simultaneous flux emergence and the large-scale flux system formation need to be extensively investigated, the observations provide new clues in studying the global solar activity.     

行星际磁云研究新进展

从飞船的观测结果、磁云形态及演化的理论模型、磁流体动力学(MHD)数值模拟、激波对磁云的作用、多重磁云等5个方面，评述了行星际磁云的研究成果及最新进展。在太阳峰年，大部分的非重现性地磁暴都与磁云有关。最近的研究表明，压缩后的磁云往往能产生更大的地磁效应。深入研究磁云对空间天气研究有着特殊的价值，特别是对提高大磁暴的预报水平有着重要帮助。