压力型锚杆支护滑坡的地震动力响应特性研究

为研究地震作用下锚固滑坡的动力响应特征及压力型锚杆的受力机制,采用ABAQUS有限元软件建立了压力型锚杆联合格构梁支护的锚固滑坡模型,在此基础上,分析了锚固滑坡的加速度响应规律、地震动参数对加速度响应的影响以及压力型锚杆的受力特征等。结果表明:地震作用下锚固滑坡具有明显的高程放大效应,坡顶响应最强;不同类型的地震波作用时,由于其频谱特性的差异,锚固滑坡的加速度响应不同,锚固滑坡对输入地震波的低频段存在放大作用,对高频段具有滤波作用;随地震波幅值的增大,锚固滑坡的加速度响应呈先减小后增大的趋势。对于同一根锚杆而言,锚杆杆体轴力分布较均匀;对于同列不同排的锚杆而言,各排锚杆杆体的轴力值差异较大,自上而下呈"C"型分布,底排锚杆和顶排锚杆承担大部分荷载。研究结果对于压力型锚杆支护滑坡的抗震设计具有一定的指导意义。      

The Interaction of Successive Coronal Mass Ejections: A Review

We present a review of the different aspects associated with the interaction of successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the corona and inner heliosphere, focusing on the initiation of series of CMEs, their interaction in the heliosphere, the particle acceleration associated with successive CMEs, and the effect of compound events on Earth’s magnetosphere. The two main mechanisms resulting in the eruption of series of CMEs are sympathetic eruptions, when one eruption triggers another, and homologous eruptions, when a series of similar eruptions originates from one active region. CME?–?CME interaction may also be associated with two unrelated eruptions. The interaction of successive CMEs has been observed remotely in coronagraphs (with the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment – LASCO – since the early 2000s) and heliospheric imagers (since the late 2000s), and inferred from in situ measurements, starting with early measurements in the 1970s. The interaction of two or more CMEs is associated with complex phenomena, including magnetic reconnection, momentum exchange, the propagation of a fast magnetosonic shock through a magnetic ejecta, and changes in the CME expansion. The presence of a preceding CME a few hours before a fast eruption has been found to be connected with higher fluxes of solar energetic particles (SEPs), while CME?–?CME interaction occurring in the corona is often associated with unusual radio bursts, indicating electron acceleration. Higher suprathermal population, enhanced turbulence and wave activity, stronger shocks, and shock?–?shock or shock?–?CME interaction have been proposed as potential physical mechanisms to explain the observed associated SEP events. When measured in situ, CME?–?CME interaction may be associated with relatively well organized multiple-magnetic cloud events, instances of shocks propagating through a previous magnetic ejecta or more complex ejecta, when the characteristics of the individual eruptions cannot be easily distinguished. CME?–?CME interaction is associated with some of the most intense recorded geomagnetic storms. The compression of a CME by another and the propagation of a shock inside a magnetic ejecta can lead to extreme values of the southward magnetic field component, sometimes associated with high values of the dynamic pressure. This can result in intense geomagnetic storms, but can also trigger substorms and large earthward motions of the magnetopause, potentially associated with changes in the outer radiation belts. Future in situ measurements in the inner heliosphere by Solar Probe+ and Solar Orbiter may shed light on the evolution of CMEs as they interact, by providing opportunities for conjunction and evolutionary studies.     

人工神经网络和决策树模型在滑坡易发性分析中的性能对比

机器学习模型广泛应用于区域性滑坡易发性分析。模型的选择关系到评价结果的可信度、准确率和稳定性。现有滑坡易发性分析模型对比研究侧重模型的预测精度。模型的稳定性和数据量敏感性对机器学习模型的性能评估同样非常重要。本文以福建省南平市蔡源流域为研究区,以四川省绵阳市北川县为验证区,从预测精度、稳定性和数据量敏感性3个方面深入对比BP（Back Propagation）人工神经网络模型和CART（Classification and Regression Tree）决策树模型在滑坡易发性分析中的效果,主要结论如下:① 在逐渐增加一定数量训练样本的过程中,BP人工神经网络模型预测精度的增长率更高。在蔡源流域内,当训练样本数量增加10 000时,BP人工神经网络模型的预测精度上升5.22%,CART决策树模型的预测精度上升2.11%。② BP人工神经网络的预测精度高于CART决策树模型,且较为稳定。在100组数据集上,BP人工神经网络模型验证集预测精度的均值和验证集滑坡样本预测精度的均值分别为81.60%和84.86%,高于CART决策树模型的72.97%和76.59%。与此同时,BP人工神经网络模型对应预测精度的标准差分别是0.32%和0.37%,小于CART决策树模型的0.35%和0.67%。③ BP人工神经网络模型分析的滑坡易发区相比CART决策树模型,更接近实际滑坡的空间分布。最后,北川县的验证实验也出现了相同的现象。     

韧性剪切过程中金沉淀富集的新机制

一般认为,金的沉淀是因为成矿热液在宏观上已达到金络合物失稳、分解的条件。笔者认为金在黄铁矿、毒砂等硫化物矿物中富集的原因,是这些矿物生长时造成了在其生长面附近的微区内会出现Ｅｈ值及（或）Ｓ＾２－、［ＡｓＳ］＾３－等浓度的局部降低,以致引起了金络合物在此微区内的失稳、分解,分解出来的金将就近附着在矿物的生长面上及随后被包围。成矿热液此时在宏观上不一定已达到金络合物的分解条件。韧性剪切过程中石英普遍会     

川藏联网工程地质条件分析

川藏联网工程是我国首个进藏的电网工程,工程始于四川乡城县,途径巴塘县,止于西藏昌都市,全长1500多公里。川藏联网工程地处青藏高原一级阶梯向云贵高原二级阶梯急剧过渡地带,以及印度洋板块向欧亚板块俯冲的边缘区,经过金沙江、巴楚河、定曲河、澜沧江,地势西高东低、北高南低,海拔高程在2400～5000m之间,平均海拔3850m,最高海拔为4918m。该工程是世界上海拔最高的电网工程,工程区位于世界上地质构造最为复杂、地质灾害分布最广泛地区,对工程施工和安全运营产生极大的挑战。本文根据区域及线路沿线的地质资料（包括工程沿线县市地质灾害调查与区划资料、勘测设计资料）以及遥感影像等,研究川藏联网输电线路的地质环境条件,并根据沿线的地形地貌、地层岩性、断裂构造条件及地质灾害的分布情况,进行了工程地质条件分区,将全线分为工程地质条件极差、差、较差、较好、好等5大类,并对每一分区的工程地质条件进行了详细分析,确保川藏联网工程顺利建成。     

岩脉多次侵入条件下斜坡变形破坏模式及稳定性分析

岩质斜坡受到花岗岩脉的多次侵入,坡体结构和岩体结构均有较大的改变,因此斜坡的变形破坏模式和稳定性均有可能发生变化。本文以雅砻江中游楞古水电站坝址区嘎夏帕斜坡为例,对多次花岗岩脉侵入条件下斜坡的变形破坏模式和稳定性进行分析。嘎夏帕斜坡原本为陡倾中薄层砂岩组成的逆向坡,岩体完整性较好,稳定性较高; 由于受到花岗岩脉的多次侵入,坡体变成砂岩和岩脉互层的结构,在岩脉挤压作用下,大部分岩体呈碎裂状,完整性差,坡体的变形模式由弯曲-倾倒式变为挡墙溃决式。中部完整性较好的砂岩成为挡墙,和前部岩脉一起阻止后部大方量碎裂状岩体下滑,但是随着前部脉体的失稳破坏,斜坡有可能发生挡墙溃决式整体滑坡。并通过数值模拟软件3DEC进行了验证,计算结果与定性分析一致。本文的结论可以为此类斜坡的稳定性分析和防治提供理论支持,具有一定的参考价值和实际意义。     

The Dependence of the Geoeffectiveness of Interplanetary Flux Rope on Its Orientation,with Possible Application to Geomagnetic Storm Prediction

Interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) are one of the main sources of large non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. With the aid of a force-free flux rope model, the dependence of the intensity of geomagnetic activity (indicated by Dst index) on the axial orientation (denoted by θ and φ in GSE coordinates) of the magnetic cloud is analyzed theoretically. The distribution of the Dst values in the (θ, φ) plane is calculated by changing the axial orientation for various cases. It is concluded that (i) geomagnetic storms tend to occur in the region of θ<0°, especially in the region of θ≲−45°, where larger geomagnetic activity could be created; (ii) the intensity of geomagnetic activity varies more strongly with θ than with φ; (iii) when the parameters B ₀ (the magnetic field strength at the flux rope axis), R ₀ (the radius of the flux rope), or V (the bulk speed) increase, or |D| (the shortest distance between the flux rope axis and the x-axis in GSE coordinates) decreases, a flux rope not only can increase the intensity of geomagnetic activity, but also is more likely to create a storm, however the variation of n (the density) only has a little effect on the intensity; (iv) the most efficient orientation (MEO) in which a flux rope can cause the largest geomagnetic activity appears at φ∼0° or ∼ 180°, and some value of θ which depends mainly on D; (v) the minimum Dst value that could be caused by a flux rope is the most sensitive to changes in B ₀ and V of the flux rope, and for a stronger and/or faster MC, a wider range of orientations will be geoeffective. Further, through analyzing 20 MC-caused moderate to large geomagnetic storms during 1998 – 2003, a long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms on the basis of the flux rope model is proposed and assessed. The comparison between the theoretical results and the observations shows that there is a close linear correlation between the estimated and observed minimum Dst values. This suggests that using the ideal flux rope to predict practical MC-caused geomagnetic storms is applicable. The possibility of the long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms is discussed briefly.     

具有时变时滞的数据采样无人船舵减摇系统稳定性分析

本文研究了基于数据采样的无人船舵减摇闭环控制系统的稳定性.考虑到采样过程存在延迟现象,引用动态时滞区间的方法,构造相应的Lyapunov-Krasovskii泛函（LKF）.此方法将固定时滞区间扩展成为动态时滞区间,不仅放宽了时滞区间上界和下界的限制,还能同时获得基于线性矩阵不等式（LMI）的更小保守性的相关稳定性判据.最终可以获得一个更宽松的标准来分析基于数据采样的无人船舵减摇闭环控制系统的稳定性.最后,举例说明了所提出方法的有效性.     

内蒙古大兴安岭林区极端气温事件变化特征

利用内蒙古大兴安岭林区11个气象站1971~2014年日平均气温数据,采用线性趋势、Morlet小波分析、克里金插值法对内蒙古大兴安岭林区极端气温的年变化进行分析。研究表明：极端高温天气和生物生长季天数在20世纪80年代中期以后呈显著增多趋势,极端低温天气呈显著减少趋势;在空间分布上,所有站点极端高温天气和生物生长季天数呈上升趋势,极端低温天气呈下降趋势,但空间差异明显。极端低温天气主要受27、18、11、7 a时间尺度周期影响。极端高温天气28 a左右周期振荡最为强烈,视为第一主周期,对极端高温天气影响最为显著,在2018年以后的大约8 a间（2019~2026年）极端高温天气可能会更加频繁。生物生长季受28 a时间尺度周期影响,且在2015~2022年生物生长季天数增长处于偏大期。     

折劈发育条件的分析——以鞍山附近元古宙地体之折劈(S2)为例

本文以辽宁省鞍山附近元古宙千枚岩和片岩中的折劈S₂为论述的基础。按照简单剪切原理计算出发育折劈的岩石中的γ(剪应变)值。通过γ等值线图及断面图、T_M/T_QF-α相关图和变形标志(石英)形态比的研究,初步认为,折劈岩石中矿物组成、结构、微构造和α角等的明显“分异”现象,主要由剪应变和伴随发生的物质迁移所造成。有限应变状态的特点是:剪应变高的带(M)和剪应变较低的带(QF)相间排列。相邻带剪应变差异控制着扩散物质迁移机制,对微构造(如微褶皱)的生成,有重要作用。折劈生成于T低于500℃,P 约为5kb 左右的绿片岩相变质环境,它标志着地壳处于区域性抬升状态,相继产生的共轭折劈和膝折带(属于 D,构造),则表明已抬升到足以引起岩石总体体积扩张的高度。