Verification of predicted non-linear site response during the 1995 Hyogo-Ken Nanbu earthquake

The linear and non-linear responses of surface soil layers have been predicted through the simultaneous simulation test against the observed ground motions at the six sites in Kobe City during the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. The total stress analysis method and the effective stress analysis method have been applied for the rough and detailed verification of the predicted non-linear dynamic behavior at the PIS and RKI sites including the liquefaction phenomenon. The shear strain distribution along depth, the ratio of excess pore water pressure to initial effective stress, the liquefaction strength parameters to initial effective stress, and the stress–strain curve during the earthquake at the PIS site have been investigated when the predicted ground motion could simulate successfully the observed acceleration time histories and response spectra in the non-linear range.     

Transit time evaluation using a chloride concentration input step shift after forest cutting in a Japanese headwater catchment

Mean transit times were estimated for a small headwater catchment in Japan (the Fukuroyamasawa Experimental Watershed) using the step shift in input chloride (Cl^?) concentrations that occurred immediately after an episode of forest clear‐cutting. Measured Cl^? concentrations in stream water began to decrease immediately after clear‐cutting, and this trend continued for 6 years. Before clear‐cutting, the input Cl^? concentrations were controlled by wet and dry deposition processes, and most of the dry Cl^? deposition was collected by the forest canopy and reached the ground as throughfall and stemflow. After clear‐cutting, dry deposition was no longer collected by the canopy in this way, thus causing a sharp decrease in input Cl^? concentrations. By comparing measured Cl^? concentrations in stream water with estimates based on the input and evaporative Cl^? concentrations, it was shown that the decrease in stream water Cl^? concentrations was caused mainly by this step shift in the Cl^? input. It was proposed that the change in Cl^? concentrations after forest cutting could be used to represent the replacement of ‘old’ water that existed before cutting by ‘new’ water that was supplied after cutting. The breakthrough curve for the new water fraction gave an approximately exponential distribution of transit times in flow‐corrected time. The mean flow‐corrected transit time was estimated as 1068 days (runoff: 3497 mm). It was therefore concluded that the step change in input Cl^? concentrations immediately following forest clear‐cutting could be successfully used to estimate transit times for the entire catchment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterization of the Heterogeneous Source Model of Intraslab Earthquakes Toward Strong Ground Motion Prediction

We characterize the heterogeneous source slip model of intraslab earthquakes to compare source scaling properties with those of inland crustal and subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes. We extracted rupture area (S), total area of asperity (S _a), average slip (D) and average slip on asperity (D _a) of eleven intraslab earthquakes following the procedure proposed by Somerville et al. (Seism Res Lett 70:59?C80, 1999) and proposed the empirical scaling relationship formula of S, S _a, and D for intraslab earthquakes. Under the same seismic moment, an intraslab earthquake has a smaller rupture area and total area of asperity, and smaller average slip than an inland crustal earthquake. The area ratio of asperity area and total rupture area of intraslab earthquakes are similar to those of inland crustal earthquakes. The strong motion generation area (SMGA) scaling of intraslab earthquakes appears self-similar, and those results support the idea the characterized source model of intraslab earthquakes can be modeled in a manner similar to that of inland crustal earthquakes.     

Meteorological influences of eddy-resolving ocean assimilation around the cold tongue to the north of the Japanese islands during winter 2004/2005

Use of ocean data assimilation in meteorological applications is expected to reveal the influence of cloud-covered oceanic mesoscale processes on wintertime weather and climate in coastal areas. In particular, eddy-resolving Ocean Circulation Model (OCM) data assimilation that reproduces seasonally persistent oceanic mesoscale eddies is useful when simulating coastal precipitation. In the present study, the OCM-assimilation sea surface temperature (SST) is applied to a long-term atmospheric simulation over the Japan/East Sea area in the 2004/2005 winter season (December–February, DJF), to investigate seasonal and daily influences of oceanic mesoscale eddies on precipitation. The simulated winter precipitation is improved by the OCM assimilation via the DJF evaporation around a cold tongue. The strong intrusion of the southeast-directed cold tongue reduces the degree of overestimation by coastal precipitation simulations in December and January. In contrast, the ocean assimilation barely improves the simulation results in February because of weak intrusion of the cold tongue. In December and January, an abruptly large anomaly of northwesterly surface wind (> 1 m s^?1) resulting from the OCM assimilation often influences 3-hour precipitation in the downstream area of the cold tongue. In contrast, the slowly-varying anomaly of evaporation does not necessarily lead to daily precipitation anomalies, although the DJF evaporation anomaly is important in the DJF precipitation.     

Source Scaling of Inland Crustal Earthquake Sequences in Japan Using the S-Wave Coda Spectral Ratio Method

We estimate corner frequencies and stress drops for 298 events ranging from M _w 3.2–7.0 in 17 inland crustal earthquake sequences in Japan to investigate the source scaling and variation in stress drops. We obtain the source spectral ratio from observed records by the S-wave coda spectral ratio method. The advantage of using the S-wave coda is in obtaining much more stable source spectral ratios than using direct S-waves. We carefully examine the common shape of the decay of coda envelopes between event pair records. The corner frequency and stress drop are estimated by modeling the observed source spectral ratio with the omega-square source spectral model. We investigate the dependences of stress drops on some tectonic effects such as regionality, focal mechanism, and source depth. The principal findings are as follows: (1) a break in self-similar source scaling is found in our dataset. Events larger than M _w 4.5 show larger stress drops than those of smaller events. (2) Stress drops of aftershocks are mostly smaller than those of mainshocks in each sequence. (3) There are no systematic differences between stress drops of events occurring inside and outside the Niigata-Kobe Tectonic Zone in Japan. (4) Clear dependence of the faulting type on stress drops cannot be seen. (5) Stress drops of aftershocks depend on their source depth. (6) The crack size obtained from the corner frequency corresponds to the total rupture area of heterogeneous slip models for large events.     

Relativistic expansion of magnetic loops at the self-similar stage

We obtained self-similar solutions of relativistically expanding magnetic loops taking into account the azimuthal magnetic fields. We neglect stellar rotation and assume axisymmetry and a purely radial flow. As the magnetic loops expand, the initial dipole magnetic field is stretched into the radial direction. When the expansion speed approaches the light speed, the displacement current reduces the toroidal current and modifies the distribution of the plasma lifted up from the central star. Since these self-similar solutions describe the free expansion of the magnetic loops, i.e.  d v /d t = 0  , the equations of motion are similar to those of the static relativistic magnetohydrodynamics. This allows us to estimate the total energy stored in the magnetic loops by applying the virial theorem. This energy is comparable to that of the giant flares observed in magnetars.     

Initial behavior of granite in response to injection of CO2-saturated fluid

To understand the initial reactions of granite in a CO₂-saturated hydrothermal system, experiments were conducted using a batch-type autoclave over a temperature range of 100–350 °C at up to 250 bar and numerical computations of phase equilibria based on the experimental results were carried out. The experiments showed that the dissolution of granite and the deposition of secondary minerals were encouraged by the addition of CO₂. Solution chemistry and examination of the granite’s surface texture suggested that its initial dissolution is characterized by the release of Na and Ca (from the dissolution of plagioclase) and that initial precipitation occurs by deposition of some secondary minerals on to plagioclase and/or biotite in the CO₂-saturated system. However, the effect of CO₂ was small at 350 °C owing to the low activity of H₂CO₃. According to EDX analysis and numerical phase equilibrium calculations, the secondary minerals formed might be kaolinite, muscovite, smectite and calcite. That is, the granite as a whole might have the potential to take-up dissolved CO₂. The results suggest that the alteration of granite under CO₂-saturated hydrothermal conditions has the potential to capture CO₂ when it is injected at moderate temperatures (150–250 °C) into granite-hosted rock masses.     

Coastal vulnerability assessment of the future sea level rise in Udupi coastal zone of Karnataka state, west coast of India

Udupi coast in Karnataka state, along the west coast of India, selected as a study area, is well known for sandy beaches, aquaculture ponds, lush greenery, temples and major and minor industries. It lies between 13°00′00″–13°45′00″ north latitudes and 74°47′30″–74°30′00″ east longitudes, the length of the coastline is 95 km, and is oriented along the NNW–SSE direction. It is vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise (SLR) due to its low topography and its high ecological and touristy value. The present study has been carried out with a view to calculate the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to know the high and low vulnerable areas and area of inundation due to future SLR, and land loss due to coastal erosion. Both conventional and remotely sensed data were used and analysed through the modelling technique and by using ERDAS Imagine and geographical information system software. The rate of erosion was 0.6018 km²/yr during 2000–2006 and around 46 km of the total 95 km stretch is under critical erosion. Out of the 95 km stretch coastline, 59% is at very high risk, 7% high, 4% moderate and 30% in the low vulnerable category, due to SLR. Results of the inundation analysis indicate that 42.19 km² and 372.08 km² of the land area will be submerged by flooding at 1 m and 10 m inundation levels. The most severely affected sectors are expected to be the residential and recreational areas, agricultural land, and the natural ecosystem. As this coast is planned for future coastal developmental activities, measures such as building regulation, urban growth planning, development of an integrated coastal zone management, strict enforcement of the Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Act 1991, monitoring of impacts and further research in this regard are recommended for the study area.     

The roles of channels and hillslopes in rainfall/run‐off lag times during intense storms in a steep catchment

The response time (lag time) between rainfall input and run‐off output in headwater catchments is a key parameter for flood prediction. Lag times are expected to be controlled by run‐off processes, both on hillslopes and in channels. To demonstrate these effects on peak lag times within a 4.5‐km² catchment, we measured stream water levels at up to 16 channel locations at 1‐min intervals and compared the lag times with topographic indices describing the length and gradient of the hillslope and channel flow path. We captured storm events with a total precipitation of 38–198 mm and maximum hourly precipitation intensity of 9–90 mm/hr. There were positive relationships between lag time and flow path length as well as the ratio of the flow path length and the square root of the gradient of channels for the most intense storms, demonstrating that channel flow paths generally defined the variation in lag times. Topographic analysis showed that hillslope flow path lengths were similar among locations, whereas channel flow path length increased almost one order of magnitude with a 100‐fold increase in catchment area. Thus, the relative importance of hillslope flow path decreased with increasing catchment area. Our results indicate that the variation in lag times is small when hillslopes are sufficiently wet; thus, catchment‐scale variation in lag times can be explained almost entirely by channel processes. Detailed topographic channel information can improve prediction of flood peak timing, whereas hillslopes can be treated as homogeneous during large flood events.