Analytical methods for error propagation in planar space–time prisms

The space–time prism demarcates all locations in space–time that a mobile object or person can occupy during an episode of potential or unobserved movement. The prism is central to time geography as a measure of potential mobility and to mobile object databases as a measure of location possibilities given sampling error. This paper develops an analytical approach to assessing error propagation in space–time prisms and prism–prism intersections. We analyze the geometry of the prisms to derive a core set of geometric problems involving the intersection of circles and ellipses. Analytical error propagation techniques such as the Taylor linearization method based on the first-order partial derivatives are not available since explicit functions describing the intersections and their derivatives are unwieldy. However, since we have implicit functions describing prism geometry, we modify this approach using an implicit function theorem that provides the required first-order partials without the explicit expressions. We describe the general method as well as details for the two spatial dimensions case and provide example calculations.     

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.     

Cathodoluminescence of high-pressure feldspar minerals as a shock barometer

Cathodoluminescence (CL) analyses were carried out on maskelynite and lingunite in L6 chondrites of Tenham and Yamato-790729. Under CL microscopy, bright blue emission was observed in Na-lingunite in the shock veins. Dull blue-emitting maskelynite is adjacent to the shock veins, and aqua blue luminescent plagioclase lies farther away. CL spectroscopy of the Na-lingunite showed emission bands centered at ~330, 360–380, and ~590 nm. CL spectra of maskelynite consisted of emission bands at ~330 and ~380 nm. Only an emission band at 420 nm was recognized in crystalline plagioclase. Deconvolution of CL spectra from maskelynite successfully separated the UV–blue emission bands into Gaussian components at 3.88, 3.26, and 2.95 eV. For comparison, we prepared K-lingunite and experimentally shock-recovered feldspars at the known shock pressures of 11.1–41.2 GPa to measure CL spectra. Synthetic K-lingunite has similar UV–blue and characteristic yellow bands at ~550, ~660, ~720, ~750, and ~770 nm. The UV–blue emissions of shock-recovered feldspars and the diaplectic feldspar glasses show a good correlation between intensity and shock pressure after deconvolution. They may be assigned to pressure-induced defects in Si and Al octahedra and tetrahedra. The components at 3.88 and 3.26 eV were detectable in the lingunite, both of which may be caused by the defects in Si and Al octahedra, the same as maskelynite. CL of maskelynite and lingunite may be applicable to estimate shock pressure for feldspar-bearing meteorites, impactites, and samples returned by spacecraft mission, although we need to develop more as a reliable shock barometer.     

Vertical mixing in the bottom mixed layer near the continental shelf break in the East China Sea

The strength of the vertical mixing in the bottom mixed layer near the continental shelf break in the East China Sea was directly measured with the Micro-Scale Profiler (MSP). It has been shown that there is no significant statistical relation between the turbulent energy dissipation and the degree of the stratificationN ². It seems that the vigorous turbulence occurs not constantly but intermittently in the bottom mixed layer so that a large variation of is found depending on the time. In contrast to , the coefficient of the vertical eddy diffusivityK _z is mostly determined byN such thatK _z is large in the bottom mixed layer and small in the thermocline. Large value ofK _z in the bottom mixed layer is also found in the time series ofK _z estimated in terms of Richardson number calculated from the data obtained with electromagnetic current meters. The value ofK _z more than 10 cm²s^–1 frequently occur in the layer of 20–25 m thick just above the bottom.     

Fluid Inclusion Study and Opaque Mineral Assemblage at the Deep and Shallow Part of the Batu Hijau Porphyry Copper-gold Deposit, Sumbawa, Indonesia

The Batu Hijau deposit is the only porphyry type deposit in production in the Sunda‐Banda arc, Indonesia. This study discusses the reason for the localization of copper grade at the deep part of the deposit based on the observation of opaque mineral assemblage. In addition, the formation condition of quartz veins and opaque minerals is discussed on the basis of the fluid inclusion microthermometry. Samples were selected from drill holes SBD100, SBD168, SBD194, SBD254, and SBD257 to cover the wide vertical range. At the Batu Hijau deposit, quartz veins have been classified mainly into four types called A, B, C and D veins, and the A veins contain mainly bornite, often associated with digenite and chalcocite. In addition, magnetite occurs in A veins. However, at the deep part of the deposit, there are quartz veins associated with magnetite, but few copper sulfides such as bornite and chalcopyrite in quartz veins, as observed in SBD257. Quartz veins at depth in SBD257 have abundant magnetite and pyrite. Pyrite in quartz veins at depth in SBD257 mainly occur at the rim of magnetite grains or interstices between them. In quartz veins in SBD254, there are abundant copper sulfides such as bornite and chalcopyrite in spite of the depth. Bornite and chalcopyrite occur as inclusions in magnetite grains in quartz veins in SBD254. Pyrite which often occurs in low grade zone in quartz veins in SBD254 is also recognized at the rims of copper sulfides. This indicates that pyrite in SBD257 and SBD254 formed later than magnetite. On the other hand, blebs of bornite and chalcopyrite inclusions in magnetite grains, which are recognized in quartz veins in SBD168 at shallow high grade part, suggest that the hydrothermal fluid, from which magnetite was deposited also brought the copper sulfides such as bornite and chalcopyrite to the deep part of the Batu Hijau deposit. Therefore, it is concluded that initially the high grade ore zone extended to depth without localization. However due to the later overprinting hydrothermal activity, copper sulfides and magnetite were replaced or dissolved and pyrite was formed, resulting the low grade zone at the deep part of the deposit. Dissolution temperatures (Td) of halite obtained by from fluid inclusion microthermometry show significant differences between SBD168 and other drill holes. The high Td obtained in SBD168 may indicate larger volume of NaCl crystals in hydrothermal fluid at the time of entrapment of the fluid inclusions and formation of other opaque minerals such as magnetite and copper‐iron sulfides. It suggests that the ratio of vapor to brine is also higher at the shallow part of the deposit. The higher vapor to brine ratio may suggest a higher degree of boiling. Removal of vapor phase separated from brine during boiling increases the concentration of substances dissolved in the brine, and this will result in saturation, as evidenced by the salinity and NaCl saturation. The higher degree of boiling suggested by the higher vapor to brine ratio at shallow part may have increased the copper concentration in the brine that may have lead the saturation, resulted in the deposition of copper‐bearing minerals.     

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

Four policies might close the gap between the global GHG emissions expected for 2020 on the basis of current (2013) policies and the reduced emissions that will be needed if the long-term global temperature increase can be kept below the 2 °C internationally agreed limit. The four policies are (1) specific energy efficiency measures, (2) closure of the least-efficient coal-fired power plants, (3) minimizing methane emissions from upstream oil and gas production, and (4) accelerating the (partial) phase-out of subsidies to fossil-fuel consumption. In this article we test the hypothesis of the International Energy Agency (IEA) that these policies will not result in a loss of gross domestic product (GDP) and we estimate their employment effects using the E3MG global macro-econometric model. Using a set of scenarios we assess each policy individually and then consider the outcomes if all four policies were implemented simultaneously. We find that the policies are insufficient to close the emissions gap, with an overall emission reduction that is 30% less than that found by the IEA. World GDP is 0.5% higher in 2020, with about 6 million net jobs created by 2020 and unemployment reduced.

Policy relevance

The gap between GHG emissions expected under the Copenhagen and Cancun Agreements and that needed for emissions trajectories to have a reasonable chance of reaching the 2 °C target requires additional policies if it is to be closed. This article uses a global simulation model E3MG to analyse a set of policies proposed by the IEA to close the gap and assesses their macroeconomic effects as well as their feasibility in closing the gap. It complements the IEA assessment by estimating the GDP and employment implications separately by the different policies year by year to 2020, by major industries, and by 21 world regions.     

Variations in turbulent energy dissipation and water column stratification at the entrance of a tidally energetic strait

We observed tidal currents, turbulent energy dissipation and water column stratification at the entrance of a narrow strait (Neko Seto) in the Seto Inland Sea, Japan, using a free-falling turbulent microstructure profiler (TurboMAP) and acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP). The variation in turbulent energy dissipation at the entrance of the strait was not at quarter-diurnal frequency but at semi-diurnal frequency; turbulent energy dissipation was enhanced during the ebb tide, although it was moderate during the flood tide. This result is consistent with the results of Takasugi (1993), which showed the asymmetry of tidal energy loss during a semidiurnal tidal cycle using control volume analysis. It is suggested that significant turbulent energy dissipation is generated in the strait, which influences the properties of water outside the strait when tidal currents flow out from the strait.     

Fine‐structures of planar deformation features in shocked olivine: A comparison between Martian meteorites and experimentally shocked basalts as an indicator for shock pressure

We performed shock recovery experiments on an olivine‐phyric basalt at shock pressures of 22.2–48.5 GPa to compare with shock features in Martian meteorites (RBT 04261 and NWA 1950). Highly shocked olivine in the recovered basalt at 39.5 and 48.5 GPa shows shock‐induced planar deformation features (PDFs) composed of abundant streaks of defects. Similar PDFs were observed in olivine in RBT 04261 and NWA 1950 while those in NWA 1950 were composed of amorphous lamellae. Based on the present results and previous studies, the width and the abundance of lamellar fine‐structures increased with raising shock pressure. Therefore, these features could be used as shock pressure indicators while the estimated pressures may be lower limits due to no information of temperature dependence. For Martian meteorites that experienced heavy shocks, the minimum peak shock pressures of RBT 04261 and NWA 1950 are estimated to be 39.5–48.5 GPa and 48.5–56 GPa, respectively, which are found consistent with those estimated by postshock temperatures expected by the presence of brown olivine. We also investigated shock‐recovered basalts preheated at 750 and 800 °C in order to check the temperature effects on shock features. The results indicate a reduction in vitrifying pressure of plagioclase and a pressure increase for PDFs formation in olivine. Further temperature‐controlled shock recovery experiments will provide us better constraints to understand and to characterize various features found in natural shock events.     

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C)

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) was flown on a NASA sounding rocket on 11 July 2012. The goal of the Hi-C mission was to obtain high-resolution (≈?0.3?–?0.4′′), high-cadence (≈?5 seconds) images of a solar active region to investigate the dynamics of solar coronal structures at small spatial scales. The instrument consists of a normal-incidence telescope with the optics coated with multilayers to reflect a narrow wavelength range around 19.3 nm (including the Fe xii 19.5-nm spectral line) and a 4096×4096 camera with a plate scale of 0.1′′?pixel^?1. The target of the Hi-C rocket flight was Active Region 11520. Hi-C obtained 37 full-frame images and 86 partial-frame images during the rocket flight. Analysis of the Hi-C data indicates the corona is structured on scales smaller than currently resolved by existing satellite missions.